Future trend - The Future of Governance
I was in Colorado Springs yesterday, as the opening keynote of the Leadership Institute for Directors for FCCServices -- they're the business services arm of the US federal Farm Credit System.
In attendance were members of the Boards of Directors for a wide variety of state and community farm credit co-ops; these folks are the backbone of the US farm lending infrastructure. The Directors are local farmers, community leaders and business executives, and hence, need to be aware of the trends impacting the local and global agricultural industries, so that they can plan accordingly, assess risk, and make sound business decisions with respect to their co-ops.
My keynote took a look at "what comes next in the agricultural sector" - it's one of many talks I do within the industry. And agriculture is certainly subject to high velocity change: there's rapid evolution in science (bio-crops); new markets (bio-fuel) ; rapidly changing skills; new direct to consumer market opportunities; globalization (current food production must double in the next 30 years to keep up with global population growth.) All of which could spell opportunity if approached correctly -- or turmoil and challenge if ignored.
The intent of the talk -- and the overall theme of the leadership conference -- was to ensure that these folks have the insight to direct their organizations into the future. That's an important and critical role for Boards; and FCC Services is an example of an organization that has made sure that the "future" is closely linked to the issue of "governance."
I think there are too many organizations that don't do this. Sadly, with all the current focus on "compliance," I've come to believe that there is a critical lack of future planning on many other corporate boards around the world. The result is that potential risks are often ignored; then things go wrong; then the company gets sued for significant sums of money. Is this Board negligence? That's an interesting question, isn't it!
Here's an example: years ago, I wrote an article indicating that one of the critical CEO/Board level issues that must be addressed had to do with network security; certainly, everyone knows that organizations should properly secure their information assets. Yet in the article, I suggested that I believe that many Boards aren't dealing with the issue, and that it was an area ripe for future exposure, noting that:
"If I were a tort lawyer, I'd be licking my lips in anticipation of the opportunities to come in the next few years."
Boards and CEO's should ensure -- as they are required to do with financial controls -- that the information assets of the organization are properly locked down. They must understand obvious future trends, and ensure that management has planned accordingly. I strongly believe this to be the next wave in Board responsibility.
Do many Boards of Directors ensure that the organization is properly preparing for the rapidity of trends? Not many. Witness the shenanigans with the TJX Group, which had its corporate network hacked and millions of credit card numbers stolen. (The company runs HomeGoods, Marshalls, A.J. Wright, Bob's Stores and The Maxx stores; in Canada the chain consists of Winners and HomeSense.) Now comes news that a group of banks want to sue the company with respect to the issue.
I can only imagine the questions that the Board of TJX is now asking!
Currently, much of the focus of board governance has to do with "compliance" -- how well are boards, and the companies they are responsible for, dealing with the new realities of the post-Enron era.
I believe that within the next decade, we will see Board responsbility quickly evolve into a new and much more complex era than simply making sure that "i's are dotted and the t's are crossed.' All we need are a few savvy lawyers to launch a few negligence suits against a few public companies, alleging that a Board failed to develop a plan for and respond to obvious future trends.
It's a trend worth watching.
More information
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There are two types of people in the world -- those who view the future with fear, worry and concern -- and the rest of the people who look at the future as an opportunity.
The latter group are the innovators; the former group will do everything they can do dismiss the idea of doing anything differently. (They use the "innovation killer phrases" which I often use on stage.....)
I just grabbed a quick video clip from a talk I did for the Cedar Rapids, Iowa Chamber of Commerce earlier this fall (which drew a standing room only crowd of 800 people), in which I'm talking about the attitudes of farmers towards the future. I spent a bit of time talking about the 10 Big Trends for Agriculture, and put into perspective that we really need to focus on the opportunity of the upside.
It might be worth a watch, because it really puts these two camps into perspective. Take a look at it here
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Farmers, producers, ranchers and innovation...
It's agriculture week! At least, it seems that way -- on Friday, I keynoted the Alberta Beef Industry Conference; for three days this week, I'm speaking to a select group of growers who are customers of Syngenta, one of the world's leading agribusinesses; on Friday, I keynote the Ontarion Farm Equipment Association, and two weeks hence, an association of soybean farmers!
