And of course, I saw the latest news on the 'bailout', and the plunge in the Dow.

And so I went to look up the definition of being an optimist, to reassure myself:

• Optimist: 1. One who usually expects a favorable outcome.

That's me! And my keynote is being adjusted on the fly before I get on stage tomorrow.

Here's the fascinating thing that is going on: I'm getting far more calls, and a lot of new business, from CEO's and senior executives who have determined that one of the ways to stay in front of this mess is to keep innovating. In other words, innovation -- adjusting business plans, tackling new markets, focusing on opportunity, seeking what to do next -- is now more important than ever before.

That's probably good news for the many folks who read this blog. There continues to be unparalleled opportunities out there. The short term might be rocky, but the longer term is very, very real.]]> http://www.jimcarroll.com/blog/2008/09/being-an-optimist-a-keynote-on.html http://www.jimcarroll.com/blog/2008/09/being-an-optimist-a-keynote-on.html Global economy Mon, 29 Sep 2008 16:55:34 -0500 I'm in Manhattan tomorrow, speaking at an event for food, advertising and packaging companies on behalf of Readers Digest Food & Entertaining Division.

I'll be offering a late morning wrap up of observations about the high-velocity change that continues to envelop the sector, particularly the following trends. Dig through the blog -- particularly, the retail or consumer product categories -- and you'll find a little bit more insight about each of them.

• the new consumer is faster -- and innovation isn't just about new product design -- it's about reaching and interacting with the consumer in new and different ways
• the new consumer is connected -- and interactivity is the new brand foundation
• the new consumer is no longer nuclear -- and hyper-nicheing is the new brand reality
• the new consumer is influenced differently -- and social-networks are the new brand influencers
• the new consumer is shifting their focus faster -- and faster paced preference change is the new reality
• the new product is rapidly re-defined -- and time to market and corporate agility are the new corporate capabilities
• the new product is up-side down as innovation changes -- and partnership is the key method to speed things up

Here's one of the statistics in my deck -- 71% of consumers are choosing to prepare meals at home rather than eating out; restaurant trips have declined from 1.5 times a week in 2006 to 1.2 times today.

These statistics, from the Food Marketing 2008 US Grocery Shopper Trends report, came out before the economic challenges of mid-September and the problems on Wall Street.

One of my key messages is that we live in a time when "volatility is the new normal" -- a mantra I've been using for years -- and food companies must learn to innovate faster to capitalize on such fast moving trends.

We'll probably see this particular trend pick up steam -- and there's opportunity for new advertising messages, branding campaigns, not to mention new product offerings!

Faster is the new fast!

]]> http://www.jimcarroll.com/blog/2008/09/high-velocity-change-in-the-fo.html http://www.jimcarroll.com/blog/2008/09/high-velocity-change-in-the-fo.html Industry - Consumer goods Industry - Retail Keynotes Tue, 23 Sep 2008 15:13:33 -0500

The CBC contacted me for my thoughts on the events this week, and in particular, the impact on the Canadian economy.

They invited folks to write in with their questions. As you can see, many people are worried about the safety of their investments.

I take the first question -- about whether there is a panic out there -- and try and put things into perspective.

"I remain quite the optimist about the potential for economic growth worldwide. There are 650 million people worldwide entering middle class through the next decade, and there are a lot of growth markets that emerge with that. Health care, the environment, energy -- all of these industries are immersed in very rapid scientific advancement and fast paced innovation, with new discoveries, and hence new markets.

I'm dealing with global manufacturing companies who are moving beyond market commoditization and the impact of Asia, by focusing on more sophisticated product and higher-value skills. I spend a lot of time with a variety of global companies that seek my guidance, and certainly see that despite financial market turmoil, there's a lot of growth out there. Think about it another way -- we've had quite a few "large scale economic hits" which have whacked the stock market over the last ten years. The Asian currency collapse in 1998 caused havoc with global markets.

