Live poll - When will we see an economic recovery? I'm doing a keynote for a leading global loyalty management company on Thursday; I'll be incorporating several live text message polls into the talk, in order to have a truly interactive experience on the stage -- this is something I do quite often.
In advance, I'm running a brief test of the polling service I use. Please participate in this poll to help me ensure I've got things scaled correctly.
POLL NOW CLOSED; THESE ARE THE FINAL RESULTS!
Simply use your cell phone to send in a text message to 99503, with the text response (i.e. ONEYEAR) in the body of your message (no charge for the poll from me!) or go to http://poll4.com on your Web browser and type in the one word response.
Keep an eye on this blog entry, as the results should update dynamically.
N.B. The chart is small; we've contacted tech support to see if we can scale it!
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Video - "The time to invest in the future is now!"
Enough said. Get over it. Get out and innovate.
Think growth!
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A conscious decision - don't take part in this recession!
I led a small workshop last week after an event, focused on the issue of "how can we establish opportunities for growth during an economic downturn."
The cover of my handout was titled, "It's January 15, 2020: What did we do to move through the great recession of 2009." Inside, I presented a number of scenarios that challenged the participants to think about innovation strategies that could be pursued right now, in order to provide that growth.
The concept resonated extremely strongly. All around me, I see opportunities for growth in a wide variety of industries. And what is becoming obvious is that some organizations are aggressively adopting strategies that involve "aggressive innovation" to change their direction now, rather than later.
Since last year, when the recession began, I've seen some of the best and worst approaches to how organizations are dealing with the challenges in the economy. And I go back to a previous blog post, in which I identified a list of 10 more things that smart, innovative companies do to create an overall sense of innovation-purpose. It's still a great list, and is worth repeating.
- Heighten the importance of innovation. One major client with several billons in revenue has 8 senior VP's who are responsible for innovation. And the fact is, they don't just walk the talk -- they do it. The message to the rest of the company? Innovation is critical -- get involved.
- Create a compelling sense of urgency. With product lifecycles compressing and markets witnessing fierce competition, now is not the time for studies, committee meetings and reports. It's time for action. Simply do things. Now. Get it done. Analyze it later to figure out how to do it better next time.
- Ignite each spark. Innovative leaders know that everyone in the organization has some type of unique creativity and talent. They know how to find it, harness it, and use it to advantage.
- Re-evaluate the mission. You might have been selling widgets five years ago, but the market doesn't want widgets anymore. If the world has moved on, and you haven't, it is time to re-evaluate your purpose, goals and strategies. Rethink the fundamentals in light of changing circumstances.
- Build up experiential capital. Innovation comes from risk, and risk comes from experience. The most important asset today isn't found on your balance sheet -- it is found in the accumulated wisdom from the many risks that you've taken. The more experiential capital you have, the more you'll succeed.
- Shift from threat to opportunity. Innovative organizations don't have management and staff who quiver from the fear at what might be coming next. Instead, they're alive from breathing the oxygen of opportunity.
- Banish complacency and skepticism. It's all too easy for an organization, bound by a history of inaction, to develop a defeatist culture. Innovative leaders turn this around by motivating everyone to realize that in an era of rapid change, anything is possible..
- Innovation osmosis. If you don't have it, get it -- that's a good rule of thumb for innovation culture. One client lit a fuse in their innovation culture by buying up small, aggressive, young innovative companies in their industry. They then spent the time to carefully nurture their ideas and harness their creativity.
- Stop selling product, and sell results. The word solution is overused and overdone, but let's face it -- in a world in which everything is becoming a commodity and everyone is focused on price, change the rules of the game. Refuse to play -- by thinking about how to play in a completely new game.
- Create excitement. I don't know how many surveys I saw this year which indicated that the majority of most people in most jobs are bored, unhappy, and ready to bolt. Not at innovative companies! The opportunity for creativity, initiative and purpose results in a different attitude. Where might your organization be on a "corporate happiness index?" If it's low, then you don't have the right environment. Fix that problem -- and fix it quick.
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Where's the growth? Rethinking long term opportunity
I wrote this PDF report last spring, before the recession set in. Yet I still think it makes for a lot of powerful arguments as to where we will see industrial and market growth in the future.
From the introduction: Gloom has set in on global markets. Volatility rages. Some organizations have gone into a mode of "aggressive indecision," deferring action while they try to figure out "what comes next." A pretty lousy strategy that is doomed to fail in the longer term.
Future oriented leaders understand the reality of growth. They know that we live in a time in which opportunities for growth abound. They've aligned the mission of the organization so that they are capitalizing on real opportunity, not short term economic challenges.
Growth is everywhere
It's easy during a time of economic volatility to lose sight of where the global economy is really headed. Yet while stock markets might rock, innovation thrives.
New ideas continue to be explored, markets grow, and industries emerge. A variety of trends indicate that opportunities for growth continue to surround us.
- Global food production must double in the next twenty years to match population growth. There's nothing but upside in agriculture!
- New industries and markets continue to emerge as advancements in the science behind energy, infrastructure, connectivity and health care drive fascinating new areas of growth.
- Many simple and obvious trends drive growth. Generational growth drives the rapid emergence of new markets: by 2020, 17% of the global population will be 65 years or older. Someone will sell a lot of phones with really big buttons!
Think growth. Think opportunity. Innovate for future, don't stagnate with the past.
More information:
- Read Where's the growth : global innovation opportunities for the long term
- Read Infrastructure is the new plastic
- Read 7 Things to Do Right Now as the Upturn Begins
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10 Things You Need to Do to Innovate in a Recession
Business Week ran an article in January, "10 Worst Innovation Mistakes in a Recession."
It's easy to point out mistakes. It can be harder to indicate what you should be doing.
I've been out speaking to organizations about trends, the future, innovation and creativity for fifteen years. Since last year, when the meltdown began, I've been keynoting events worldwide, rapidly adjusting my theme to one of "how you can innovate during a recession." I've had the opportunity of seeing first hand quite a few very innovative strategies from CEO's and others in a wide variety of events, and I keep modifying my message at rapid speed to incorporate a vast variety of ideas.
