Jim Carroll's blog

A truly staggering, transformative trend yet to unfold

2008-09-04T12:41:26Z

It's been announced that I will be a keynote speaker at the World HealthCare Innovation & Technology Conference, to be held in Washington, DC in December. In particular, I'll be taking a look at the importance of one of the most significant trends that is just starting to unfold.

Twenty years from now, most people will look back and realize that right about now, we had three huge, transformative trends underway: device connectivity, geo-connectivity, and bio-connectivity

Essentially, everything around is about to become linked in -- every device that surrounds your life. My home thermostat is linked to the Internet, and that has changed the scope of how I interact with energy.

Layered on top of device connectivity is spatial intelligence for each device -- vis-a-vis Google Maps types of applications. Think about new forms of energy management built upon sophisticated geographic mapping applications.

Add to this the fact that this type of technology will migrate to devices that will help us better manage complex health circumstances.

I've been writing and speaking about the idea of bio-connectivity and the concept of "hyper-connectivity" for over a decade (before Nortel lamely built a lame marketing campaign around the latter phrase a year ago.) It remains one of the most significant trends that will yet unfold in the health care sector. Our concept of health care delivery will be forever transformed.

Simply put, link the scope of the looming health care crisis to the momentum that will come from Silicon Valley for medical device connectivity, and there are some pretty powerful things happening. Think about what happens as spatial device connectivity comes to everyday things around you -- such as a baseball bat! Read more below. There's a lot going on in this space, and you'd do well to understand it.

Opportunity through the next decade is going to be found by those who will adjust and adapt buisness models, attitudues, structures, methodologies and capabilities to this new reality.

More information:

HealthCare Innovation & Technology Conference
Read about what happens When Thermostats get connected
Read the article about bio-connectivity, The Doctor is in around the clock
Read the article Minds of their own
Read "Bioconnectivity and the rapid emergence of new markets"
Read the article Command and Control - Opportunity Awaits Companies that Master Hyperconnectivity

High velocity globalization - massive markets, major trends

2008-09-02T14:02:07Z

I'm hitting the ground running this week, with an opening keynote presentation for a global legal firm, who are holding their annual shareholders / partners conference in Las Vegas.

I've got about 800 commercial lawyers in the room; many of whom are experts in very specific niches involving real estate, financial deals, intellectual property, commercial legal issues and other areas of commercial law. All of which are segments of the economy that are being impacted by high velocity change.

My talk is focused on one key trend: in order to keep at the edge of the curve, the firm will have to position itself where it's clients are going. And increasingly, those clients are getting onto the globalization bandwagon -- they're focusing on the emergence of new markets, new opportunities and new economies. And it isn't just BRIC (Brazil, India and China that they the are looking at, from the key trends within my keynote:

Goldman Sachs has identified that the next growth sector will come from the "Next 11" economies -- those that are going to see a rapid transition and growth. These are Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, South Korea, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, Turkey, and Vietnam
Almost a billion new consumers will enter the global marketplace in the next decade .... with an income level that allows spending on discretionary goods - McKinsey
By 2013, consumer spending power in emerging economies could match the spending power of Western Europe - McKinsey
The ranks of the middle class will swell by 1.8 billion to become 52% of total population, up from 30% today - McKinsey

The law firm, which has a heavy presence in the US and Europe, will increasingly find that their clients are moving into these hot new growth markets. I'll use as an example Molex, a US manufacturer of "electrical connectors," who has seen results from their own globalization strategy:

80% of sales are now from abroad
they just had record sales of $3.59 billion
6-7% of sales is committed to R&D
30% of current sales comes from new products developed in last 3 years
sales are up 8.5% year over year
59% of it sales are in Asia, and 2/3 of its 59 manufacturing facilities are abroad

In other words, if your clients are aggressively globalizing, as a legal firm you need to do so as well -- and do it fast.

Is there a future for associations?

2008-08-29T12:13:11Z

Association Magazine has published my article, Metamorphosis: A Defining Success Factor for Associations.

