Major trend - the emerging smart energy infrastructure For years, I've been advising my clients that one of the biggest trends for the next decade is the rapid emergence of an intelligent energy infrastructure.
It's happening now -- it's happening all around you -- and the implications are pretty huge in terms of economic growth.
Here's a video that was filmed two years ago, in which I talk about what happens "when thermostats join the cloud."
Today, I bought the new ipThermostat app for my iPhone; it provides instant, seamless access to the two Internet-enabled Proliphix thermostats in my home and ski chalet/cottage. I've written about these devices previously on this blog. (I could link to my thermostat before, but it was via a Web page. iPThermostat makes it seamless and fast.)
Such connectivity allows me to actively manage my energy spend, and better manage my own little environmental footprint. Take us into a world in which hundreds of millions are doing the same thing, and you put a serious dent into heating and air conditioning spending.
Device connectivity is but one small trend in a number of major trends that are coming together all at once:
- HVAC 2.0: major industrial players are adding intelligence to the next generation of commercial, industrial and resident heating, ventilation and air conditioning equipment. We're seeing remote monitoring and management; better analysis and insight into ; rapid response to out-of-norm operations. All of this allows people to more actively control overall energy usage
- increasing energy / electrical system demand: quite simply, despite the recession, the demand on our electrical grid continues to increase. This demands new solutions, with the result that a lot of people are putting a lot of mindshare to the issue of how to squeeze more out of our existing energy infrastructure.
- the new NIMBYismm : one impact of social networking is that it is far more difficult for any utility to build a new power plant. The new activism can slow and delay such efforts, and often, successfully shut them down. This only makes the challenge of doing more with what we have now ever more important.
- Energy grid 2.0: do a search for "smart grid" and you'll see a flood of news stories. There's a tremendous amount of hype, but much of it is real. Cisco recently suggested that the connectivity component of the infrastructure will be worth more than $100 billion over five years. That's some serious spending.
- the impact of analytics: raw computing horsepower will help to build the smart grid -- companies like Google are aggressively involved. The same horsepower will help consumers and users better understand their usage, and allow more intelligent demand. Big, big trend!
As thermostats plug into the cloud, everything changes.
More information:
- iPThermostat app from Our Home Spaces
- Blog post When thermostats get connected
- Blog post Silicon Valley: Is Innovation Dead?
- Blog post HVAC 2.0
- Trends document (big PDF); page 3 Analytics & the energy grid
- Proliphix Internet enabled thermostats
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Innovation and the future of energy
I spent some time with the CEO and senior management team of a large global energy company.
They engaged me to provide them with insight on the trends which will impact the global oil, natural gas, energy and distribution sectors in the years to come.
It was a small, intimate get-together with about 40 senior executives; I provided my insight into the trends that I believe will have the most impact. That was followed by about an hour of very intense, deep probing discussion; I obviously stirred up some creative thinking within the group.
While not going into the specifics, the broad brush strokes of what I covered off included my observations that they should be thinking about these issues.
- presume massive market disruption: Think GoogleCar: don't limit your view of the future as to what might transpire. The future of any industry will likely bear no resemblance to the industry structure of today. Future competitors will probably come from completely outside of an existing industry. Challenge every assumption that you have about the future.
- prepare for significant transformation: realize that existing insurmountable challenges are simply a big opportunity to someone else. Someone, somewhere, is going to figure out how to plug hundreds of thousands if not millions of small, local, home based renewable energy sources into the energy grid. It's mostly a computation/mathematical issue: the energy grid was not designed for two way electricity transmission, and so there will have to be an intense amount of computational dynamics to structure a solution. Result? An organization that is a master of massive computational capabilities --- and hence, grid management -- might very well be the new energy company of the future.
- find opportunity in scientific rapidity: we're in the era of global collaborative knowledge generation, and R&D is rapidly externalizing. The infinite global idea loop means that scientific discovery is now happening faster than ever before, which provides for more product and market opportunity. Innovative organizations plug in, ensuring that all staff are in tune with the rapid rate of scientific advance that surrounds them, and are prepared to ride new emerging ideas as soon as they begin to emerge.
- capitalize on skills fragmentation: the war for talent will define future success. We're entering a time of massive skills specialization and ever smaller knowledge niches. As I covered off in my keynote to a global financial audience in the Cayman's, it's the organizations that can build a culture, structure and flexibility to attract and retain skills that will find the key to success in the high velocity economy.
- structure for volatility: extreme volatility is the 'new normal.' If you have the capability to quickly adjust strategy, structure, plans, skills, projects and teams, you've got the right stuff for the new world of constant change.
- prepare for business intensity: innovative organizations plan for more rapid entrance and exits from new markets. They do so through flexible structure. Partnership takes on new role in era of exponentiating, fast complexity and the rapid emergence of new opportunities: if you can scale up, you can win big.
That's the bottom line for innovating in the high velocity energy industry.
Related posts:
- The Google Car and massive market disruption
- Global infinite idea loop
- Talent, not money, is the new corporate battlefront
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Video - "The impact of social networking on brands"
There are 147 million people interacting on social networks through mobile devices today - expect that to grow to 1 billion within 5 years.
A clip from a recent keynote in which I outline the dramatic impact that social networking -- Twitter, Facebook, etc -- is having on brand image, relevance of brand, and longevity of brand.
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Where's the growth? Rethinking long term opportunity
I wrote this PDF report last spring, before the recession set in. Yet I still think it makes for a lot of powerful arguments as to where we will see industrial and market growth in the future.
From the introduction: Gloom has set in on global markets. Volatility rages. Some organizations have gone into a mode of "aggressive indecision," deferring action while they try to figure out "what comes next." A pretty lousy strategy that is doomed to fail in the longer term.
Future oriented leaders understand the reality of growth. They know that we live in a time in which opportunities for growth abound. They've aligned the mission of the organization so that they are capitalizing on real opportunity, not short term economic challenges.
Growth is everywhere
It's easy during a time of economic volatility to lose sight of where the global economy is really headed. Yet while stock markets might rock, innovation thrives.
New ideas continue to be explored, markets grow, and industries emerge. A variety of trends indicate that opportunities for growth continue to surround us.
- Global food production must double in the next twenty years to match population growth. There's nothing but upside in agriculture!
- New industries and markets continue to emerge as advancements in the science behind energy, infrastructure, connectivity and health care drive fascinating new areas of growth.
- Many simple and obvious trends drive growth. Generational growth drives the rapid emergence of new markets: by 2020, 17% of the global population will be 65 years or older. Someone will sell a lot of phones with really big buttons!
Think growth. Think opportunity. Innovate for future, don't stagnate with the past.
More information:
- Read Where's the growth : global innovation opportunities for the long term
- Read Infrastructure is the new plastic
- Read 7 Things to Do Right Now as the Upturn Begins
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The Internet economy: How it will drive recovery
From my May CAMagazine column.
As we worry and wonder about the state of the global economy, we should remind ourselves that one thing is certain. At some point in the future,newspapers will run banner headlines featuring the words "Economic Recovery."