So I just took a few minutes to post a comment to the Business Week site, and I'll post my quick thoughts here too. Here's a list of 10 off the top of my head:
1. Focus your team -- relentlessly -- on growth. I keynoted a global organization in Las Vegas in February. The CEO got on stage before me -- and spoke about the recession for one minute. He then spent 19 minutes speaking to the growth opportunities that the organization could pursue. That's what everyone needs to do right now. There are growth opportunities in every industry. Focus on them!
2. Respond faster. When I keynoted a food industry summit in New York, we spoke of the need to respond faster to the fact that consumer preferences were changing more rapidly than ever before. More people eating at home, sensitive to dollars, looking for food-comfort. Reformulate new brand and product options faster. Just do it. Don't study -- do.
3. Invest in the brand. Brands can become weaker in a recession, particularly as consumers scramble for value. Decide where you want to reposition your product/brand, and act fast to do it rather than studying it to death.
4. Mix it up. Don't assume that worked before the recession will work now. Try out a lot of ideas, particularly around value. “I'm experimenting rapidly with price points and product mix."
5. Invest in experience. Lots of your staff will be down in the dumps, and are spinning their wheels. Get a message out that NOW is the time to invest in experience. Try things out, to build up the collective experience of your team.
6. Kill off the innovation killers. Reframe your team, so that they are thinking "what a great idea," rather than viewing with suspicion any new ideas. Remember -- everyone is worried about being laid off, and paranoia sucks the life out of innovation faster than anything else.
7. Collaborate within the industry. When I keynoted the American Nursery and Landscape Association recently, I stood in awe of the blog they were running that was offering practical, on the ground, easy to implement ideas that retailers could put into their stores NOW.
8. Seek ideas. Go knowledge farming once a day, looking for ideas on customer service, operations, IT strategies, and just about anything else. There's a flood of ideas out there -- now's a great time to chase them down and do things.
9. Partner up. Sure, resources are scarcer during a recession. That's why you can speed up innovation with anything -- from advertising, to customer service, business model implementation, IT strategy, opportunities for operational excellence or just about anything else -- by seeking partners to help you out. That will help you achieve key goals faster.
10. Get over it. Lots of organizations are still stuck in the anger and denial phase of the Seven Steps of Economic Grief. Make a decision to get into the acceptance stage, and move on. This will recession will pass, just like every other one.
There are dozens more.....
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"Opportunities 2009" - the workforce of 2020! I was the opening keynote speaker yesterday for Opportunities 2009, a conference in Ontario, Canada, that was focused on workplace trends to 2015.
The keynote description went like this:
What Comes Next: And What Should We Do About It?Is there a future out there? Definitely yes, but a constant drumbeat of negative news can cause people and organizations to lose sight of what will happen with careers and jobs in the future. That's where Jim Carroll comes in -- this noted international futurist, trends & innovation expert spends his time with globally innovative leaders. He's gained keen insight into some of the key trends which will impact industries, organizations and careers in the next few years to come, in a wide variety of industries from health care, to technology and manufacturing, to the skilled trades. Jim is a passionate believer in the reality that every career and profession is in the midst of a transition, and that additional, new careers are being born before our very eyes.
Jim Carroll will challenge you to focus on the opportunities of today and tomorrow, rather than the challenges of the past. Jim will provide an outline of how the economy will evolve from this point out -- and how we should be planning and acting in order to innovate in career development ahead of fast-paced events. He'll provide us a look at "what comes next, and what we should do about it.
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In the coming weeks and days, I've got a lot to blog about this keynote: I took a good hard look at emerging careers, transitioning careers, and how existing careers are changing as a result of ever-increasing velocity.
The talk was extremely well received -- probably because I focused the 700+ people in the room on the opportunities of the future rather than the current economic muck of today.
What was interesting was that for the first time, one of my keynotes was tweeted from the room - you can read the thread here.
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You need to have a relentless focus on growth -- RELENTLESS!
I was interviewed some time last month by FoodProcessing.com - this was related to their discovery of the keynote I did for the Readers Digest / EveryDay with Rachel Ray team food industry summit in New York last fall.
They ran a short article, "March of the New Machines: The Future of Food Processing" -- and ran my comment on what I've seen in terms of CEO's who have relentless focus on growth. Many of my recent keynotes -- several in Las Vegas, Austin, Miami and New York -- have been focused on how to maintain a growth strategies during an economic contraction.
Here's an extract from the interview. Some good food for thought on the need to be RELENTLESS on the future and opportunities.
In a tough economy like this, it's time to hold the line on spending and to be especially cautious of leading-edge technology. Right?The article at FoodProcessing.com itself takes a look at the technologies, production platforms, processes, ideas and methodologies which can provide for innovation in terms of market growth, product development, cost management and other areas. There's no shortage of opportunity for innovation in the food and consumer product sector - or any other industry.History's full of companies that leapt ahead of competitors by increasing spending, especially on innovation, during down times. Jim Carroll (www.jimcarroll.com), author and innovation consultant, recalled a speaking engagement in which he followed the CEO of a global restaurant chain, who spoke for a brief but powerful 20 minutes.
"For the first minute, he spoke about the global economy and the meltdown. He then spent the next 19 minutes identifying eight growth opportunities and how this organization could do great things if they relentlessly obsessed over them.
"How cool is that?" asks Carroll. "All these other companies are retrenching, pulling back, and here's a guy who's saying to his team, 'Let's focus on growth.' "
He says growth plans and strategic if judicious spending is mandatory for managing during a downturn. Companies that aren't paralyzed by total spending freezes can get the jump on those competitors who are. And when the economy is back on track a year or whatever from now, Carroll says only then will we be able to point to companies and say which ones lagged and failed and which ones "took risks and did great things.
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What is missing right now for many organizations is the COURAGE TO TAKE RISKS and INVEST!
Innovators focus on the future, they focus on growth, and they focus their team on opportunity. That's a key message, and you'd do well to obsess over it.
Think growth!
More information:
- Read March of the New Machines: The Future of Food Processing
- Read the RDA Food & Entertainings Consumer Food Symposium summary (PDF)
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When do you innovate? The New Yorker has a great article out, "Hanging tough," about how some companies choose to ensure that they stay innovative in recessionary times.
That's the theme I've been focused on for the last 8 months on stage. Here's a clip from a recent Las Vegas event for a global organization, addressing the theme, "Innovators get out in front of the recession"
People seem to be catching on to the idea that now is not the time to hunker down, but to push forward, innovate, change and adapt. More information
- New Yorker article, "Hanging tough"
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Are you paying attention to your economic brand?