Then there was the dot.com implosion in 2000. There was a lot of concern with the telecom meltdown a few years later -- remember Nortel and the hit to the pocketbook of many Canadians? Not to forget the huge market downturn which occurred with 9/11.

More information

• Read the transcript

• American banks face financial meltdown if their reforms fail.
• Mortage Meltdown!
• Bloody and Bowed --- Money Managers Remain Badly Shaken by the Meltdown.
• Market Cap Meltdown --- Billions in Blue Chip Stock Values Have Been Blown Away.
• Congress caught in a bind over bank crisis.
• Crisis Looming As Realty Slump Becomes Global

• Banks face financial meltdown if their reforms fail, The Times, December 1990
• Mortgage Meltdown, Toronto Star, December 1989
• Bloody and Bowed --- Money Managers Remain Badly Shaken by the Meltdown, Barron's - December 1987
• Market Cap Meltdown --- Billions in Blue Chip Stock Values Have Been Blown Away, Barron's, October 1987
• Congress caught in bind over bank crisis, Independent, November 1990
• Crisis Looming as Realty Slump Becomes Global, American Banker, October 1990

The events as they are unfold are tragic, and there are people losing their jobs. We've yet to see where it will all go.

On the other hand, it needs to be put into the context of previous "meltdowns". We've been here before, folks. And at the end of the day, there will still be banks, insurance companies, investment organizations, and a financial system.

I wrote about this a few months ago, and put together a "Memo to the CEO" that examined the issue of innovation. Maybe it's a good time to resurrect for those organizations that are concentrating on getting through this mess and moving on to the next stage. As we come out of it, it will be those focused on innovating within the new marketplace who will come out on top.

More information

• Read the Memo to the CEO

As a result, I now have more review copies available for media, and bloggers who focus on innovation, creativity, and fast market change.

If you would like a review copy, please contact me, and let me know who you write for, point me to a few of your columns or blog posts, and I'd be pleased to drop a complimentary copy of the book in the mail to you.

Note the Globe & Mail, in a review: "In the opening section of Ready, Set, Done (Oblio Press, 181 pages, $24.95), Toronto-based futurist Jim Carroll highlights some examples of the high-velocity change that is forcing companies to innovate faster than ever, and in the remainder of the book, he offers advice on the pitfalls to avoid and the proper steps to be taken. It's a high-level, strategic look, touching on concepts such as just-in-time knowledge, an up-to-date version of continuous learning we need to understand; 21st century capital; and why Band-Aid innovation doesn't work. It's broad in what it covers and briskly written, with some fascinating anecdotes from his own experiences as a consultant or odd things he has dug out about industries (did you know there's a new cadre of workers called manure managers?)

It's a great books, and I've had lots of comments from readers who have found that it has provided them some straightforward, to the point guidance on a huge variety of innovation concepts.

The other great news is that because of the size of the print run and economies of scale, we will shortly be able to offer the book for sale through this site at a lower cost of $14.95 plus shipping.

• Contact Jim Carroll for a review copy of Ready, Set, Done: How to Innovate When Faster is the New Fast

Need more on change? Read my 10 Great Words -- get inspired!

Want to share the video? Do it now -- it's on YouTube.

Can change happen? It can -- but it takes a lot of work! I spend my time on stage with audiences of 2,000 people -- or with CEO meetings -- focusing on how to get things to change. Even so, this video clip is inspiring -- when confronted with change -- JUST DEAL WITH IT!

Here's the story about the video. Outside my home office, I've got what my family has come to call the "squirrel highway." All day long, they scurry back and forth along the top of the fence, busy collecting and hiding food.

A few years ago, my sons and I wondered what would happen if we put up some highway signs for them to obey.

We set up a video camera -- taped for six hours running -- and edited out the best bits. It's a project we're still working on.

This clip was the funniest one -- and seems to tell a bit of a story as to the right way to deal with change. I spend a huge amount of my time in keynotes and workshops helping organizations adapt to the rapid rates of change that surround us. And it's certainly clear that lots of people just aren't good with change. This little fellow is!