The challenge with this particular downturn is that every single event -- downsizing, layoff, missed earnings target or corporate bankruptcy -- is now repeatedly examined in depth on 24-hour news channels. As a result, it's easy to lose sight of the following key trends, which will help lead us into economic recovery.
Infrastructure:: There is no doubt there will be a significant national economic stimulus due to infrastructure spending, but I believe we're entering the era of smart infrastructure, which will involve more than shovels and buckets. For example, roadworks projects will use smart-highway technology, such as the linkage of spatial databases (think Google Maps) to GPS technology embedded in cars. It won't be long before you can put your car on autopilot, so to speak, carefully keeping up with traffic flow as measured by highway-embedded sensors. Science fiction? I don't think so. Put it this way: every bit of new infrastructure will be integrated with the Internet, and that will provide for some fascinating opportunities.
Healthcare: The ramp-up in healthcare spending that will occur as boomers age will be staggering, and this will perversely drive job growth at the same time it strains the budget. In the US, healthcare spending could equal 60% of gross domestic product in some states within 10 years. Such stark realities are driving furious rates of business model, technological, structural and other innovations in healthcare, much of which will involve sophisticated Internet technologies. For years, I've been talking about the potential for bio-connectivity devices: smart home-based medical monitoring technologies doctors can use, via the Internet, to monitor noncritical-care patients. Such innovations will drive a variety of growth-oriented markets.
Environment: Despite the slowdown, there is no pullback in major efforts to deal with challenging issues, which means ecological spending will continue to drive growth markets. McDonald's is investing in a new company-wide intelligent energy infrastructure management system to deal with annual energy costs of US$1 billion. It expects to reduce overall costs by 20% by having the ability to remotely manage and monitor fryers, air conditioning, water usage and other devices throughout thousands of its restaurants. This will involve using the Internet as a backbone to a sophisticated global energy management system.
Industry reinvention: Similarly, connectivity will play a key role in the reinvention of products and industries. There is a lot of talk about the concept of Car 2.0, which involves a fundamental reinvention of current transportation mind-sets. There is a strong belief that we will see a reinvention of the auto industry, particularly as Silicon Valley begins to laser-aim its focus at the next generation of automotive business model. The next-generation automobile, if it emerges from the land of high-tech, will have "connectivity" as its middle name.
The change agenda of Generation Y: As I described in last month's column ("They'll spice up your systems," p. 14),the members of this technologically aggressive, entrepreneurial generation will completely reshape the fundamentals of every industry, driving economic growth.
All in all, my view is that beyond a three- to six-month horizon, we will start to realize areas of economic growth, and the Internet will continue to play a key role.
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It's January 15, 2020 : Do you know where your healthcare system is?
Grab the PDF by clicking on the image on the right!
The world of healthcare and medicine is on the edge of a period of massive transformation.
Do you have any idea as to how sweeping the forthcoming changes are?
Maybe not -- the future of healthcare is often lost in a raging debate that focuses on the current challenges faced by the system.
But if you step back and think about where we'll be in 2020, then you can appreciate the scope of the trends which are now underway.
Rapid technological development and relentless innovation are the two key trends that will provide for a forthcoming massive transformation of our health care system.
I've learned that sometimes, it is easier to open up the minds of people to big trends by taking a look *back* rather than by taking a look forward. When I was the closing keynote speaker for the 4th Annual World Healthcare Innovation & Technology Congress in Washington DC last December -- one of the world's premier health innovation events at the cusp of innovative healthcare thinking -- I took the approach of looking back from 2020, to see what happened in the last 10 years.
It was a great talk -- with lots of wonderful feedback. So I wrote it into a research report in a PDF, that you can share around. Maybe this can help you to stir up some creative and innovative thinking!
After all, when it comes to future trends, you've got to work to open up the minds of people!
So let's say it's the year 2020. Let's say you've looked at the big changes that occurred in healthcare from 2010 to 2020.
What do you see? Take a look.
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Good jobs in Bad Times - I'm interviewed on PBS on future career trends
WKSU, the PBS affiliate in Cleveland, Ohio, has been running a series this week titled "Good Jobs in Bad Times." It's a serious look at current and future job and career trends. Topics include "high-paying tech jobs, careers that don't need a four-year degree, the re-growth of agriculture as industry, working part-time full-time, career makeovers, the truth about healthcare, bridge jobs after graduation and the future of the NE Ohio employment outlook."
I'm interviewed in the final segment, "What's next:Jobs of the future will likely refine the jobs of today."
Here's an extract: you can visit the site and listen to the series at the links below. I'm on at 2:58 on the timeline.
Jim Carroll of Toronto is a futurist who studies trends and tries to predict what lies ahead. He believes the growing interest in alternative energy and "green" products will generate new jobs in coming years, but not just in obvious ways such as building wind turbines and solar panels.
For example, "there's a lot of very unique research and development occurring out there having to do with packaging," Carroll said. "And what that leads to is new products coming to market. It involves new companies, it involves new growth industries. ...So, what you're going to have is the emergence of new companies with a new mind set developing these new products to meet new societal demands. And when you look at that, that's where some of the job growth is going to occur."
Carroll said companies must closely watch for trends that can be turned into new jobs. But, not everyone has the resources of a big company to find and capitalize on the next big thing. For individuals planning to train for new careers, Carroll advises they pursue jobs that are evolving in areas like health care. "Patient navigators," for example, are increasing in demand.
"It's a doctor or a nurse or a medical professional or someone with specific training who simply steers the patient through the complexity of the increasingly complex health care system," Carroll said. "It's estimated there's about 18,000 of these people in the US health care system today. It's estimated that number will grow to about 180,000 by the year 2015. That's the emergence of a new career.
"And if you're thinking, 'Where are the jobs going to be in the future?' It's in things like that."
It's a time series and interview, because on Monday I do a keynote for a group of HR professionals, community leaders, social innovators, career development and employment preparation practitioners, labour market experts and employers, on the theme of "Careers 2015." It will be a real, practical look at what we can expect in terms of career transitions, new careers and job opportunities a half decade out.
Think growth!
More information:
- Go to the Good Jobs in Bad Times site
- Go to the What's next:Jobs of the future will likely refine the jobs of today section
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HVAC 2.0 - Thoughts on my Las Vegas keynote
I just came off stage in Las Vegas from an opening keynote for a group of about 500 representatives for Trane / Ingersoll Rand, and their key contractor partners. My keynote was to focus on "7 Things They Should Do Right Now to Innovate When Faster is the New Fast."