I had a long conversation with a Dubai-based journalist yesterday ; he was seeking my insight for an upcoming article on what a nation, city or economic region should be doing to ensure that it can remain competitive in the global economy in these challenging times.
I spoke to a wide variety of issues, but one theme that I emphasized that one of the most important things that politicians, economic development officers, community leaders, boards of trade executives and others should be thinking about right now was their "brand image." Given the rapidity of the meltdown and changing circumstances, regions that were once seen as vibrant, progressive, growth-oriented, are suddenly finding themselves with a different "brand."
Success in the global economy as the rebound comes about will go to those regions that can continue to draw growth industries, specialized skills, and global attention. That's going to involve a lot of effort to freshen up a brand image that might have been hurt. Or, it will involve ongoing effort to ensure that national or regional attributes are pushed out as part of the branding process. My fear is that with the downturn, some political, civic and business leaders are losing sight of this important reality.
After the call, I dug into this theme a little bit more. Turns out that Dubai had just gone and hired itself to hire a PR firm for a 'makeover." He didn't lead me in our conversation, but I guess I was hitting on a key issue!
Apr 2, 2009 - Dubai has hired London-based public relations expert Finsbury to help the emirate improve its image and offset the effects of the negative media coverage of its economic problems, the Financial Times reported.WPP Group's (LON:WPP) subsidiary Finsbury will be entrusted with handling the emirate's global financial communications amid the downturn that has hit the city state.
-- Dubai hires PR specialist to improve image, British Business Monitor<
Two years ago, I keynoted a global financial conference in the Cayman Islands .... and part of my theme was that one of the key battlegrounds for nations in the 21st century will be the war for talent. Those who can get appropriate momentum behind their "brand" -- that are seen as progressive, fast to change, and rapidly respond to challenges -- will be the ones to thrive. Now with the downturn, that type of thinking is becoming more important than ever before.
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Growth strategies - What I've Seen From the CEO's Here's a brochure extract from another upcoming conference. The theme : "Moving Beyond the Meltdown: Focusing on Growth Through Innovation."
It's been a busy six months since the meltdown.
Throughout this time, I've been keynoting events all over North America, for organizations and events large and small, focused on the theme of innovation and working our way through challenging economic times.
What has been fascinating is that in sharing the stage with a variety of CEO's, for both massive, global organizations and smaller associations and businesses, there are many who share a relentless focus on opportunity.
There's no doubt that there is lot of pain and retraction and pullback out there. But my experience in the last six months indicates to me that there is an equally fast pace of innovative thinking, as to 'what should we be doing with these new realities in which we find ourselves.'
My most favorable moment comes from one particular event: before I went on stage, the CEO of one particular global organization went on to give his "call to action" to his team.
He spoke about the challenges of the global economy for a little less than a minute -- and then went on a fascinating 20 minute outline of the great things that the company could accomplish with revenue growth by focusing on 8 succinct strategies.
I now use his story (and many other similar stories) when I'm on stage, in order to get people thinking about GROWTH again.
What I'm out there talking about are the real, practical strategies that organizations are pursuing to stay focused on opportunity. There are dozens of things I'm seeing happen first hand. Some of the other strategies, off the top of my head (most of which I've written about in this blog):
- act faster to respond to fast changing consumer demands
- innovate locally in a global economy
- focus on customer retention as a core strategy
- go upside down - innovate with supplier partners to achieve faster product or service innovation
- enhance community knowledge - rapidly leverage best practices
- speed up efforts to collaborate internally, and reshape hierarchy to be able to respond to faster change
- innovate with skills access in order to form fast teams
- anticipate customers needs before they know they need them - stay in front of your market
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"Thriving in turbulent times " - interview on Cognos Radio
IBM's Cognos division has put up an interview with me on their BIRadio site, which focuses on business intelligence.
The key theme of the interview: "Author and Innovation Consultant Jim Carroll explains how avoid "aggressive indecision" and why now is the perfect time to forge ahead with new ideas".
Here's an excerpt:
Kelsey Howarth: You write that the danger is an idea recession, or innovation paralysis. Do you think companies are still in that shock phase?Jim Carroll: They're like deer in the headlights. They're so focused on the headlines, they're so focused on, you know, every single twist and turn of what's going on with the economy and if you sit back and you think about the industry you're in, there's probably lots of potential for growth. What we've got to do is we've got to get people beyond this paralysis and get them focused on the future again. You know, I coined the phrase a few years ago when we had the last downturn after, you know, the dotcom collapse. I said that people were going into a state of aggressive indecision. You know, they just decided to not to make decisions about anything. You know, they just, sort of everybody went on pause and I think we have to recognize we've got to get beyond the pause button. We've got to press the play button and start doing things. We have to keep moving forward."
More information
- Access the BI Radio show: Thriving in turbulent times
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Video clip - "How do innovators stay out in front?" Another clip from a recent keynote in Las Vegas.
Quite a few global organizations are bringing me in these days to inspire their leadership team to stay focused on growth, opportunity, and innovation.
In this clip, I talk about these issues, and put some perspective on dealing with challenging economic times.
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Avoiding the idea recession!
Cognos has run an article that I've writen about the importance of not sliding into an "idea recession.
Here's an excerpt:
Given the economic challenges that swirl around us and the rapidity with which the events of the fall of 2008 unfolded, a unique and challenging mindset seemed to quickly envelope many organizations: corporate idea factories were turned off, and innovation paralysis settled in.The result is that we're not just in an economic recession - we're entering another idea recession, similar to what occurred with the last downturn starting in 2001.
Yet in allowing this to happen, many organizations are missing the fact that an economic downturn provides a great opportunity for innovation. After all, companies like Burger King, Microsoft, CNN and FedEx all started up during a recession.
As events continue to unfold and cycnism settles in like a wet blanket, ask yourself this: are you going to focus on the future and opportunities for growth, or are you going to sink yourself by continuing to be immersed in the relentless negativity of current news coverage? Here's another key quote from the article:
The greatest mistake that any organization can make right now is to avoid action. Inertia - real or implied - establishes a culture of inaction, and that can lead organizations down another slippery slope.Challenge yourself on that front. Think GROWTH!
More information:
- Read the article: Rethinking innovation: Is now the time to forge ahead?