]]> http://www.jimcarroll.com/blog/2008/09/change-what-happens-when-chang.html http://www.jimcarroll.com/blog/2008/09/change-what-happens-when-chang.html Change Thu, 11 Sep 2008 20:26:39 -0500 I'm often providing detailed strategic guidance to senior executives and leaders on trends and the future, and certainly the economy has become a big part of what I address today. Much of time is spent putting into perspective the fact that we've always had downturns; there's still plenty of growth opportunities out there; innovation is even more critical now to ensure that you're ready to go as the economy starts firing on both cylinders again (which it will.)

What has become evident is that the most pressing issue for leaders today is focus. While volatility rocks global markets, there continue to be fundamental truths: your industry, products, competition, skills requirements, organizational capabilities, and ability to respond to rapid change will define your future success.

Here's my advice on what you should be doing right now to ensure that you are ready for what comes next, based, in part, on a blog entry I wrote last April!

• think growth: It's all too easy right now to lose your enthusiasm and sense of purpose. When economies contract, so too does your motivation. Don't let that happen -- now is the worst time to lose sight of the future! Think opportunity: study my "Where's the Growth" document, and think about what it implies
• check your speed: it's the high velocity economy. Markets, brands, products, industries, competition, and globalization are changing faster than ever before. Make sure you've got a team that can operate at the pace of change. Agility is the key word. Search this blog for insight on that!
• immerse in ideas. The global idea-cycle is collapsing. New ideas are launched, analyzed, and developed to concrete product at a speed that is astonishing. Rapid product change is the new norm: I'm dealing with the CEO of one organization that is involved in a rapidly emerging, multi-billion dollar market that will appear, go super-nova, and disapper, over the course of about 18-24 months, before it is superseded by the next generation of product. That's fast, and that's the new reality.
• check your bench strength. After the cutting begins, value goes out the door. Yet your abililty to access ever more scarce, specialized skills will define your future success. It's your ability to establish a fast, agile, quick-to-assembe collaborative team that will define your ability to grab all the opportunity that is emerging out there.
• assess your threats. where could emerging technologies, fast science, radical business models, new industry dynamics, new regulatory macroeconomic, political or social trends impact your bottom line in a way that you hadn't thought of before? Two years ago, China and quality wasn't an issue.
• invest in experience. Experiential capital -- the depth of capability that you have from exploring, taking risks, trying things out -- is the financial capital. It's a precious resource, and might be in short supply if you aren't working to build it up.
• set the tone. If you let the current economic headlines drive your corporate spirit, you're sunk. You have to keep people focused on the future -- otherwise, your team will smell your fear. Leadership is all about keeping your team focused on opportunity and goals, not on ongoing and regular ("new normal" volatility.

Alberta, located in Canada, has an extremely hot economy -- globally, it stands as the home of the 2nd largest provable oil reserves in the world, just after Saudi Arabia. Most of this is tied up in the 'tar sands,' which costs quite a bit more than traditional oil reserves to bring to market. Hence,there is a flood of infrastructure investment and other spending going on.

Needless to say, even thought it's a hot economy, the economic 'correction' (and certainly volatility in the price of oil), as well as other issues, is providing for a bit of a challenge in the tourism sector.

What am I doing at the conference? Notes the brochure: " Jim will speak to the fact that travel product innovations occur today at such a pace that simply keeping up can be a challenge. A furious pace of technological innovation continues unabated, with the rapid emergence of new technologies that change the way the travel consumer plans theirtravels. The Web continues to make massive inroads into tourism planning and business model change. It's a fast paced world -- and that's whyleading edge organizations are focused on staying ahead of the trends that are impacting the high-velocity economy of today. Join international futurist, trends and innovation expert Jim Carroll as he puts into perspective how the world of tourism is changing -- and how organizations are innovating in order to keep up with it!"