A huge number of my keynote presentations are for professional, industry, trade or other associations. All of them are faced with some serious challenges -- a decline in membership, an inability to maintain their relevance, or a lack of capability to innovate in terms of program delivery.

The article takes a look at the obvious trends which are to impact associations in the years to come. I don't hold back any punches, opening with these words:

We know we live in a world in which new trends change everything we know at a furious pace. Rapid change envelopes us, consumes us, and pounds us with its reminders of its urgency every single day. There are many obvious trends that impact us; we often refuse or are incapable of assessing their impact.
And so the future marches on, and many associations remain stuck in a rut of complacency. They deliver the same old program. They focus on the same old issues, generate the same old knowledge, plan the same old conference, and have their agenda managed by the same old membership has-beens.
Meanwhile, they bemoan the fact that membership is declining; that the Millenials seem to have little time or inclination to join them; and that the world is just becoming, well, too complex to deal with.
So they form a committee, hire a consultant, study the issue, and lull themselves into a false sense of future-security.
By doing so, they are almost guaranteeing themselves a march into oblivion.

This article is a must read for any association executive today. Quite often, the trends that will impact us are right in front of us. This article puts those trends into perspective. In doing so, it provides a good framework as to how to start some innovative thinking in order to deal with those trends.

Read the articles

Metamorphosis: A Defining Success Factor for Associations
Are you prepared for the new role associations will play

Innovation -- in the most wonderful places

2008-08-27T14:03:30Z

Well, I'm back from summer holidays, and the keynote in Australia was a particular bit of fun. Sydney is a dazzling modern and efficient city -- some of its' infrastructure put other global cities to shame.

After Sydney, my family and I went up the east coast of Australia, to several locations. It was at Mission Beach -- sugar cane and banana tree country -- where we found local sugar cane farmers visiting the beach on Sunday, their day off.

I thought their approach and methodology to be particularly innovative! After all, you might as well use the same vehicle for leisure activities as you do for the work week.

I'm back in action, and have a heavy month of high profile keynotes coming up, on which I will post later.

Why innovation thrives in the building of sandcastles

2008-07-18T20:03:54Z

I'm off to keynote an event in Sydney, Australia; and after that, two weeks of family time in the tropics of Australia.

Years ago, inspired by similar times, I wrote about how innovation thrives in the building of sandcastles. It was a great post -- it made it into BusinessWeek. I thought it a fitting post to leave here while I'm away.

I will still be answering email and checking calls, but could just be a touch slow.

With that line of thinking,. here's my list of "10 Reasons Why Innovation Thrives in the Building of Sandcastles: and What We Can Learn From Such Creativity."

Hierarchy has disappeared: In most cases, there isn't a boss, a reporting structure, or anything else that can cause organizational sclerosis. People just pitch in and do what needs to be done. The lack of a hierarchy is implicit to most successful teams.
Creativity is implicit: Anyone can build a sandcastle. There are no rules or preconceived notions, other than some sand and water. The same thinking should drive corporate innovation efforts. Make do with what you've got and what you can find, and use creativity as your main asset.
If it doesn't work the first time, do it again: It's inevitable that a rogue wave will destroy your work. This only encourages you to fix the design, or rebuild it altogether. Setbacks are meaningless, and indeed, are part of the plan.
Experience doesn't cloud insight: Parents listen to kids, kids get bored and move on to another rampart and do something awesome. The key to sandcastle building is the combined insight of several different generations: likely one of the most important foundations for success in corporate innovation today. (See my 10 Ideas post for more on this theme.)
Everyone picks up on the passion: People just join in and help to build. Eventually beach-neighbors join in, and the growing castle becomes a big collaborative effort. Organizations that can build similar levels of interest in the concept of innovation don't simply succeed: they exceed!
Feedback is instant: You know right away how well your design works, particularly if it is at the waters edge, since everyone will make a comment on it as they walk by. That parallels' the instantaneity of today's markets: things are changing so fast, that you must have a constant ear tuned in to understand what your customers are telling you.
Competition is easily scoped: Need new ideas? Want to learn from the competition? Spend a few minutes walking up and down the beach and check out the other sandcastles. Study their design, their assumptions, and see how you can improve upon them. Do the same in the corporate world: develop a finely tuned radar that signals to you how and where your world is changing.
No idea is too dumb: There's not a lot of criticism and bias in the building of sandcastles. Any idea is welcomed. People can contribute the skills they have. Everyone is a designer, a builder and an owner. Somehow the combination just works.
The reward is clear: At the end of the day, a great sandcastle provides a sense of accomplishment. Photos are taken, and the team talks about the experience. That's why every innovation effort needs to be celebrated, highlighted, and championed into the corporate record.
It's fun: Enough said. If an organization approaches a problem the same way, innovation and creativity can thrive.