- Innovation and the "Seven Stages of Economic Grief?"
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Economic keynotes: "7 Things You Need to Do Right Now."
I was in Louisville, Kentucky yesterday, as the closing speaker for the annual conference of the American Nursery and Landscape Association, This was a repeat booking; they had me in for a management clinic in Vail in 2006. I posted a blog entry, found below, on trends impacting commercial horticulture.
This time, I mostly focused on innovation strategies in a challenged economy. The keynote description pretty well captured the essence of my talk.
They are, in and of themselves, a very fascinating and innovative group. There is a lot of information sharing within the industry on issues of store layout and design ; what works in terms of new products and lines; partnership strategies that can help improve yield within the nursery. And they've certainly seen a lot of the economic damage that has occurred through the last year. But overall, I found an upbeat, eager-to-keep-focused-on-the-future crowd.
And I was thrilled to have so many nice comments from people on my talk -- as we all seemed to end up in the airport departing together!
Here's the keynote description from the conference brochure:
7 Things You Need to Do Right Now to Focus on the Future!
Innovating at high velocity is vital to turning challenge into opportunity. Jim Carroll believes that organizations that focus on staying ahead of fast paced economic trends can "ride this thing out," and can position themselves for growth. It's a fast paced world -- and that's why leading edge organizations are focused on key leadership strategies that provide for a fast paced future.
Innovative organizations succeed by mastering the pace of the new high velocity economy. And in an era of economic challenge, they focus on discovering opportunity! Customer retention strategies become essential, and operational and service excellence is the way to firm up revenue relationships. Watching for, and adapting to, fast-paced consumer trends is critical in order to discover fast moving retail opportunities. Aligning staff towards a common goal of collaboration and insight becomes a key method of keeping in touch with the pulse of the customer base. In this closing keynote, noted futurist, trends & innovation expert Jim Carroll will challenge you to focus on the opportunities of today and tomorrow, rather than the challenges of the past. Jim will provide an outline of how the economy will evolve from this point out -- and how we should be planning and acting in order to innovate ahead of fast-paced events. He'll provide us a look at "what comes next, and what we should do about it."Jim's client list includes the BBC, the Walt Disney Corporation, and Readers Digest Food & Entertainment group, the publisher of Everyday with Rachel Ray.
More information:
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"I'll pay you a premium if you can save me money!"
That's the new value proposition for today, and you'll do well to think about the phrase as you look to grow or maintain your top line.
The number one concern for many organizations today (beyond mere survival for some) is cost reduction.
If you can give them the chance to do this quickly, they'll be willing to pay you a premium to do so.
This line of thinking came to line when I spent time two weeks ago in Silicon Vally. I was there to speak to a group of CIO's from throughout the hi-tech industry.
I met a client from a few years back in the hotel lobby while checking in. He's now involved in a different IT venture. While catching up on things, I realized that this was the exact value proposition that his new organization was selling.
They've got a solution that, when implemented, can help organizations save quite a bit of money on their overall technology spend, Given the scope of the potential savings, and the fact that this company has maintained growth despite economic turmoil, they've got a key innovation strategy nailed.
You can learn from this line of thinking. The key things to think about:
- how can you partner up with your customers to help them achieve cost savings with what they do?
- how can you help them quickly achieve those cost savings : faster, say, than in the alternate economy of a few months past? Remember, faster is better.
- are there changes that you might make to your product/service line that can help to accelerate cost savings?
- can you innovate like mad -- thinking about what you do and how you do it -- to generate cost savings for those who rely upon you? you do it -- to generate cost savings for those who rely upon you?
Think about it in the context of any industry. If you are in travel/hospitality, and you offer cost savings with what you are selling, you've got a leg up on the competition. If you are selling a service, get the potential cost savings that the service provides out front, and clearly defined -- highlight them. If you are selling an industry solution, re-examine the cost savings that your solution provides -- and see what you can do to make them bigger.
Think about the phrase, and look for opportunity in it.
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The economy and leadership: strategy meetings are happening NOW
I continue to see a lot of activity with inquiries and bookings for senior management / CEO leadership meetings.
This confirms my belief, which I have been posting in this blog, that there are many organizations out there who are determined to stay ahead of fast paced economic trends. Here's an example of a client request that came through this morning; they are looking for insight on:
- how can an organization succeed given the current world and marketplace realities by thinking and doing things differently relative to the following:
- how to use, and deploy and share resources in new creative ways from a variety of places to serve the most critical needs or during the most critical times
- how to employ a a non-traditional structure or organization design that is creative, flexible, different and nimble to support critical business priorities
- how to leverage key capabilities in new and different ways, either through developing them internally, outsourcing them or partnering in a type of hybrid manner
- someone who will provide a thought provoking point of view, with inspiration around new and different approaches to achieving the above
- can speak to trends in this topic arena, yet also cite some examples of companies that are acting or behaving in some of these innovative ways to achieve results
- someone who can push the thought agenda yet provide information that is deemed doable, possible, realistic and not too extreme of an approach
- a person who can deliver the information in a small group/ intimate setting with a "working session" format vs a large key note "speaker" address forum
I'm off later today to keynote just such a leadership meeting for a major accounting firm in the DC area; I just returned from Palo Alto where I gave a similar talk to a high-level group of Silicon Valley executives. More on that particular talk later, because I've been busy writing a post about "what comes next with tech."
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10 fundamental trends that don't change with the meltdown
You and I know that the headline on the left is going to run in newspapers and mainstream media one day. The BIG question is when.
So what are the trends that will drive future growth? Off the top of my head, there are several:
- growth markets will continue to emerge. Back in the 19th century, the head of the US Patent Office stated that "everything that can be invented has been invented." Such silliness. Right now, there are hundreds of thousands of new products, markets, industries and ideas being built and explored. The future isn't over. It's arrival has just slowed to a degree.
- leaders in existing markets will grow through innovation. My own gut feel is that there are a lot of organizations out there approaching this recession differently. They're innovating in their markets; they're working on customer retention; they're investing in customer service in order to keep competitive; they're talking about how to grow in a down market. I'm certainly seeing this given my advance bookings going forward. People want to talk about innovation and the future. That's a great sign that the recovery is underway.