Certainly it can be tough in the construction industry right now, and particularly so for contractors. They're witnessing a laundry list of challenges, including:
- Project deferment, postponement and cancellation
- Prevalence of below-cost bidding
- Financing is vanishing
- New demands for cost-cutting and project management
- A capital spending freeze at many organizations
- A looming funding crisis (e.g. university endowment collapse means less college and university construction in the future)
First off, there's a lot of fiscal momentum, with the stimulus spending including some:
- $6.4 billion for water projects
- $50 billion for energy programs (efficiency & renewable energy)
- $11 billion on a "smart electrical grid"
- $4.5 billion on federal building energy efficiency
- $47 billion in state fiscal relief, with permission to use funds for school modernization/repair
Beyond that though, the future looks tremedously bright for the HVAC industry because of what we might call HVAC 2.0. In a nutshell, the industry is going to play a huge role as we work to fix the big societal problems of energy and the environment.
And that is going to happen with the rapid emergence of highly intelligent building infrastructure; ten years out, most buildings will be smart buildings; the Internet and IP will be the backbone to a system that provides for intelligent energy management, monitoring and usage. Silicon Valley and HVAC are getting married, and the result is going to be remarkable.
The National Institute of Building Sciences comments on the impact of this trend, noting that "...an economic expansion based on emerging green markets would create an estimated 3 million jobs ... and help establish communities with high-performance buildings that are both economically advantageous and environmentally conscious."
The trend is driven by two things that have undeniable monentum: the need for energy savings, and the green building movement. Consider the health care sector. Green specs in health care / hospital building projects has gone from 13.3 percent in 2006, to 37.6 percent in 2007, to an even higher percentage in 2008. There's a bit of pullback in 2009 as projects are deferred, but the increase will continue to come at us with a vengeance.
So as a contractor, how do you innovate? By keeping on top of fast pace trends in your industry in terms of methodology, ideas, technology, new design thinking -- high velocity change!!!!
So what I suggested to them was that, for example, they could get out in front of tenant / building manager needs, with this line of thinking:
- when times get tough, quality, service and relationships rule
- success is found not by competing on price, but through partnership: ie. 'we've got the latest strategies to help achieve cost savings' (i.e. remote energy management)
- key attitude? "we're on top of fast paced developments with building management, so you don't need to!"
I do a tremendous of research when I go in to keynote a group. That's why I've got such a solid, blue chip, global client list. Real innovation takes real thinking, with an alignment of existing and forthcoming trends to innovation opportunities.
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The explosion of mobile banking! My upcoming Texas keynote ....
I'm off to Austin, Texas today, where I'll be the closing keynote speaker tomorrow for the annual meeting of the Texas Credit Union League.
My role is to motivate and challenge the audience to continue to focus on applying innovative and creative ideas to their businesses, given that there is constant change within the financial sector. Not just due to the financial crisis, but also due to rapidly shifting consumer behavior, the rapid emergence of new technologies, and the extremely fast development of new business models.
Particularly with the idea of mobile banking!
Take the story of Wizzit (which boasts the slogan, "With Wizzit, you have your bank in your pocket"), based in South Africa. 200,000 South African's have signed up for the service, in which they pay bills, store cash like a debit card, transfer funds, and send remittances. Wizzit is completely text messaging based. Accounts can be opened in 30 seconds via a call center, and are sold via Wizzkids (It's based upon the JetBlue model - with these representatives working at home). Plans are to expand the business model into Eastern Europe, according to Bank Technology News.
Then there is the story of Guaranty Bank in Turkey, which boasts $61 billion in assets. They set up a mobile banking portal -- and in the first two months, saw 1 million page views, 50,000 customers, 30,000 transactions and $24 million in transaction volume.
Today, they've got 1.3 million mobile banking customers, and believe that the service is accessible on 5,100 cellphone models.
Quite clearly, mobile is going to play a huge role in financial services, and it's happening NOW!
On stage, I'll be challenging this group to realize that their future success will come from their ability to respond to rapidly changing products, markets, business models, rapid economic trends, and competitive. In that way, innovation isn't just about new products -- it's about responding to the reality that in every industry, faster is the new fast.
More information
- Wizzit Web site
- Innovation in the financial sector - related post
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Thinking big - the transformative ideas that will shape our future
In the interview just posted on my site ("What is a futurist"), I commented that "we live in transformative times -- we'll look back at 2009-2010 as the period of time in which we started to apply really transformative thinking to solving some of the big problems we have in health care, energy and the environment."
I find that a lot of people don't think about the major changes that are going to occur over the long term. Bill Gates caught this reality when he observed that “we always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten."
I followed this line of thinking when I was the opening keynote speaker for the Alberta Senior Citizens Housing Association two weeks ago. The challenges faced by the industry are pretty stark:
That's simply not going to be the case -- the simple demographics of North American society indicate that society and retirement savings won't be able to pay for this reality. Get into other areas of the world, including Asia, and the crisis in seniors housing is going to be even bigger, particularly that some countries aren't even yet to the unit-level that we have in North America.
So what's going to happen? We're going to see big, transformative thinking. Rather than placing seniors in retirement homes, why not extend the retirement home concept into their own home. Community and family care is going to play a huge role here,
Technology will also play a big role in this transformative change, as it will move us to the concept of the "virtual retirement home." By 2020, most seniors will live in their own homes, and their health conditions will be actively monitored through a network of intelligent bio-connectivity and other devices. We won't have a lot of senior citizen homes -- we'll have virtual seniors networks.
In my keynote, I spoke about research that is underway now into this concept. (US Fed News, February 2009 Health-monitoring technology helps seniors live at home longer, University of Missouri Researchers find"). Two key points:
When I look around me at the deep problems our world faces, I see a lot of innovative and transformative thinking, with big ideas as to how to solve those complex problems.
Transformative thinking -- it's all around you -- you need to start watching.
Video - Reinventing brand relevance in the era of social networking
Here's a clip from a recent keynote in Las Vegas.
I'm challenging the audience to think about the issue of maintaining brand relevance, in the era in which customers increasingly influence the perception of brands through social networking tools.
The key challenge today is preventing a brand from becoming "from the olden days." I emphasize this with a quote from Multichannel Marketing, April 2008.
The hollowing out of big corporate R&D
I spoke to the broad theme of "innovating faster," but also challenged the crowd to think about how the "source of innovative ideas" has changed.
There are some pretty dramatic trends which have gained traction. The source of innovation is rapidly shifting from:
More information:
"Dive-in movies" and High-Velocity Product Innovation
Here's an interesting way to think about the issue of high-velocity product innovation.
I was keynoting a conference at the Bellagio in Las Vegas, last September, and was playing into the theme of how product innovation occurs today at a faster pace than ever before.
I told the story of a 'dive-in movie' that I held at home for my sons, and how a simple blog posting got picked up by a huge number of consumer technology companies -- with an obvious result.
This particular story was a followup to a trend I was speaking about at an event in New York City in 2005 - that involving the rapid emergence of "outdoor living rooms."
The key point? No matter what industry you are in -- consumer products, financial services, technology -- product innovation continues to speed up. New markets and products emerge faster than ever before. New brands, potential challengers, and innovative new ideas emerge at a higher velocity.
Related postings:
Understanding generational transformation: cardboard people, and plasma people
During a CEO strategy session last week in Miami Beach for a major global publisher, I outlined that one of the key areas of focus for innovative organizations is effective "generational collaboration."