Faster is the new fast -- also in auto

2008-07-15T19:16:38Z

One of the key tenets of my book, Ready, Set, Done -- How to Innovate When Faster is the New Fast,is that organizational "agility" is a fundamental cornerstone for future success.

It doesn't matter who you are or what you do -- fast defines success.

A few years ago, I spent time with management of a big car company. I don't think they got the concept.

Then there's Honda. Read this story about one of their Canadian plants -- and ponder on this sentence:

"Honda's assembly lines can switch models in as little as 10 days, spokesman Sakae Uruma said. By contrast, it could take months for most rivals to make the same change."

While certain sectors of the auto economy are in turmoil, others are in growth mode. One of the defining reasons being, they've structured themselves to act and change quickly. As big truck sales plummet, fast movers like these pick up the slack.

There's some very important food for thought here. Faster is the new fast.

More information

Read As others slow, Honda ramps up
The new face of manufacturing : agility, insight and execution...

Advice for a flat world - taking your skills to a global audience

2008-07-14T13:37:11Z

One of my July columns takes a look at the idea of taking your skills to a global audience.

Years ago, I wrote about the concept of "nomadic workers," individuals who rejected the traditional concept of a job, and instead, carve out their own unique career path, mostly contingent, contract, short-term and invariably fascinating.

These are the modern day knowledge-Bedouins -- they roam the digital planet, offering their works and unique knowledge up to a global client base. I've been doing it for eighteen years.

One statistic I use in a number of keynotes observes that some 60% of engineers and architects are expected to be working on a contingent basis by 2012. That's a huge number -- and is indicative of our onward march to a massively nomadic workforce.

Read the article here

Soccer moms, text messaging, and the inevitability of virtuality

2008-07-09T18:32:43Z

A few weeks ago, I arrived in my hotel room, and connected back to my home office via Skype. I found my sons using my Mac (long story!), and proceeded to have a one-hour video conference with them.

During this time, I ordered room service, my dinner arrived, and I ate it. All this time they played a variety of video games, worked on homework, and I unpacked my suitcase and organized my stuff.

All the while, we chatted back and forth. My youngest son made a comment at one point: "it's just like you're at home."

That's the thing about this next generation and their concept of "where is "there"." To date, few organizations have really taken to videoconferencing and other forms of virtuality ; yet as today's 15 year old enters the workforce in the next decade, that is all set to change.

One of the most significant trends I cover in my "What Comes Next" trends perspective is this one: "Resistance retires." It's worth a read -- simply put, within 10 years, much of the workforce will have grown up with technology, and the pace of how different the workplace, workforce, structure of the organization, structure of the working day, and everything else, is just going to be torn apart and rebuilt.