- health care will see significant transformation, not to mention spending: health care is transitioning to a system of predictive medicine. This is a huge, long term, 20 year trend, but has big implications with the emergence of new careers, industries, professions, and companies -- DNA based medicine is a massive change. On top of that, the mere level of spending that is going to occur in managing the looming health care crisis will drive all kinds of growth, though the funding part of the equation will remain a big problem. The result? Lots of innovative thinking as to how to solve huge problems with unique solutions.
- green and energy will continue have more momentum. Some argue that the meltdown will defer everything having to do with these two efforts. I disagree; I think the corporate sector has discovered the cost benefit that comes from green projects, and so they will continue to invest, which will drive innovation. And I think globally, we've passed the point where people and their leaders believe that doing the same old thing as the past is going to continue in the future. I don't see leading edge research into solar, wind, and other alternatives slowing down any time soon. And the fascinating thing is that there is a lot of backyard, garage tinkering going on right now, and that's where the next product/market breakthroughs will come from.
- technology will continue to hyper-innovate: I've got six generations of Blackberry's that span about six years or less. They've got a slew of new products coming out just this month : they've got a very fast innovation culture. Likewise, iPhone's have become the coolest fashion statement on the planet for the younger demographic. The Internet-enabled thermostat I have in my home and chalet is the first step in a huge wave of pervasive connectivity. I don't see hi-tech innovation and R&D slowing down. Indeed, during the last recession, some of the biggest innovations -- the iPod -- emerged from the minds of those inventing the future. There are a lot more billion-dollar markets still to emerge.
- agility and flexibility will dominate: In the next several years, the manufacturing industry -- globally and locally -- will learn to do what Honda has done: focus on the rapid assembly and reassembly of capabilities, so as to more quickly change models and products to respond to fast paced consumer demand. As they do so, they'll undergo a fundamental transformation in their thinking, structure and capabilities that will ensure their success.
- the global idea machine will continue to influence innovation. Look, the Internet continues to have a profound impact on everything we do. Scientific discovery is speeding up; new discoveries continue to go forward at a furious pace. Eco-building design concepts are debated, shared, and then go global in an instant. From the global mind comes unprecedented innovation, new products, new companies and new industries.
- the next generation takes over. The boomers are a dispirited bunch right now; there's not a lot of passion and enthusiasm with some of them to change the future, particularly given the status of their 401K's. Some in the younger generation are witnessing their first ever generation, and its' probably pretty terrifying. (This is my 4th, so I'm an old hand at this.) Yet, they're a hardy, entrepreneurial bunch, who have grown up with a mindset that inhales change, pursues multiple different opportunities, and collaborates like nothing we've ever seen before. I think they'll shake things up pretty quickly.
- A faster world happens, well, faster. Simply put, faster news cycles means that people get through difficult periods faster, at least in terms of mindset. Re-read my post about the '7 stages of economic grief' and share it around. Think about whether you think people are moving to the acceptance phase quicker. I believe they are, and I think this faster attitude shift, compared to a slower pace of acceptance in previous recessions, means that innovation will drive us out of this faster than we expect.
More information:
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Freeze, innovate or panic? Innovation strategies for RIGHT NOW
Given the rapid pace of global economic developments, organizations are faced with a pretty stark choice.
The CEO of a company that is having me speak to an upcoming leadership meeting stated it this way: their choice going forward is to :
- Freeze: do nothing
- Innovate: respond to rapid market change through innovation, particularly with respect to strategies, struture, capabilities, markets, products, activities
- Panic: make rash decisions on structure, markets, investments.
But for others, panic will truly get you nowhere. And inaction - option 1 -- is not a good choice, because markets, customers behavior, cost inputs and just about everything else will change even faster now, and so you need to change faster.
Option 2 -- continuous innovation -- remains the only thing to focus on. Maybe that's why my phone has been quite busy in the last two weeks. There have already been several confirmed new events in October and November, where I will be coming into a corporate leadership meeting as part of an overall objective of keeping a company ahead in the game.
CEO's and executive staff are working hard to align their current strategies with fast paced economic events. I'm providing grist for the grill, with specific insight on how they might innovate within their particularly industry.
It's interesting that a lot of senior executives are all of a sudden looking for someone to bring their team this type of unique motivational innovation message. Two weeks ago, I helped to clarify for a commercial real estate / building management company leadership group where they could continue to find market opportunity right now, and how they needed to ensure they focus on enhancing existing customer/client relationships as a key strategy for going forward. We defined some strategies that they had not thought of; their team was inspired on focusing on opportunity rather than market upheaval, by thinking differently about what they do.
So what should you be doing from an innovation perspective?
I'll starting putting up quite a few new blog posts starting next week, summarizing the many methods to innovate, particularly through any economic correction or downturn. I'm going to call the series "100 Days of Innovation," and while I won't post each and every day, I do aim to have one hundred concise, succinct posts full of unique innovation insight.
In the meantime, if you need a high level, energetic message to get your leadership in the right frame of mind to deal with high-velocity economic change, call me. The details are on my contact page.
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Being an optimist: a keynote on economic development
So I'm in an airport, on my way to keynote a conference on economic development.
And of course, I saw the latest news on the 'bailout', and the plunge in the Dow.
And so I went to look up the definition of being an optimist, to reassure myself:
- Optimist: 1. One who usually expects a favorable outcome.
That's me! And my keynote is being adjusted on the fly before I get on stage tomorrow.
Here's the fascinating thing that is going on: I'm getting far more calls, and a lot of new business, from CEO's and senior executives who have determined that one of the ways to stay in front of this mess is to keep innovating. In other words, innovation -- adjusting business plans, tackling new markets, focusing on opportunity, seeking what to do next -- is now more important than ever before.
That's probably good news for the many folks who read this blog. There continues to be unparalleled opportunities out there. The short term might be rocky, but the longer term is very, very real.
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Interview - "Is it time to panic?"
The CBC contacted me for my thoughts on the events this week, and in particular, the impact on the Canadian economy.
They invited folks to write in with their questions. As you can see, many people are worried about the safety of their investments.
I take the first question -- about whether there is a panic out there -- and try and put things into perspective.