I'm focusing on my trends for agriculture. What is fascinating with this group of people is that they tend to be some of the most innovative individuals on the planet. They've been regularly buffetted by the ups and downs of the agricultural cycle, the vagaries of weather, the unrelability of commodity markets, and a flood of new science, methodologies, treatments and seed varieties.
The typical city-dweller has an image of someone who complains and runs to the government for subsidies; the reality is that the typical farmer is an astute business person with a fine ear for innovation, someone who thrives by the exhiliaration and challenge of an extremely complex business; someone who it optimistic about the future and the potential profitability of their industry. The groups I have been dealing with relish learning about the new science surrounding the industry, and are eager to learn what needs to be done to continue going forward with a focus on opportunity.
Key fact: global food consumption is going to double in the next 20 years due to population growth. There is little new arable land coming on stream. This means existing producers will play a key role. Good thing, since their attitudes are certainly there!
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I've got a number of keynotes coming up in the New Year focused on the agricultural sector, and have done quite a few in the past.
I'm preparing for a series of events at the end of February, and now is a good time as ever to put up a list of what I see happening.
- Massive growth in food demand: The UK Food and Agriculture Association estimates that the world population will increase 47%, to 8.9 billion, by 2050. That's a potentially huge food marketplace. That fact, more than anything, spells the reality that the agricultural industry is full of potential opportunity!
- A continuing rampup in efficiency: Simple fact: global agriculture must double in the next 30 years to sustain this type of population growth. Add this reality check: there is little new arable land in the world. The result is that existing producers will have to continue to focus on smarter, better, more efficient growing in order to meeting demand.
- Hyper-science: One of the realities of the infinite idea loop in which we now find ourselves is this: while there are 19 million known chemical substances today, the number is constantly doubling every 13 years… with some 80 million by 2025, and 5 billion by 2100. Science is evolving at a furious pace, and with science at the root of agriculture, we will continue to see constant, relentless new methods of improving crop and livestock yield.
- Innovation defines success: Growers that focus on innovation as a core value will find success; their innovation will focus on the triple-feature need for growth, efficiency and ingestion of new science. It will be by adopting new methodologies, products, partnerships and ideas that they will learn to thrive.
- Retail and packaging innovation drive agricultural decisions: Do this: stare at a banana. Did you know that Chiquita banana has come up with a special membrane that doubles the shelf-life of the product, doing this regulating the flow of gases through the packaging? Take a look at Naturepops: each lollipop is wrapped in fully bio-degradable film made from plant matter, and the bags they come in are made from recycled paper, water-based ink and poly lactic acid made from cornstarch. There's a huge amount of innovation happening with packaging companies and on the store shelf, and all of these trends have a big impact on agriculture.
- Intelligent packaging moves front and center: Innovation with packaging will take an even bigger leap in years to come, and will involve hyperconnectivity, a trend that will be driven by food safety, tracability, country of origin and nutrition labelling needs. Our lives are soon to be transformed by packaging that can "connect" to the global data grid that surrounds us; and its' role will have been transformed from being that of a "container of product" to an intelligent technology that will help us with use of the product, or which will help us address safety and tracability issues.
- The energy opportunity: Agriculture is set to play a huge role as we wean ourselves away from our dependence on oil and natural gas. The US Department of Energy plans to see alternative fuels provide 5% of the nations energy by 2020, up from 1% today. And it is expected that there will be $1.2 billion in new income for farmers and rural landowners by getting involved with new energy sources such as windpower. Europe plans to have a market that involves at least 20% usage of bio-fuels by 2020, and Feed & Grain estimates that liquid fuels from agricultural feed could replace 25% to 30% of US petroleum imports by that time.
- Convenience and health take center stage: We will continue to see rapid change in consumer taste and expectations as people comes to place more emphasis or doing their best with the little time that they have. For example, it is expected that fresh-cut snacks grew from an $8.8 billion market in 2003 to $10.5 billion by 2004, according to the International Fresh-Cut Produce Association, as part of a trend in which produce and fruit continue to compete with traditional snacks. Expect such unique trends to growth both in terms of number and rapidity.