You can see the signs of the aging of Gen-Connect with today's new "wired soccer mom." Alabama's Times Daily just ran an article examining the phenomena, and I'm quoted liberally thorughout the article:

Jim Carroll, a futurist, trends and innovations expert, said moms between 25 and 32 grew up right along with the technology that enables them to communicate via text. Edmonton, who lives in Ford City, is 31.
"It's technology that's been around for between 10 and 12 years, so they probably started texting when they were kids in nightclubs, and now they're the parents with little ones," he said.
For those who didn't grow up with it, texting might not ever catch on, Carroll said, and e-mail will remain the way to communicate electronically.
Already, text messaging, which is known in the wireless world as SMS, or short message service, has been adapted for weather and safety alerts on college campuses in the U.S. as well as a violence prevention tool in Kenya, Africa.
So much of this, Carroll contends, is a result of people such as his 12- and 14-year-old sons growing up using the technology and finding ways to apply it in the real world.
"We're seeing this come into the work force and influence the way we think, act and communicate, and you'll see that these younger users won't think a thing about sending a text to a peer in the business community or even a young doctor preferring to send a text to a patient," he said.

The key point is, anything is on the table, and were in for massive changes in the workplace because of simple demographic change.

More information:

The reality of future trends: grab the What Comes Next trends overview
Times Daily artilce Submit it in writing: Popularity of text messaging on rise

Starbuck's Icarus moment .....

2008-07-07T15:18:21Z

I'm quoted in a Reuters article that has run in the Washington Post, Globe and Mail, and the Sydney MX among a few, that comments on the recent woes of Starbuck's.

Titled "Not everyone's crying in their lattes for Starbucks; There's a schadenfreude among some coffee drinkers who think the java giant got too big too fast," the article looks at how some people seem to be enjoying Starbucks in its Icarus moment.

My comments?

The schadenfreude of coffee drinkers drawing satisfaction from another's misfortune is part of the popular culture that enjoys the downfall of companies or celebrities, said Jim Carroll, a Mississauga-based trends and innovation expert.
"There are a lot of people out there who take delight in seeing an icon torn down by the masses," he said.
Starbucks fell victim to a rapid change in attitude, fuelled by Internet bloggers complaining endlessly about everything from layoffs to its breakfast sandwiches, he said.
"Starbucks was a cool brand, and then all of a sudden it's not a cool brand," he said. "There's this new global consciousness that is out there that can suddenly shift."

This is exactly what I write about in my book Ready, Set, Done: How to Innovate When Faster is the New Fast. Indeed, one chapter talks about how in this era of very fast change, a brand can go from "hero to zero" in a matter of months, or even less. That's partially what we are witnessing here.

The key thing today is velocity: business is impacted by rapid consumer change, product change, business model change, cost challenges, market change. The phrase I've been using for years is "volatility is the new normal." Realize that, and build your innovation strategy around that, and you'll be set for the types of challenges that will come your way.

This is particularly true with issues of branding : brand perceptions can change very quickly today, and I don't think many organizations are prepared for that. Just look at how quickly any brand equity left attached to the US auto industry has evaporated!

More Information:

Buy Ready, Set, Done: How to Innovate When Faster is the New Fast
Blog post: Your Customers Are High Velocity: Are You?
Is your brand from the olden days?

Get Fest-ed! Adding some life to your annual conference or event....

2008-06-26T13:09:23Z

I've had a new article published for Association Executives for the CSAE, about how you can innovate and jazz-up your annual meeting or conference. Here's an extract:

Does your conference marketing suck? Maybe it does, and you don't know it.
People today don't want to go to an "annual conference" and attend "plenary sessions." Kids (and today's 30-40 somethings -- the demographic you increasingly want to get to attend!) go to FESTIVALS.
I think they're expecting the same brand image velocity for the conferences or events that they might attend. Would you rather go to the "121st Annual Tree Farmers Association Annual Meeting and Trade Show?"
Or would you rather go to "TreeFest 2009 - The Place Where Tree People Rock!

Me, I'm all for idea of TreeFest!

Read the article Get Fest-ed!

Extreme skills: what happens when knowledge runs out?

2008-06-24T19:06:35Z

I'm in Vancouver, about to deliver a keynote to a global professional services firm, with the working title, "Extreme Skills Specialization: What Comes Next with Global Talent, Global Organizations?"