There's no doubt that the transformation in politics in the last year is due to the way the "next generation" has utilized the technology tools they know to effectively steamroller the opposition. This is an extremely transformative trend that will impact every industry through the next ten years. It is perhaps the MOST transformative trend.
In how many organizations is senior management being similarly blindsided by rapid developments and a dramatic power shift as the next generation pursues their unique ideas, utilizing the power of social networking and other technologies?
Does your organization leadership team really understand the vast transformation that is underway in the economy as Gen-Connect asserts itself in the workplace, within business models, and within corporate structure?
In my Ready, Set, Done: How to Innovate When Faster is the New Fast book, I opened with a chapter that explored this phenomena in the context of 'generational dynamics.' Titled Cardboard People, Plasma People.
It's well worth a read.
If it strikes a chord with you, pick up a book with the little widget above, and it will be shipped to you within the week.
More information:
The Obama economy: what comes next?
Think GROWTH!
"Competing with analytics" - "the next billion dollar industry"
So I admit I was surprised, given the massive quantity of doom-and-gloom thinking which is smothering creativity everywhere, when I came across this advertisement, offering a 3-day executive level course on 'Competing with Analytics." And right there, they've quoted my "What Comes Next" document, which was re-printed in Toronto, Canada's Globe and Mail earlier in January of this year: "Analytics is hot....it's where the next-billion dollar industries will be born."
I don't disagree with that assessment, and neither does IBM CEO Sam Palmisano.
As quoted widely, and from an article in eWeek, in early November he made a speech in which he "called on the next administration to invest more money in refurbishing the electronic grid system to reduce the amount of energy required to power it, make better use of information technology to reinvent the way healthcare is provided and green technology investments that would enhance traffic and mass transit systems to make everybody who depends on these systems more efficient."
Which, if you study it, revolves around analytics, linked to infrastructure. Where's the growth? We all know where it is!
Obviously Sam is a bit self-serving with his call to action, but the truth is IBM is one of many companies that is at the forefront of smart infrastructure development.
There's lots of growth out there. Innovators stay focused on opportunity, the future, and educating themselves on the trends that are going to have real impact in the future. Ten years back, you'll look at this advertisement and think -- "man, those guys were on to something."
I think I'll write the folks running the 3-day course and see if they will give me a complimentary admission. (-;
More information
Retail and consumer product innovation: a report from NYC
They've released a summary of the overall day; in addition to my own insight, participants included Katie Lee Joel (pictured on the right), author of the Comfort Table; as well as "supermarket guru" Phil Lampert.
I spoke to a variety of trends that are impacting retail and food markets; for example, the trend in which in store display technology -- a "new influencer" -- will come to influence how shoppers shop, faster than we think:
In-store influencers will now evolve at the pace of the iPhone and the Blackberry, challenging marketers to keep up with the pace. Faster is the new innovation and innovation isn't just about new product design - it's about responding to fast-paced consumer change.
Marketing Implication: Marketers must work harder than ever to capture the attention of the consumer and make a connection. Brands must keep up with the pace of consumer change in order to stay relevant. More information:
Read the RDA Food & Entertainings Consumer Food Symposium summary (PDF) 10 fundamental trends that don't change with the meltdown
So what are the trends that will drive future growth? Off the top of my head, there are several:
More information: 7 Things to Do Right Now As the Upturn Begins!
What has become evident is that the most pressing issue for leaders today is focus. While volatility rocks global markets, there continue to be fundamental truths: your industry, products, competition, skills requirements, organizational capabilities, and ability to respond to rapid change will define your future success.
Here's my advice on what you should be doing right now to ensure that you are ready for what comes next, based, in part, on a blog entry I wrote last April!
Reaching the new travel consumer
Alberta, located in Canada, has an extremely hot economy -- globally, it stands as the home of the 2nd largest provable oil reserves in the world, just after Saudi Arabia. Most of this is tied up in the 'tar sands,' which costs quite a bit more than traditional oil reserves to bring to market. Hence,there is a flood of infrastructure investment and other spending going on.
Needless to say, even thought it's a hot economy, the economic 'correction' (and certainly volatility in the price of oil), as well as other issues, is providing for a bit of a challenge in the tourism sector.
What am I doing at the conference? Notes the brochure: " Jim will speak to the fact that travel product innovations occur today at such a pace that simply keeping up can be a challenge. A furious pace of technological innovation continues unabated, with the rapid emergence of new technologies that change the way the travel consumer plans theirtravels. The Web continues to make massive inroads into tourism planning and business model change. It's a fast paced world -- and that's whyleading edge organizations are focused on staying ahead of the trends that are impacting the high-velocity economy of today. Join international futurist, trends and innovation expert Jim Carroll as he puts into perspective how the world of tourism is changing -- and how organizations are innovating in order to keep up with it!"
What I am talking about? Quite a few trends:
Bottom line -- innovate!
A truly staggering, transformative trend yet to unfold
Twenty years from now, most people will look back and realize that right about now, we had three huge, transformative trends underway: device connectivity, geo-connectivity, and bio-connectivity
Essentially, everything around is about to become linked in -- every device that surrounds your life. My home thermostat is linked to the Internet, and that has changed the scope of how I interact with energy.
Layered on top of device connectivity is spatial intelligence for each device -- vis-a-vis Google Maps types of applications. Think about new forms of energy management built upon sophisticated geographic mapping applications.
Add to this the fact that this type of technology will migrate to devices that will help us better manage complex health circumstances.
I've been writing and speaking about the idea of bio-connectivity and the concept of "hyper-connectivity" for over a decade (before Nortel lamely built a lame marketing campaign around the latter phrase a year ago.) It remains one of the most significant trends that will yet unfold in the health care sector. Our concept of health care delivery will be forever transformed.
Simply put, link the scope of the looming health care crisis to the momentum that will come from Silicon Valley for medical device connectivity, and there are some pretty powerful things happening. Think about what happens as spatial device connectivity comes to everyday things around you -- such as a baseball bat! Read more below. There's a lot going on in this space, and you'd do well to understand it.
Opportunity through the next decade is going to be found by those who will adjust and adapt buisness models, attitudues, structures, methodologies and capabilities to this new reality.
More information:
Computational analytics is another new plastic!
At my keynote to the US Association of Actuaries this week, and for a keynote to LOMA last week (an insurance association conference), I played a series of maps that showed the rapid emergence of obesity in the US population from 1995 to the present day, The maps were provided by the Insurance Information Institute.
I challenged the audience to think about what will happen through the next five years: we will see the emergence of "location intelligence dashboards" that will allow such professionals, to examine in real time, the emergence of new risk factors in their industry.
Location intelligence is coming about as organizations learn to link massive stores of information and research to spatial -- or map oriented (i.e. Google Maps) information. An entire new profession is emerging at the same time -- location intelligence professionals.