What I am talking about? Quite a few trends:

• the new tourist is faster: 1/3 of all leisure travel is now last minute, and the average time for planning a trip is down to 15 days
• the new tourist is connected: 86% of all North American's now travel with a cell phone. They have expectations of finding data-heavy local tourism portals when they walk off a cruise ship looking for something to do.
• the new tourist is influenced differently: 79% of travelers trust reviews by other tourists over advertisements. Social network tourism sites and stalwarts like TripAdvisor continue to have the biggest impact on tourism decisions.
• the new tourism family is no longer nuclear: A grab bag of observations ... only 1 in 4 of the population live in heterosexual, two-parent families .... .one in three people now live alone ......urban Americans remain single for more than half of their adult lives, a radical shift...
• the new tourism product is faster to market: WhereI'veBeen started as a Facebook application that allowed people to post where they've travelled to. It exploded to 2 million users in a matter of weeks.
• the new tourism product is being rapidly redefined: Online tourist mashups that allow people to combine online maps with travel schedules, destination information, and social networks are redefining the concept of trip planning.
• the new tourism marketing is viral: Budget Rent A Car, Southwest Airlines and Sheraton Hotels are examples of 3 companies that are using blogs and Internet video to establish leading edge marketing campaigns.
• the new tourist is, well, different a grab bag of trends: we're seeing a lot more shorter term "pressure relievers," themed holidays, adventure, health or well-being vacations, "authenticity" as a new trend, and the "unplugged" vacation. Not to mention an "old" trend from 2007 which involves "debaucherism" as the new travel trend.

Bottom line -- innovate! ]]> http://www.jimcarroll.com/blog/2008/09/reaching-the-new-travel-consum.html http://www.jimcarroll.com/blog/2008/09/reaching-the-new-travel-consum.html Keynotes Trends Wed, 10 Sep 2008 15:43:48 -0500 We're witnessing hyper-innovation with packaging, design, in-store promotion, new product introductions, rapid change with branding, and perhaps most important, a massive and permanent shift of advertising and influence dollars from traditional media to the online world.

These are all themes that I will be exploring later in the month, when I provide my insight for the Food & Entertaining Division of Readers Digest, the group behind AllRecipes.com, and the magazine Every Day with Rachel Ray, among other properties, at an invitation only event in New York City.

Also sharing their insight during the Symposium will be Phil Lempert, who specializes in providing deep insight into supermarket trends, and Katie-Lee Joel, Top Chef judge and author of the book The Comfort Table.

A few years ago, I dug out the statistic that the typical shopper is so attention challenged that they are scanning some twelve feet of shelf space per second. That was a few years ago : today, their decisions on what to buy and what to eat are influenced by social networks, mobile messages, cutting-edge in-store display technology, and many other trends.

Food companies and packaging companies need to understand the rapidity and depth of the trends that are occurring -- and that's why Readers Digest chose to bring my "high-velocity change" message to the table.

It should be a fun day!

• view the invite for Setting thee Table : Consumer Trends, insights and opportunities for food and packaged goods marketers

My topic was Innovating for Our Future Health: The Strategic Role of Financial Leadership in our Hospitals. The subtext: "A look at the new strategic role that financial professionals must play as health care comes to dominate overall GDP spending. Innovation is no longer just a fashionable phrase -- it's the new leadership focus for executives in the health care sector".