The working description goes like this: "The future of every career is either extremely specialized, or massively general. Most professions are fragmenting into dozens, if not hundreds or thousands of specialities. Someone needs to understand all this, and help organizations tap into narrow bands of knowledge."

This is a major trend, and perhaps one of the defining trends of the next 10 years. Here's how I'm presenting the challenges to my audience today:

the ability to assist your clients with high-velocity change will be a key success factor
because of this, the ability to find, attract utilize and retain ever more narrow niche skills will be critical, for both your clients, and yourself.
the ability to scale up and scale down your resource base will define your clients success, and your own.
our ability to access and deploy unique skills at high velocity, globally, forming project oriented teams that last but a short time, will be key.

Think about these challenges in the context of your own organization. Ask your this questions: "what's the depth of your bench strength?"

Then ask this question: "what do you need to do, from a unique structural perspective, to increase and improve your bench strength, particularly as skills become more specialized, scarce and hard to access." There's probable room for lots of innovative thinking there!

Is there hope for manufacturing? You bet!

2008-06-20T11:43:32Z

I'm in Milwaukee today, speaking at a private group of manufacturers from across the country, who work within a particular industry.

The theme, to a broad degree, is the future of manufacturing in the US. I'm covering a huge variety of trends and issues, but two notable themes stand out:

manufacturing is alive and well for those who have or who are transitioning out of competing with low cost off-shore competitors. Instead, those who are focused on higher-value products that carry important and intrinsic value for the consumer are, by and large, doing ok
accomplishing this involves innovation: with business models, skills and capabilities of staff in the manufacturing facility, branding, marketing -- with a whole series of things.

Typical news coverage of the sector is all doom-and-gloom. That's not quite true; there's a lot of pain out there, but there are many who are undergoing a real transition. Did you know Brooks Brothers makes most of its ties in NYC? "Of course we could go to China and make a tie less expensively ....But that's missing the whole point" commented Joe Dixon, Brooks senior VP of Production, in a recent trade publication. "We do a lot on the fly, which would be hard to do offshore," states Lauren Rowen, Director of Manufacturing. They are focused on rapid style turnover, fast time to market, short logistics. You can't do that if you are tying up your inventory on a container ship somewhere.

Here's an interesting thought about Indiana -- a recent study suggested that the "top 25 manufacturing companies have consistently outperformed the DJIA"; "job losses...have largely run their course..." ; "employment will stay steady or expand slightly for next two years or beyond" ; "ranked first in investment-per-worker and private sector R&D". In other words, they're not doing too bad. A lot of companies are gone and going, but a 2nd tier has transitioned to the new manufacturing.

I think we're at a watershed point with manufacturing trends. The reality is, there is plenty of life left in the American manufacturing sector, for those who are choosing to move to what I might call Manufacturing 2.0 -- focused on agility, flexibility, fast time to market, automation, mass customization: a whole series of attitudes and capabilities.

There's a wider issue here too: we're at the point that many Asian, Chinese and Pacific region manufacturers are going to find that the price of oil, and their inability to act-fast, will be two things that will make them less competitive. They are going to have to focus on rapidity of action, and as I understand it, many of them aren't positioning with the sophisticated I/T infrastructure and deep insight that other companies in the US and Europe have put in place. So while their advantage has been low cost, they might not have the scalability, flexibility and automation that others are putting in.

To trasnsition to manufacturing 2.0, you have to make BIG BETS. Molex, an electrical manufacturer did, investing $125 million in process transformation. They state they saw a 36 million payback through year one, and expect perhaps a $100 million payback year two. Post flat strategies aren't for the feint of heart, but the payback can be real.

In other words, it might be renaissance time in manufacturing, if you do the right things, and make the big bets. Spend some time reading the manufacturing posts on this blog, and maybe you'll find some of the insight and encouragement that you need.

Computational analytics is another new plastic!

2008-06-19T13:47:03Z

At my keynote to the US Association of Actuaries this week, and for a keynote to LOMA last week (an insurance association conference), I played a series of maps that showed the rapid emergence of obesity in the US population from 1995 to the present day, The maps were provided by the Insurance Information Institute.