"I remain quite the optimist about the potential for economic growth worldwide. There are 650 million people worldwide entering middle class through the next decade, and there are a lot of growth markets that emerge with that. Health care, the environment, energy -- all of these industries are immersed in very rapid scientific advancement and fast paced innovation, with new discoveries, and hence new markets.Things are moving at light-speed out there, but remember -- when it comes to trends and the future, there are short term events but long term trends. The former can often by scary as heck; the latter are often calmer.I'm dealing with global manufacturing companies who are moving beyond market commoditization and the impact of Asia, by focusing on more sophisticated product and higher-value skills. I spend a lot of time with a variety of global companies that seek my guidance, and certainly see that despite financial market turmoil, there's a lot of growth out there. Think about it another way -- we've had quite a few "large scale economic hits" which have whacked the stock market over the last ten years. The Asian currency collapse in 1998 caused havoc with global markets.
Then there was the dot.com implosion in 2000. There was a lot of concern with the telecom meltdown a few years later -- remember Nortel and the hit to the pocketbook of many Canadians? Not to forget the huge market downturn which occurred with 9/11.
More information
- Read the transcript
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7 Things to Do Right Now As the Upturn Begins!
I'm often providing detailed strategic guidance to senior executives and leaders on trends and the future, and certainly the economy has become a big part of what I address today. Much of time is spent putting into perspective the fact that we've always had downturns; there's still plenty of growth opportunities out there; innovation is even more critical now to ensure that you're ready to go as the economy starts firing on both cylinders again (which it will.)
What has become evident is that the most pressing issue for leaders today is focus. While volatility rocks global markets, there continue to be fundamental truths: your industry, products, competition, skills requirements, organizational capabilities, and ability to respond to rapid change will define your future success.
Here's my advice on what you should be doing right now to ensure that you are ready for what comes next, based, in part, on a blog entry I wrote last April!
- think growth: It's all too easy right now to lose your enthusiasm and sense of purpose. When economies contract, so too does your motivation. Don't let that happen -- now is the worst time to lose sight of the future! Think opportunity: study my "Where's the Growth" document, and think about what it implies
- check your speed: it's the high velocity economy. Markets, brands, products, industries, competition, and globalization are changing faster than ever before. Make sure you've got a team that can operate at the pace of change. Agility is the key word. Search this blog for insight on that!
- immerse in ideas. The global idea-cycle is collapsing. New ideas are launched, analyzed, and developed to concrete product at a speed that is astonishing. Rapid product change is the new norm: I'm dealing with the CEO of one organization that is involved in a rapidly emerging, multi-billion dollar market that will appear, go super-nova, and disapper, over the course of about 18-24 months, before it is superseded by the next generation of product. That's fast, and that's the new reality.
- check your bench strength. After the cutting begins, value goes out the door. Yet your abililty to access ever more scarce, specialized skills will define your future success. It's your ability to establish a fast, agile, quick-to-assembe collaborative team that will define your ability to grab all the opportunity that is emerging out there.
- assess your threats. where could emerging technologies, fast science, radical business models, new industry dynamics, new regulatory macroeconomic, political or social trends impact your bottom line in a way that you hadn't thought of before? Two years ago, China and quality wasn't an issue.
- invest in experience. Experiential capital -- the depth of capability that you have from exploring, taking risks, trying things out -- is the financial capital. It's a precious resource, and might be in short supply if you aren't working to build it up.
- set the tone. If you let the current economic headlines drive your corporate spirit, you're sunk. You have to keep people focused on the future -- otherwise, your team will smell your fear. Leadership is all about keeping your team focused on opportunity and goals, not on ongoing and regular ("new normal" volatility.
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High velocity globalization - massive markets, major trends
I'm hitting the ground running this week, with an opening keynote presentation for a global legal firm, who are holding their annual shareholders / partners conference in Las Vegas.
- Goldman Sachs has identified that the next growth sector will come from the "Next 11" economies -- those that are going to see a rapid transition and growth. These are Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, South Korea, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, Turkey, and Vietnam
- Almost a billion new consumers will enter the global marketplace in the next decade .... with an income level that allows spending on discretionary goods - McKinsey
- By 2013, consumer spending power in emerging economies could match the spending power of Western Europe - McKinsey
- The ranks of the middle class will swell by 1.8 billion to become 52% of total population, up from 30% today - McKinsey
- 80% of sales are now from abroad
- they just had record sales of $3.59 billion
- 6-7% of sales is committed to R&D
- 30% of current sales comes from new products developed in last 3 years
- sales are up 8.5% year over year
- 59% of it sales are in Asia, and 2/3 of its 59 manufacturing facilities are abroad
In other words, if your clients are aggressively globalizing, as a legal firm you need to do so as well -- and do it fast.
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Transitioning the global economy
There are a zillion fast, zippy cool trends out there. And then, there are the big, sweeping, massive transformative trends that change entire economies.
- Global Economic Trends: An Interview with Jim Carroll
- "Where's the growth: Global innovation strategies for the long term"
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A memo to the CEO: Innovation matters more than ever
Memo
To: CEO's worldwide,
(particularly in the financial sector)
From: Jim Carroll
-------------------------
I know things are extremely busy, particularly given our economic climate, but I think there's a key issue that you need to make sure is on your agenda.
The most important thing that you can do *right now*, as you work to navigate your way through the challenging economic shoals that surround you, is to make sure that you don't kill innovation in its tracks.
In the last few years, you've nurtured and created a core group of people in your organization who have become relentlessly focused on innovation. They've been obsessively focused on process, service and product innovation. They're matching the needs of customers, are taking you in to new markets, and are figuring out what to do in an economy that changes at a furious pace.
In the months and years to come, these executives are going to be some of the most important and critical individuals on your team.
Leaders set the tone. The tone you need to set for your leading innovators is that innovation matters now more than ever.
I know it's a tough sector to be in right now; there's a lot of bloodletting underway, and there's likely more to come as hundreds of billions of dollars of losses are absorbed. Yet you'll likely get through it, and you are going to have to be relentlessly focused on meeting customer needs, open new markets, and continually re-orient your business models to continue to focus on growth.
In January 2008. I was honored to be one of the judges for the annual Monarch Innovation Awards. We examined various innovative service and product offerings from such major financial institutions as Wachovia, SunTrust, USBank, Bank of America, WellsFargo and others. The key goal of the awards, sponsored by Barlow Research, was to "recognize financial institutions that provide the most innovative products to business customers" and to "recognize risk takers in the financial services industry who create/promote innovation within their organizations."