A few of the key themes that we explored:

• rapid scientific advance is resulting in a flood of new treatments, diagnostic tools, methodologies, pharmaceuticals, and bio-materials. There is an increased need for careful, diligent cost benefit analysis to stay at the leading, but practical, edge
• simple demographics suggest that the elusive EHR (electronic health record), which has not yet been quite successful, will emerge as Gen-Connnect comes to increasingly dominate the medical workforce
• business model change is coming -- and fast -- as retail environments come to dominate the medical space. A recent Healthcare Financial Management magazine article, in a reader survey, of the "most important people in healthcare", ranked Steve Case first, and Eric Schmidt, CEO of Google, second. Steve is involved in several initiatives which involve the opening of retail "health care stores". The survey shows that transformative, IT driven change will continue to have profound impacts in the health care sector.
• patient empowerment is leading to faster demand for cutting edge medical services, which increases the complexity of the careful balancing game underway in most hospitals
• there continues to be huge opportunity with tech in the sector; it's estimated that one medication mistake can cost a hospital upwards of $2,000 -- and Boston's Brigham and Women's Hospital reduced error rates by 55% over an eight month period using computerized order entry

• read Future Medicine: Prescriptions for 21st Century Health Care

Twenty years from now, most people will look back and realize that right about now, we had three huge, transformative trends underway: device connectivity, geo-connectivity, and bio-connectivity

Essentially, everything around is about to become linked in -- every device that surrounds your life. My home thermostat is linked to the Internet, and that has changed the scope of how I interact with energy.

Layered on top of device connectivity is spatial intelligence for each device -- vis-a-vis Google Maps types of applications. Think about new forms of energy management built upon sophisticated geographic mapping applications.

Add to this the fact that this type of technology will migrate to devices that will help us better manage complex health circumstances.

I've been writing and speaking about the idea of bio-connectivity and the concept of "hyper-connectivity" for over a decade (before Nortel lamely built a lame marketing campaign around the latter phrase a year ago.) It remains one of the most significant trends that will yet unfold in the health care sector. Our concept of health care delivery will be forever transformed.

Simply put, link the scope of the looming health care crisis to the momentum that will come from Silicon Valley for medical device connectivity, and there are some pretty powerful things happening. Think about what happens as spatial device connectivity comes to everyday things around you -- such as a baseball bat! Read more below. There's a lot going on in this space, and you'd do well to understand it.

Opportunity through the next decade is going to be found by those who will adjust and adapt buisness models, attitudues, structures, methodologies and capabilities to this new reality.

More information:

• HealthCare Innovation & Technology Conference
• Read about what happens When Thermostats get connected
• Read the article about bio-connectivity, The Doctor is in around the clock
• Read the article Minds of their own
• Read "Bioconnectivity and the rapid emergence of new markets"
• Read the article Command and Control - Opportunity Awaits Companies that Master Hyperconnectivity

• Goldman Sachs has identified that the next growth sector will come from the "Next 11" economies -- those that are going to see a rapid transition and growth. These are Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, South Korea, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, Turkey, and Vietnam
• Almost a billion new consumers will enter the global marketplace in the next decade .... with an income level that allows spending on discretionary goods - McKinsey
• By 2013, consumer spending power in emerging economies could match the spending power of Western Europe - McKinsey
• The ranks of the middle class will swell by 1.8 billion to become 52% of total population, up from 30% today - McKinsey

• 80% of sales are now from abroad
• they just had record sales of $3.59 billion
• 6-7% of sales is committed to R&D
• 30% of current sales comes from new products developed in last 3 years
• sales are up 8.5% year over year
• 59% of it sales are in Asia, and 2/3 of its 59 manufacturing facilities are abroad

In other words, if your clients are aggressively globalizing, as a legal firm you need to do so as well -- and do it fast.]]> http://www.jimcarroll.com/blog/2008/09/high-velocity-globalization-ma.html http://www.jimcarroll.com/blog/2008/09/high-velocity-globalization-ma.html Global economy Industry - Prof. services Tue, 02 Sep 2008 10:02:07 -0500 Association Magazine has published my article, Metamorphosis: A Defining Success Factor for Associations.

We know we live in a world in which new trends change everything we know at a furious pace. Rapid change envelopes us, consumes us, and pounds us with its reminders of its urgency every single day. There are many obvious trends that impact us; we often refuse or are incapable of assessing their impact.