- Direct consumer-producer relationships blossom: As this technology evolves and as people become more concerned about the safety of what they eat, a natural result is a frenetic rate of growth in direct relationships between growers and consumers. Check out SouthDakotaCertifiedBeef -- that type of thing defines the future of this trend!
- Generational transformation: perhaps the biggest trend is that we are about to witness a sea-change in the rate by which new ideas in the world of agriculture are accepted, as a new generation of technology-weaned, innovative younger people take over the family farm.
- Partnership defines success: If there is one trend I emphasize in every industry I'm involved with, it is that no one individual or organization can know everything there is to know. As I indicated in my I found the future in manure article, this trend is also becoming prevalent in agriculture. We will continue to see an increasing number of partnerships between growers and advisers, suppliers, buyers, retailers and just about everyone else, so that they learn to deal with the massive complexities that emerge from rapid change and innovation.
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Technology key to future of ag
11 November 2005
The Californian, Salinas
Industry women hear message at peninsula conference
The Salinas Californian
MONTEREY - The future of American agriculture will hinge on changes in technology and marketing, agricultural officials and an author told an audience of women agricultural leaders Thursday.
Agricultural growth was the topic as about 300 people attended a dinner on the first day of the four-day American Agri-Women Conference at the Monterey Plaza Hotel and Spa.
Through workshops and field visits, the goal of the conference is to explore how pervasive change is impacting the U.S. agribusiness industry.
The ag industry must continue to listen to its customers if it wants to keep up with a fast-paced market, author Jim Carroll told the audience at Thursday's dinner.
"Innovation has swept the food sector to where the package is now the brand," Carroll said.
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Seafood, farms and innovation!
Quick: what's the average number of fridges per 100 people in China today?
If you guessed 82, you're right.
And if you knew that there were but 29 per 100 in 1990, then you have found the secret to innovation. After all, if you think about it, that's a massive increase in the potential market for food exports......
Innovative people focus on opportunity, not threat.
When confronted with the issue of globalization, most people sit back and stress out about "how bad things are going to be."
Innovators sit back and look at globalization and think, "man, what an opportunity!"
It's all in how you approach the future. Last Thursday, I gave the dinner keynote in Monterey, California for the American Agriwomen Association, and chatted with the folks about the key trends impacting agriculture. And that's the type of message I brought -- don't focus on threat -- think of opportunity! There's a lot of fridges to be filled!
This week, I'll be keynoting the National Seafood Sector Council with a similar message, and will take a look at global packaging, food and consumer market trends. Then I'll be doing an awards dinner in Wolfville, Nova Scotia for a group of community innovators. Both talks will carry a similar theme -- if you look at the future as nothing more than a threat to worry about, rather than an opportunity to be grabbed -- then you are looking in the wrong place!
Think fridges!
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I found the future in manure!!
On Monday, I'll be the luncheon keynote luncheon speaker at ICE - The Tech Conference in Edmonton.
My topic? "I Found the Future in Manure: How to Capitalize on the Rapid Evolution of Science"
Here's the description for my talk:
"In the last decade, the world has seen the emergence of a globally connected scientific mind. The impact is dramatic -- while there are 19 million known chemical substances today, it is estimated that by 2025 there will be some 300 million -- and 5 billion by 2100. As Apple learned with the iPod, the discovery of a single new chemical substance can lead to the emergence of a billion dollar market, literally overnight. Since science is at the heart of every industry -- and with such rates of discovery, innovation abounds. Join leading international futurist, trends and innovation expert Jim Carroll as he explores the impact of hyper-science, and what it means in terms of bio-tech, nanotech and everything-tech. What does this have to do with manure? Join Jim and find out!
If you search my Web site a bit, you'll find the article that brought this whole topic up.
Oh, and for the fun of it, I'm going to explain the relationship between manure, a '57 Chevy, and transportation in the year 2016.
Seriously.
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"Believe it or not, manure can teach us a great deal about the future of business." That's what I learned about the future from manure, and it's covered this week in my column in Profit. [ article ] (opens in a new window)
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