This is part of an overall sweeping trend, in which computational analytics play a massive role in the emergence of new careers, businesses and industries. We are entering a time that involves the rapid processing of massive stores of information and unique new ways of analyzing information.I talk about this extensively in my future oriented keynotes and is a topic that is covered in several trends documents on my site.
More information
"65% of the kids in preschool today will work in jobs or careers that don't yet exist"
I then challenge people to think through the global trends at work which are making such a bold statement into a reality. And I often walk through the types of new careers that are emerging in every industry to emphasize the point. So what are a few of these new professions? There are dozens: here's five to start your day thinking about: Five more trends to define your future
Bio-connectivity and the rapid emergence of new markets
Consider the rapid emergence of new markets. As new scientific discoveries occur at an ever more rapid pace -- due to the massive global collaboration with Web 2.0 as well as new information research sharing paradigms within established peer review based research methodologies -- there are countless new products and markets that are being brought to life. Take that reality, and apply it to any industry. Say, health care. Then parse that industry down into dozens or hundreds of sub-markets, and you'll discover forthcoming new, billion dollar markets. Consider, for example, the concept of bioconnectivity, which will be one of the most significant trends -- and new markets -- to play out in the next twenty years in the health care industry. What is it? Quite simply, the marriage of the computer chip and connectivity technology to medical devices, and ultimately, to people. One small submarket that will come with bio-connectivity is the emergence of smart, intelligent, home-based medical devices. Have you ever seen a Sharper Image catalogue, or its online Web site? It's the ultimate source for unique gadgets and toys of every type. Think about what the catalog might look like in 10 years, when its full of home-based bioconnectivity devices aimed at the baby boomer set. Digital Connect Magazine, which monitors development with home and business connectivity devices, suggests that U.S. revenue from digital-home health services will quadruple to exceed $2.1 billion by 2010. The two fastest growing areas? "Wellness monitoring services" and "e-health services" will each achieve a compound annual growth rate of more than 50 per cent. The former allows doctors to remotely monitor a patient's condition (such as their insulin levels), while the latter provides active medical care (such as an intelligent sub-dermal medicine patch, which not only provides a patient automatic ingestion of a particular pharmaceutical, but allows the doctor to monitor its effect.) It might sound like science fiction, but it is a very real development. Sit back and think about the business models and opportunities that flow from such a transformative trend. Link it to another trend: a whole bunch of baby boomers are getting older, sicker, and the health care system is breaking down. Hospitals will go virtual, extending their services through bio-connectivity, so that non-critical care boomers can be treated and monitored at home. This is slam-dunk obvious! It's BIG TREND. Its' but one of many. Simply put, our new reality is that science, and hence markets, industries, products and services, are evolving and changing at a rate never seen before. And that's where your own opportunity for innovation comes from! Infrastructure is the new plastic
This morning, I caught wind of a blog entry that commented on the general crankiness of American's towards their "crumbling infrastructure." For example, Thomas Friedman commented in a New York Times article this week: "A few weeks ago, my wife and I flew from New York’s Kennedy Airport to Singapore. In J.F.K.’s waiting lounge we could barely find a place to sit. Eighteen hours later, we landed at Singapore’s ultramodern airport, with free Internet portals and children’s play zones throughout. We felt, as we have before, like we had just flown from the Flintstones to the Jetsons. It's the rapid ramp-up in sentiments like this that drive the reality that infrastructure is the new plastic. It's one aspect of the global economy where spending is going to increase at a furious pace. Consider the trends that are coming together that provide for this simple reality: And perhaps one of the biggest, yet unforeseen markets, will have to do with "intelligent infrastructure." Think thermostats! More information: Future oriented leaders understand the reality of growth. They know that we live in a time in which opportunities for growth abound. They've aligned the mission of the organization so that they are capitalizing on real opportunity, not short term economic challenges. Growth is everywhere. It's easy during a time of economic volatility to lose sight of where the global economy is really headed. Yet while stock markets might rock, innovation thrives. New ideas continue to be explored, markets grow, and industries emerge. A variety of trends indicate that opportunities for growth continue to surround us. Read this document to get in the right frame of mind for the future.....and think growth. Think opportunity. Innovate for future, don't stagnate with the past. Download Where's the Growth? Global Innovation Opportunities for the Long Term Leading in turbulent times: how to innovate during the recession!
Given this reality, the key question going forward is: what do you do now to ensure that you remain innovative, competitive, and forward-oriented? Innovate for the upturn! That's the key message I focused on with my clients in 2002-3, and the same message holds true today. And that was the focus of a keynote last week when I spoke to one of the largest US commercial / industrial real estate brokerage groups. There were several bits of insight I shared with them: Put sub-prime into perspective Keep focused on the longer term view Don't let aggressive indecision take over your thinking To innovate in the upturn, don't let a short-term vs long-term trend disconnect take over your strategic thinking. Already, I can see the signs of some companies heading into an innovation rut, their staff and executives encumbered by a dangerous state of complacency, while other companies innovate, change, and adapt to the "new normal" that is now our reality. In the last recession, "aggressive indecision" became a driving cultural and leadership trait. Organizations that fell into this funk fell behind. Innovative companies didn't permit that to happen then, and you shouldn't let this happen now. More information: Future careers: Knowledge explosion is key
I passionately believe this to be true: and I've seen the trend occurring in countless professions and industries. This week, I keynoted a Career Day event at Capitol One in Richmond, Virginia ; the focus was upon the rapid emergence of new careers, and the rapid evolution of existing skills. My message, in looking at the future career opportunities, was that there's nothing but upside, as long as people keep reinventing their skill set. The topic of the future of careers is a big one these days; I'm being called into many organizations and events to talk about the issue, particularly in the context of recent economic trends. Some of these events have been local economic development conferences. In one talk in January, I spoke to an audience of executives and educators in an auto-sector city ; a group of people caught up in the throes of economic restructuring and turmoil. Talk about an audience in the midst of challenge! Yet when you are in that type of economic bubble, it can be hard to see the future career opportunities that do exist. That's why I didn't focus on the short term economic turmoil, but instead, on the real, practical trends that are defining the careers of tomorrow. Many sectors of the global economy: and in particular, the manufacturing and financial sectors, are being hit hardest by the US recession, the sub-prime meltdown, and global competition. The auto-town event got covered in the local paper: and the story ended up being reprinted throughout the Canadian press, including in Vancouver, Calgary, Ottawa and Montreal. One of the key observations I made in the article: "We have to figure out how we can continue to move up the knowledge ladder because there's going to be a massive shortfall in specialized skills because of the rapid growth of knowledge." That's an important issue to think about, and the article is well worth a read. More information: "Here we are now, entertain us" - Decoding Gen-Connect
In the column, "Here we are now, entertain us," I take a look at the unique attitudes that Gen-Connect is now starting to bring in to the workplace. There are several key observations from the article that are critical to understanding the future of the workforce: What Comes Next? An Outlook into 2008 and Beyond
Take a look at my newly released quick-report, What Comes Next: A Trends Perspective for 2008 and Beyond. My message for my clients throughout the year - whether it was 2,000 executives at the World Congress for Quality, or the senior management team of one of the largest commercial construction companies in the US -- was consistent. The high-velocity economy demands that we think, react, plan and manage differently. Some of the guidance I shared with global clients concerning future trends is found in the report; I highlight what I think are some of the most important ones that we need to be thinking about, broadly defined as: I prepared the document on a MacBook Pro -- I made the switch from Windows this year! -- using the TokyoRPG Style Template for iWork 2007 Pages from KeynotePro. They have awesome styles for Pages and Keynote; if you're an OS/X and iWork user, take a look. When thermostats get connected .....