And so the future marches on, and many associations remain stuck in a rut of complacency. They deliver the same old program. They focus on the same old issues, generate the same old knowledge, plan the same old conference, and have their agenda managed by the same old membership has-beens.

Meanwhile, they bemoan the fact that membership is declining; that the Millenials seem to have little time or inclination to join them; and that the world is just becoming, well, too complex to deal with.

So they form a committee, hire a consultant, study the issue, and lull themselves into a false sense of future-security.

By doing so, they are almost guaranteeing themselves a march into oblivion.

Read the articles

• Metamorphosis: A Defining Success Factor for Associations
• Are you prepared for the new role associations will play

After Sydney, my family and I went up the east coast of Australia, to several locations. It was at Mission Beach -- sugar cane and banana tree country -- where we found local sugar cane farmers visiting the beach on Sunday, their day off.

I thought their approach and methodology to be particularly innovative! After all, you might as well use the same vehicle for leisure activities as you do for the work week.

I'm back in action, and have a heavy month of high profile keynotes coming up, on which I will post later.

]]> http://www.jimcarroll.com/blog/2008/08/innovation-in-the-most-wonderf.html http://www.jimcarroll.com/blog/2008/08/innovation-in-the-most-wonderf.html Innovation Wed, 27 Aug 2008 10:03:30 -0500 I'm off to keynote an event in Sydney, Australia; and after that, two weeks of family time in the tropics of Australia.

Years ago, inspired by similar times, I wrote about how innovation thrives in the building of sandcastles. It was a great post -- it made it into BusinessWeek. I thought it a fitting post to leave here while I'm away.

I will still be answering email and checking calls, but could just be a touch slow.

With that line of thinking,. here's my list of "10 Reasons Why Innovation Thrives in the Building of Sandcastles: and What We Can Learn From Such Creativity."

• Hierarchy has disappeared: In most cases, there isn't a boss, a reporting structure, or anything else that can cause organizational sclerosis. People just pitch in and do what needs to be done. The lack of a hierarchy is implicit to most successful teams.
• Creativity is implicit: Anyone can build a sandcastle. There are no rules or preconceived notions, other than some sand and water. The same thinking should drive corporate innovation efforts. Make do with what you've got and what you can find, and use creativity as your main asset.
• If it doesn't work the first time, do it again: It's inevitable that a rogue wave will destroy your work. This only encourages you to fix the design, or rebuild it altogether. Setbacks are meaningless, and indeed, are part of the plan.
• Experience doesn't cloud insight: Parents listen to kids, kids get bored and move on to another rampart and do something awesome. The key to sandcastle building is the combined insight of several different generations: likely one of the most important foundations for success in corporate innovation today. (See my 10 Ideas post for more on this theme.)
• Everyone picks up on the passion: People just join in and help to build. Eventually beach-neighbors join in, and the growing castle becomes a big collaborative effort. Organizations that can build similar levels of interest in the concept of innovation don't simply succeed: they exceed!
• Feedback is instant: You know right away how well your design works, particularly if it is at the waters edge, since everyone will make a comment on it as they walk by. That parallels' the instantaneity of today's markets: things are changing so fast, that you must have a constant ear tuned in to understand what your customers are telling you.
• Competition is easily scoped: Need new ideas? Want to learn from the competition? Spend a few minutes walking up and down the beach and check out the other sandcastles. Study their design, their assumptions, and see how you can improve upon them. Do the same in the corporate world: develop a finely tuned radar that signals to you how and where your world is changing.
• No idea is too dumb: There's not a lot of criticism and bias in the building of sandcastles. Any idea is welcomed. People can contribute the skills they have. Everyone is a designer, a builder and an owner. Somehow the combination just works.
• The reward is clear: At the end of the day, a great sandcastle provides a sense of accomplishment. Photos are taken, and the team talks about the experience. That's why every innovation effort needs to be celebrated, highlighted, and championed into the corporate record.
• It's fun: Enough said. If an organization approaches a problem the same way, innovation and creativity can thrive.