Throughout the financial sector, there are innovation heroes like those who won the Monarch Innovation Awards. These are the folks who are willing to stick their heads up, take a risk, and do something new and dramatic.
It's your innovation heroes who will help you open the future.
You must ensure that they still have the courage to take risks. To open new markets. To do innovative things that will solve customer problems. To realign the business for the future.
Celebrate them. Elevate them. Make their contributions known.
As the CEO, you set the tone for your organization. You have a momentary chance to ensure that you stay focused on the opportunities that come from your innovation heroes.
If you want to chat about this, give me a call. I'm at 905.855.2950. Or just send me an email: innovationmatters@jimcarroll.com
Sincerely,
Jim Carroll
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More information
- Print A memo to the CEO: Innovation Matters More Than Ever
- Marketwatch press release: Barlow Research Monarch Innovation Awards
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Innovating in a flat world - the jewelry industry
I keynoted the 2008 Manufacturing Jewelers and Suppliers of America Expo New York yesterday, on the theme of ""How to Unlock Your Potential in the High Velocity Economy." Just about a week from now, Dubai will hold a similar event. The challenge for the AJMA members is that they now find themselves in a world that has gone massively global and is far more competitive; and as the world has flattened, so too have their challenges. They're competing not only against the City of Gold, but countless other highly innovative jewelry centers.
The focus of my keynote: what to do after the world gets flat! How can they innovate to deal with the unique challenges of today? Most certainly, the challenges go far beyond just globalization: rapidly changing consumer attitudes are also playing a key role. I used some recent insight from research firm Mintel UK, which provided a few fascinating nuggets:
- only 5% of all the customers surveyed buy jewelry frequently - compare that to the trends with consumer electronics spending - a lot of discretionary spending now goes to the latter, and not the former.
- 22% compare prices before they buy
- 15% buy online
- 17% of women are finding jewelry sold in supermarkets an "increasingly attractive" option
These are all the classic signs of commoditization of an industry -- wherein existing competitors find themselves in a never-ending black hole of being forced to compete on price.
How do you innovate your way out of this? The advice I included in my 75-minute talk covered a vast number of issues; here's a few of the things they should focus on:
- faster time to market : fashion happens faster; they need to deal with this. If P-Diddy appears with a new ear-stud and it gets noticed, kids will want it. Agile jewelers align themselves to such instant production, by revamping their process and cost structure.
- innovate upside-down. Adopt new design philosophies: rather than innovating, focus on upside down innovation. Work with their retail partners to restart the design process. Innovative organizations recognize they can't do it all. They seek partners with everything they do, recognizing that there are of lot of really wonderful innovative ideas that transcend their organization and their culture. This allows them to discover new innovative ideas they hadn't thought of before; a process I call upside down innovation.
- revamp manufacturing capabilities: a lot of these folks manufacture to inventory, and with the high and fluctuating cost of gold and other metals, that's an expensive business model to maintain, particularly in the context of increased global competition. Leading edge manufacturers are using CAD/CAM tech to change their design process and are learning to shift their business model as a result.
These were just a few of the issues I covered ; the key is accepting the fast-change that envelopes the industry, and challenging your assumptions and habits to move forward!
More information
- Read the MJSA article Change Your Mind: Staying One Step Ahead
- Read What do you do after the world gets flat? Put a ripple in it!
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Gloom has set in on global markets. Volatility rages. Some organizations have gone into a mode of "aggressive indecision," deferring action while they try to figure out "what comes next." A pretty lousy strategy that is doomed to fail in the longer term.
Future oriented leaders understand the reality of growth. They know that we live in a time in which opportunities for growth abound. They've aligned the mission of the organization so that they are capitalizing on real opportunity, not short term economic challenges.
Growth is everywhere.
It's easy during a time of economic volatility to lose sight of where the global economy is really headed. Yet while stock markets might rock, innovation thrives.
New ideas continue to be explored, markets grow, and industries emerge. A variety of trends indicate that opportunities for growth continue to surround us.
Read this document to get in the right frame of mind for the future.....and think growth. Think opportunity. Innovate for future, don't stagnate with the past.
Download Where's the Growth? Global Innovation Opportunities for the Long Term
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High velocity leadership: how to stay focused on growth
Organizations today are looking for deep insight into the trends that will affect their markets and industries. CEO's are focused on the need for innovation, knowing that a world of high velocity change requires that they respond to opportunity and challenge in an instant. They are looking for guidance on establishing high-performance, innovation oriented teams that are focused on achievement.
I've been doing quite a bit in this area; the other day, I spent time with a global organization, for a full day, with a keynote and workshop focused on the issue of "growth." It's easy -- in a challenged economy -- to lose sight of opportunities for growth. That's what I talk about in the recent interview by Credit Suisse.
With this particular client -- and many others -- I went beyond a keynote, and participated for the balance of the day through a series of workshops. This new document outlines what I do: I'm often called upon to deliver unique, half day or full day executive retreat, leadership oriented programs.
More information:
- Read High Velocity Leadership
- Read my Credit Suisse interview for my thoughts on "growth"
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Leading in turbulent times: how to innovate during the recession!
Even as news and financial pundits endlessly debate the question, let's face reality: the US economy is in a recession.
Given this reality, the key question going forward is: what do you do now to ensure that you remain innovative, competitive, and forward-oriented?
Innovate for the upturn! That's the key message I focused on with my clients in 2002-3, and the same message holds true today. And that was the focus of a keynote last week when I spoke to one of the largest US commercial / industrial real estate brokerage groups. There were several bits of insight I shared with them:
Put sub-prime into perspective
One of my first comments for this audience of senior executives? We need to think about the sub-prime mess in the context of a longer term view. In the last ten years, we've been through many economic challenges:
- the 1998 Asian currency collapse
- the 2000 dot.com meltdown
- the 2001 global telecom restructuring
- from 2001 to 2003, the impact of 9-11 and economic uncertainty
- 2007 to 2008, the march to $100 oil
- and now sub-prime....