I'll be offering up my thoughts, in the form of articles and video clips, issues related to innovation, trends and the future. In this first video clip, I talk about the unique world of massive connectivity -- a world where I can actually link from my cell phone into a cottage thermostat. One of my latest columns also focused on the continued trend to a digitized home -- in Home, Smart Home, I take a look at some of the emerging technologies. That future exists today : simply look to Proliphix. Plain old furnace thermostats -- except with a LAN connection built in. You can access your furnace thermostat from anywhere via your Web browser, and so you can control the heat in a cottage or other remote location. And since Proliphix has also released an API, you can write a little bit of code to access and control it through your cell phone. This is game changing stuff -- in that a simple connected device will change careers, industries, design, construction. There's also a huge impact on energy efficiency with this type of stuff; remote control and management at the residential level will will a lot of innovative, green solutions towards energy consumption. I will be keynoting the Plumbing-Heating-Contracting-Cooling Association's annual Construction Contractors' Alliance Meeting in Dallas, Texas in February 2008, taking a look at some key trends occurring in the construction industry. This type of connected device, set to become a part of our digital lives, will certainly be part of the discussion. Related postings: Making generations work - Cardboard people and plasma people
I do a tremendous number of keynotes that focus on the issue of "managing millenials," and the complexities of change occurring in the workplace. See, for example, my blog post, "Don't Mess with my Powder, Dude." (below) Yet organizations need to move beyond the staffing issues that come with new generations: they must also ensure that they can innovate at the rapid rates demanded in our new world, and they need to do that by keeping up with the new ideas and innovations occuring with younger staff. In this video clip, I take a look at the story of the "plasma people" and the "carboard people." Innovation occurs when different generations -- with different attitudes to change -- can cooperate and see eye to eye, and take advantage of different strengths. In this clip, I tell tjhe story where this clearly wasn't the case! This is a video clip from a recent keynote that I gave for hundreds of executives from the grocery and consumer products industries, titled Faster is the New Fast: Innovating for the New. High Velocity Customer . This story also became the opening chapter in my book, Ready, Set, Done: How to Innovate When Faster is the New Fast. Watch the video clip Related postings: Health care trends and innovation
The group is devoted to trying to continue to improve the efficiency and quality of the supply-chain within the health care industry. My talk examined the future of health care; I've done such talks recently for the Blue Cross Blue Shield National Office, the Association of Organ Procurement Organizations, Harvard Pilgrim Health Care, Providence Health Care and the American Society for Health Care Risk Management. There are certainly some big challenges. Consider these realities: My talk stirred a lot of debate, and was very well received. There's an overview of some of the trends that I covered in my FUTURE MEDICINE Prescriptions for 21st Century Healthcare trends summary. Future trend - The Future of Governance
In attendance were members of the Boards of Directors for a wide variety of state and community farm credit co-ops; these folks are the backbone of the US farm lending infrastructure. The Directors are local farmers, community leaders and business executives, and hence, need to be aware of the trends impacting the local and global agricultural industries, so that they can plan accordingly, assess risk, and make sound business decisions with respect to their co-ops. My keynote took a look at "what comes next in the agricultural sector" - it's one of many talks I do within the industry. And agriculture is certainly subject to high velocity change: there's rapid evolution in science (bio-crops); new markets (bio-fuel) ; rapidly changing skills; new direct to consumer market opportunities; globalization (current food production must double in the next 30 years to keep up with global population growth.) All of which could spell opportunity if approached correctly -- or turmoil and challenge if ignored. The intent of the talk -- and the overall theme of the leadership conference -- was to ensure that these folks have the insight to direct their organizations into the future. That's an important and critical role for Boards; and FCC Services is an example of an organization that has made sure that the "future" is closely linked to the issue of "governance." I think there are too many organizations that don't do this. Sadly, with all the current focus on "compliance," I've come to believe that there is a critical lack of future planning on many other corporate boards around the world. The result is that potential risks are often ignored; then things go wrong; then the company gets sued for significant sums of money. Is this Board negligence? That's an interesting question, isn't it! Here's an example: years ago, I wrote an article indicating that one of the critical CEO/Board level issues that must be addressed had to do with network security; certainly, everyone knows that organizations should properly secure their information assets. Yet in the article, I suggested that I believe that many Boards aren't dealing with the issue, and that it was an area ripe for future exposure, noting that: Boards and CEO's should ensure -- as they are required to do with financial controls -- that the information assets of the organization are properly locked down. They must understand obvious future trends, and ensure that management has planned accordingly. I strongly believe this to be the next wave in Board responsibility. Do many Boards of Directors ensure that the organization is properly preparing for the rapidity of trends? Not many. Witness the shenanigans with the TJX Group, which had its corporate network hacked and millions of credit card numbers stolen. (The company runs HomeGoods, Marshalls, A.J. Wright, Bob's Stores and The Maxx stores; in Canada the chain consists of Winners and HomeSense.) Now comes news that a group of banks want to sue the company with respect to the issue. I can only imagine the questions that the Board of TJX is now asking! Currently, much of the focus of board governance has to do with "compliance" -- how well are boards, and the companies they are responsible for, dealing with the new realities of the post-Enron era. I believe that within the next decade, we will see Board responsbility quickly evolve into a new and much more complex era than simply making sure that "i's are dotted and the t's are crossed.' All we need are a few savvy lawyers to launch a few negligence suits against a few public companies, alleging that a Board failed to develop a plan for and respond to obvious future trends. It's a trend worth watching. More information Back in 2002 or 2003, I started talking about the concept of the GoogleCar while on stage; my theory was that we would see an organization like Google enter the automobile industry; they'd do this through the rapid assembly of disparate resources and partners, assembling the necessary expertise. As I noted in a keynote in Tampa early in 2006: Today, the leading paper covering Silicon Valley finally picked up on the idea in an article. And I can tell you -- traffic to my website is exploding today, because it seems everyone on the Web is searching for the concept of the GoogleCar. More information 10 Reasons why innovation matters for small business
The video clips filmed today will be augmented by a series of articles that focus on theme of "innovation for small/medium business" (often referred to as SME's!) There are a number of reasons why there is unprecedented opportunity for innovation within the small / medium enterprise sector: New article: Don't mess with my powder, dude!