I challenged the audience to think about what will happen through the next five years: we will see the emergence of "location intelligence dashboards" that will allow such professionals, to examine in real time, the emergence of new risk factors in their industry.

Location intelligence is coming about as organizations learn to link massive stores of information and research to spatial -- or map oriented (i.e. Google Maps) information. An entire new profession is emerging at the same time -- location intelligence professionals.

This is part of an overall sweeping trend, in which computational analytics play a massive role in the emergence of new careers, businesses and industries. We are entering a time that involves the rapid processing of massive stores of information and unique new ways of analyzing information.I talk about this extensively in my future oriented keynotes and is a topic that is covered in several trends documents on my site.

More information

Read about "location intelligence" in Five More Trends To Define Your Future
Analytics is hot : "What comes next?"
Insurance Information Institute report 0- Obesity, Liability, and Insurance
Directions Magazine - The Worldwide Source for Geospatial Technology

Transitioning the global economy

2008-06-18T14:04:20Z

There are a zillion fast, zippy cool trends out there. And then, there are the big, sweeping, massive transformative trends that change entire economies.

I just finished writing an article for an executive publcation. Here's one reality I pointed out: at a fundamental level, we are witnessing a massive global leveling of wealth throughout the world. Within the decade, the MidEast, Asia, India and China will have had billions of people move into the middle class; North America's will have witnessed a global equalization in the concept of consumption and standard of living.

The scope of the movement of global wealth is staggering. The OECD estimates that global sovereign wealth funds (Dubai, Singapore, China, etc) are currently worth some $3 trillion; within 5 years, they will triple growth to $10 trillion. If oil stays higher than $70, they will be worth some $15 trillion by 2018.

Let's put that in perspective. Some of these SWF's participated in the recent bail out of several Wall Street financial powerhouses, including liquidity investments in CitiBank, Merrill Lynch, Barclays, Bear Stearns (deceased), UBS, Credit Suisse, and the CIBC.

Their total investment? $100 billion. Pocket change.

In other words, North America is becoming but a pipsqueak player in the global economy. That's why faster is the new fast; organizations that learn to think and DO differently, and who can discover the opportunity unfolding around them in a massive global economy, will be those to thrive in the decade to come. It's a huge trend, and it's one that has massive implications.

It's about strategy-post-flat.

More information

Global Economic Trends: An Interview with Jim Carroll
"Where's the growth: Global innovation strategies for the long term"

Who's hot? Actuaries are hot!

2008-06-16T18:15:05Z

I just came back from delivering the opening keynote for the annual meeting of the US Association of Actuaries. This crowd is the risk assessment side of the US life insurance industry, and given the rapid pace of change, their job has become much more difficult through the last several years.

They know that. They also know that there are many who don't understand the critical role that they play, and so they set out to change that last year, by refocusing on a re-branding of the profession.

It turns out that they did a great job, having just picked up the Corporate Branding Campaign of the Year 2008 from PR Week magazine, even beating out "uber-cool" Tesla Motors.

The re-branding campaign fits with the challenges they are faced with : as the economy speeds up, they have to continually migrate their skills, capabilities and knowledge in order to continually assess new and more challenging forms of risk. One of those new skills might involve their transitioning to the role of "location intelligence professionals," a trend I've written about here. This would involve learning how to marry the vast stores of information on current policy holders to the vast sources of "spatial" (think Google Maps) information emerging online, to come up new forms of assessing insurance risk.

For example, during my keynote, I played a one minute movie of a US map that featured the emergency of obesity in the US population over a 25 year period beginning in 1993. I suggested they might view this, and think about what they could do if they had this type of insight as a "location intelligence capability" on their desktop.

They're a hot profession, because analytics is hot, mathematics is the new plastic, and they're in the midst of it. It should be a fun ride for them!

More information

Read about "location intelligence" in Five More Trends To Define Your Future
Analytics is hot : "What comes next?"