Keep focused on the longer term view
I tend to be an optimist: that's because I think in a longer term perspective. Think about it: over the next 10 years, there are several certainties:
- scientific discovery will continue to advance at an ever increasing pace, opening new markets, evolving existing markets, and establishing countless new opportunities
- global collaborative knowledge communities will continue to lead to faster innovation in every industry and market
- new products, methodologies, skills, ideas, organizational structures will continue to evolve at a fast pace; agile organizations will continue to come out on top
- the transition of economies in the Mid-East and Asia will continue despite regional economic challenges
- rapidly aging economies in North America and Europe will drive rapid spending, innovation and knowledge discovery in the world of health care
- global energy conciousness will continue to lead to ever more rapid evolution of "green" solutions
- 1/2 of the global population is under the age of 25. They're change aggressive, and will continue to lead to the rapid adoption of new ideas.
- growth in markets is a simple reality: in agriculture, global food production still has to double in the next 25 years to keep up with population trends. Sub-prime has no impact on this reality.
Don't let aggressive indecision take over your thinking
To innovate in the upturn, don't let a short-term vs long-term trend disconnect take over your strategic thinking. Already, I can see the signs of some companies heading into an innovation rut, their staff and executives encumbered by a dangerous state of complacency, while other companies innovate, change, and adapt to the "new normal" that is now our reality.
In the last recession, "aggressive indecision" became a driving cultural and leadership trait. Organizations that fell into this funk fell behind. Innovative companies didn't permit that to happen then, and you shouldn't let this happen now.
More information:
- Read Global Economic Trends: An Interview with Jim Carroll The reality of future trends: grab the What Comes Next trends overview
- Read my 2003 article about "aggressive indecision"
- Read my Credit Suisse interview for my thoughts on "growth"
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Credit Suisse Bulletin: Success Comes to Those Who Evolve
Credit Suisse, headquartered in Zurich, is global financial powerhouse operating in 50 countries; 48,000+ employees, assets of $75 billion US, and net assets under management of $1.345 trillion.
They've just released their 2008 Bulletin magazine, a publication provided to key investment banking, private banking and asset management clients worldwide.
They've include a fairly lengthy Q&A with me, in an article titled Success Comes to Those Who Evolve, in which they wanted wide-ranging views on the word "growth." It came out well: my key message has always been that we must always link the concept of innovation to rapidly emerging trends in order to constantly change what we do -- often simply to keep up, or attain competitive advantage.
Here's the key point: So what's the recipe to kick-start innovative thinking? I think it's about having your entire organization understand everybody is responsible for constantly figuring out how they need to change to keep up with the rapidly changing world. They need leadership that supports and encourages them to be open and share ideas, and that leadership needs to hammer home that message on a regular basis."
More information
- Read: Success Comes to Those Who Evolve
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Which way forward? An economic interview with Jim Carroll
Jim Carroll is frequently approached by global news organizations to comment on economic issues. He was recently interviewed by the CBC (Canadian Broadcasting Corporation) for his perspective on how the Canadian economy will be impacted by recent global events. This document summarizes key components of the interview.
The interview includes a variety of topics, including this one: How can an economic region discover opportunity? From Jim's perspective, it's through skills transformation. He recently keynoted a community economic development summit in an auto-industry dependent city. He comments about the challenges that exist in the manufacturing sector: and how some regions are turning challenge into opportunity.
You'll also find a news report that ran in newspapers across Canada after this economic development conference; you'll find some unique views on the types of careers that are emerging in the future.
More information
- Read: Which Way Forward: An Economic Interview with Jim Carroll
- Read the news cover: "Knowledge Explosion Key to the Future"
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Innovating locally in a global economy
I spent the day yesterday with management executives and store owners of DoItBest, one of the largest US hardware retailers. It's a fascinating organization, because in the midst of the current economic challenges in the US, it's managed to grow its profit at the same time that it saw a dramatic revenue decline.
As with all the keynotes that I do, I undertook an extensive amount of research into the company and industry before I took to the stage; this is combined with the fact that I have keynoted dozens of retail oriented conferences through the years.
What I found was a really cool, and extremely innovative organization. Their online Web site has seen a sales increase of 60%; they've included an option where shoppers can have orders sent to their local DoItBest store (of which there are 4,000+). The site is price competitive with Target and Amazon. They are doing a lot in terms of supply-chain, online store portals and rebates. They've rolled out three different store designs, and are discovering new micro-markets. All this, while they've seen sales fall to $2.81 billion from $3 billion from the year before -- and yet, they also achieved record profitability.
In my mind, there are a number of innovative strategies that the organization has pursued that any organization can learn from:
- rapidly transition challenged product lines: lumber saw price declines of 25%, and panel prices dropped 60% according to an article in Home Channel News. Do It Best stores responded by focusing on all kinds of other lines in hardware and new market opportunities such as home-decord
- be relentless on customer service: a search of news articles shows any number of articles in which customers rave about the knowledge that a staff member in a Do It Best store has when it comes to hardware, tools, home renovation and just about everything else. They've maintained a relentless focus on customer service, even as the big-box chains have lost site of its importance. If you need a power tool: these folks know power tools.
- recognize that micro-branding works: the new store format design has three components: one for those fully within the DoItBest brand, one that is sort of halfway, and one for those stores that want to maintain a distinct, local, "general store" type of image. The fact is, in this era of homogenized big-box brands, some folks like the feeling they get from a small, local hardware store brand. "Do It Best owners understand the micro-economy" -- that's what Jeff Prupis, of Pomona Paint & Hardware, a Do It Best store in Pomona, NY, stated in another Home Channel News article.
- when markets commoditize, specialize: at their trade show yesterday, they were featuring a "Christmas in January" theme; with various vendors showing the unique Christmas offerings they might be thinking about. Everywhere you look, you can see some of their stores learning about and experimenting with new premium markets and service opportunities.
- make life easy for customers: We're time compressed. We're in a hurry. We need solutions. We want "fast." That's why the comment from Joe Talor, CEO, Taylor's Do It Center, Virginia Beach, is so appropriate. "We're like the 7-11 of the hardware industry. You can get in, get out, and get back home to enjoy your weekend."
All in all, a tremendous amount of fun, and a wonderful organization to spend some time with!
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At the Swiss Innovation Forum in Zurich, I took a look at the real impact of globalization -- the new consumer, market commoditization, rapid emergence of new business models, shortened product lifecycles.....
The bottom line? "We need to shake ourselves out of any complacency that we can continue doing tomorrow what we did today."
That's why innovation is critical : organizations today are in a situation in which everything around them is fluid, constantly changing and evolving. Permanence has been torn asunder.
It is only by focusing on continual, rapid change that an organization can adapt to today's new global realities.
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