It was titled, "Don't Mess with My Powder, Dude", and tells the unique attitude towards work and life of a snowboarder. The foreword, now available online, puts in perspective the unique and often challenging workplace changes now underway, which are often driven by unique and different attitudes towards careers and work with the younger generation. It's worth a read; you can grab a copy below. You might also want to look at Rudolf's book. Future trends - Of groundhogs, criminals and hackers
One of my recent, regular columns for a financial publication, managed to link together the issue of groundhogs (in my backyard), with the future of policing and financial crime. The article relates my backyard war with a groundhog to what I refer to as an "anticipatory approach to those with a nefarious purpose." I go on to note that "the issue of policing and law enforcement .....is much like battling a groundhog. The police deal with unique challenges that constantly change, whether fighting white-collar or street crime." The future of policing? I comment that "through the next decade, police forces will start using sophisticated technologies such as clothing that will link to an in-car mapping system through a wireless network, allowing officers to perform a “hot-location” lookup of a colleague in the field during a ground operation. We’ll see today’s current generation of military hardware become a part of tomorrow’s crime-fighting infrastructure, such as unmanned aerial drones being used for highway surveillance to crack down on street racing. Police education will change as well, with a migration toward virtual reality training based on airline simulator models." I don't know how I come up with this stuff, but the article has certainly generated a lot of welcome comment, some of it puzzled! More information Major trend - the future of the organization
He's your next employee. How are you going to recruit, retain, manage, interest and amuse this fellow? What's your workforce going to look like in 2012, 2020, or beyond? There's quite a bit of focus on trends relating to the future of the organization -- and organizations are seeing innovative strategies to cope with the world of high velocity change that we find ourselves in. Last week I was the opening keynote speaker, and a panelist later in the day, for an offsite of one of the world's largest professional services firms. Tomorrow, I keynote a get-together of key clients of a multi-billion insurance/financial services company. A few months ago, I ran a Board of Directors/CEO level meeting on the issue for a major industrial company. If you don't have this issue figured out yet, you'd better start thinking about it in a hurry. There are certain things we know for a fact that relate to the future of the organization. More information Quality, skills and the high-velocity economy
I focused, as I often do, on the need for rapid action in the high-velocity economy. At that time, just a few months ago, we had just seen the recall of various pet food products as a result of production quality issues at the Chinese manufacturer. I noted -- and these words are verbatim from the tape - "What do we do with quality in terms of velocity?" I went on to note that with we might soon see the issue of quality and China merge together ... to such a degree that companies might have to scramble to deal with quality issues that were completely unexpected just a few months ago. Fast forward, and we've got toy manufacturers testifying to Congress about quality concerns as a result of offshore production. It used to be that when it came to quality, you'd plan --> execute -- > evaluate ---> innovate. But now, with high-velocity change, sudden new issues can appear, and you've simply got to execute before you plan. What's the point? In my new book, Ready, Set, Done, I argue that talent and project agility -- that is, the ability to rapidly refocus your organization and team to deal with the rapid emergence of new issues -- will be a key cornerstone for future success. This week, I'll be doing a keynote for Tenrox, a company that specializes in software that helps an organization with resource management and optimization: in other words, deploying the right skills at the right time for the right purpose. Exactly what I talk about in the new book. The CEO, Rudolf Melik, has written a book, The Rise of the Project Workforce: Managing People and Projects in a Flat World. I contributed the foreword for the book, focusing on the theme of skills agility. It's an important issue that you need to be thinking about, particularly given the new urgency for planning on the fly. The future of the legal profession
We took a look at the future of the profession, and had a workshop that examined issues of agility, rapid response and complexity of skills. I put together a summary, based on a previous post here, that outlines both the challenges and opportunities faced by the profession. The highlights of the document, available as a PDF, takes a look at such issues as generational warfare, evidentiary challenges, rapid change and specialization, and risk minimization, to name but a few. Of the latter, I write that "One side impact of generational warfare is that “going underground” will become more acceptable. In the last few years we saw a fascinating battle between music companies and Kazaa, the music sharing organization, which used extra-territorial jurisdictional issues to provide itself some shelter against legal action. That type of activity is going to become the norm, not the exception, in the future. Indeed, going legal-underground is about to go mainstream." Trends and big transformative changes. Example: health care
In my keynotes, I often put into perspective the big, massive, sweeping transformations that can change entire industries over the longer term. That's one of the best ways to begin a process of thinking of innovation, and in finding creative solutions to challenges as well as opportunities. There's not enough long term thinking today; there is simply too much short term hype. In this short video clip, I take a look at the world of health care, and the transformation that is occuring as we move to a world of personalized medicine. As with any industry, I've focused on the wide variety of trends that will impact them -- and yes, I've provided them guidance on innovation and creativity. These folks are the "ultimate event planners" -- they are called upon to organize extremely complex affairs in a dramatically short time in very difficult circumstances. We could all learn from their resourcefulness. One of the trends I've spoken to them about is what I'd come to call "the new mourning" -- that is, how the younger generation I call Gen-Connect has a different relationship with the process of mourning. We've all seen it; 9/11, Virginia Tech and elsewhere -- spontaneous, large public gatherings, where people deal with an unforeseen tragedy by coming together. Technology -- cell phones, instant messaging, email -- results in an often instant and large-scale social means of dealing with tragedy. It's one thing to talk about a trend; it's another thing when you witness it literally in your backyard. Ten days ago, a young rugby player died after an altercation near the end of the game -- at the high school that my home office looks onto. My son and I had been at the game just ten minutes prior. When we heard the sirens, we knew that something was not good. Through the next six days, I came to witness firsthand the 'new mourning,' as his teammates, classmates, teachers, friends, neighbors and strangers gathered in various ways, at various times, spontaneously, instantly, silently. My son went to school with his younger brother; we visited the memorial that the kids assembled, several times. Earlier this week, the kids at the school returned to the field, and played a game. The neighborhood has laughter, cheers, noise and happiness once again, but the neighborhood has also forever changed. As someone who speaks on trends and the future, I do know this: the new mourning is very, very real, quite substantially different -- and is yet another example of how quickly our world around us is changing. Innovation and the new workforce
My talk today broadly revolves around the issue of "what's happening with our workforce." I'm taking the audience on a tour of the key drivers which impact organizations today, whether business or government, Banking and furniture industries -- coping at high velocity!
And I can tell you this: the undercurrent of the mood within both conferences was one of being "overwhelmed" by high velocity change! New methods of marketing, a constantly higher bar of expectations from customers, a need for relentless customer oriented innovation to meet those expectations, an accelerated product innovation cycle with a need for a faster time to market. Web 2.0, collaborative networks, social networking, new media spending, YouTube, Google! What the heck does one do!? The mindset of many senior executives today is "where do we start? My keynotes approached this by indicating the three organizational capabilities they must adjust for: 10 Long Term Trends of Real Substance
Innovation is all about adapting to the future -- and if the future is coming at you faster, then you need to innovate faster. Innovation shouldn't be about trying to survive the future -- it should be about thriving. At a recent keynote to executives within the direct marketing industry, I outline some truths as to the future: Links: High velocity retail innovation
Since then, we've seen continued massive rates of change in these sectors. Three weeks ago, I keynoted a major convenience store conference, speaking both to store and franchise owners, as well as dozens of executives from major consumer product companies. The retail industry today is now driven by hyper-innovation, rapid technological advance, increased customer expectations, rapidly evolving product trends, and increasingly fickle consumers driven by the rapidity of instant trends. How can people turn these trends into opportunity? It comes from innovation -- not just with new products, but with business process, store design and layout, rapid adoption of new products, format mix, and partnerships between the retailers, consumer goods companies and packaging companies. Some of the trends I highlighted in my talk included: The Future of Risk: Achieving Skills Agility in the High Velocity Economy
I'll be speaking to them on the broad theme of the "future of risk;" what unique new risks might we face in society as we go forward. I look at technological, social, demographic, international, bio/health care issues, and a wide variety of other trends that are changing our ideas about risk. The session description reads: I've done this talk for quite a number of organizations. What's with the zorbing ball? One thing I talk about is how global connectivity is resulting in the more rapid emergence of extreme sports and extreme ideas, and we are witnessing a society that simply seems to take on new forms of risk quicker! Zorbing is a sport in which you place yourself in a big plastic ball, and roll down a hill! The sport has gone global because of global connectivity: blogs, mailing lists, and web sites.....more connectivity means more rapid sharing of strange ideas! One of my regular columns focused this month on the issue of "hyperconnectivity." Quite simply, we're entering an era in which almost everything is becoming plugged into everything else. For example, consider what is happening in the world of sports: The bat of the future, I suggested, would have intelligence and connectivity embedded into it. The young uber-wired kids of 2025 could use that technology to analyze their swing. A backyard virtual sensor net could even feed the details to a virtual catcher 20 miles away, allowing them to carry on a dynamic, if somewhat impersonal, game of virtual baseball. Far-fetched? Not at all. Scary? Definitely. The trend toward such embedded intelligence is extremely real. And, as I said to the CEOs, the future “isn’t bad, it’s just different." As this future unfolds, there will be tremendous opportunities for innovation: from the development of new products and services, through the redefinition of existing models, as well as innovative strategies to avoid market commoditization. If you want one trend to watch for the next twenty years, this is probably the one. You should even consider what is happening with intelligent highway cones. ...... which I also cover in the article.... Read the full article Corporate banking at high velocity
My keynote took a look at the major trends that will impact corporate banking relationships in the years to come. I also hosted a panel discussion featuring senior executives from Merrill Lynch, Zurich North America and US Bank, examining the broad theme of "how do we innovate in a world of high velocity change?" What's going on in this sector of the economy mirrors so many others, as we are seeing: Fast to innovate. Fast to build. Fast to market.
The economy here, like many others, has its ups and downs; and in going forward into an economy of rapid change, it's the innovation capability that will make the difference. The Premier of the province, Dalton McGuinty, has just issued his first Ontario Innovates newsletter; I'm interviewed within it. The Premier notes that "we're living in an exciting era where ideas are springing to life faster than we can blink." He goes on to note that "in today's hyper-competitive global economy, "it's not about the big overtaking the small. It's about the fast overtaking the slow." I agree, commenting ""We can be wide open to the world and participate in global opportunities, or we can retreat and hide away from it ..... I sense folks are dispirited, especially in smaller communities. It's like they feel they tried it and it didn't work. We need to remind people of what is possible." Read the full newsletter Read an extract What's happening with our workforce?
There is an intense degree of interest amongst executives as to the extent of the looming skills shortage, how to retain and attract critical skill sets, and how to deal with the challenges of the next generation. I've rolled this into an overall keynote topic: "What's Happening With Our Workforce: Achieving Competitive Advantage Through Skills Agility." In these types of talks, I've been taking a look at a wide variety of trends: I've captured these thoughts on the workplace challenges of the future in a recent Trends Overview: 21st Unique Characteristics of 21st Centuries Skills, available here. Given the number of calls that I receive, this is certainly one of the hottest topics for 2007! Innovation and the future of education
What's happening with our worforce? That is increasingly the focus of many of my recent talks. The overall theme was "innovation in the world of high velocity education." Broadly, my talk was based around one of my favorite quotes: that of educator Lewis Perelman: "Learning is what most adults will do for a living in the 21st century." There's a lot of opportunity for innovation in any educational institution: innovating with the methodology of education upgrading, new knowledge opportunities, and innovation in the overall administration and delivery of education. Beyond that, there's the overall issue of ensuring that in a high-velocity world, educators are delivering the right knowledge at the right time for the right purpose. To that end, I outlined what I believe to be the primary areas for innovation: What happens when light stops?
A few weeks ago, I keynoted a crowd of 3,000 telecom professionals in Florida. One of the comments I made was this: when it comes to the velocity of change in the "big media universe," we can only expect that the bandwidth and computing power in our lives will become ever more plentiful, and ever faster, because scientists are figuring out how to slow light to a crawl. That's important, because it migrates us from a world of "electronics based computing" to "photonics computing." The difference in speed, capacity, processing power and everything else will be simply staggering. Think optical-chips based on light, not today's model-T's based on electrons. This trend will make the electronic computers of today look like Cro-Magnon tools compared to the optical computers of tomorrow. Last week, I caught an article in which the folks at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) predicted that optical chips will be here within 5 years. A year ago, at another telecom event in Florida, I made the then bold prediction that as scientists learn to stop light, we'll see bandwidth improvements of a huge degree. Some industry folks in the room were taken aback: it's kind of interesting to read the article that was printed at the time (found below.) It's awful nice to see predictions of the past become mainstream quicker than you might have expected! -------------------- Optical Futures: Another ET Look at Light Among the many intriguing observations and reports shared by the SCTE Conference on Emerging Technologies keynoter Jim Carroll in Tampa two weeks ago was the progress that optical researchers were making on the question of how to slow down light. In our ET report in last week's Pipeline, we'd written on how it might have been interesting to have one of the industry's many optical experts comment on "when, where and how this could happen." Since then, we've heard back from the futurist Carroll and checked in with one of those experts. "The slowing of light is nothing new," Carroll wrote, referring to New York Times article from last November that cited Harvard researchers who in 1999 who were able to slow light drastically and two years later were able to bring light to a stop. Of most interest to Carroll about this science project, which already was well under way six years ago, is its new scale. Whereas the Harvard researchers required a roomful of equipment, according to the Times, IBM scientists now have created a tiny silicon device to slow down light from its usual 186,000 miles per second to 600 miles per second--or to about 0.3 percent of ordinary light speed. "Heck, I could have a little light-stop-chip in my laptop some time in the future, plug into my optical-wall-plug, and access the yottabit universe," Carroll wrote. There's no quibbling with ability of a wide-ranging, connect-the-dots futurist such as Carroll in getting those (trade journalists included) who may be stuck in a particular niche to drop the blinders and look around, and ahead. His talk certainly was an effective way to jolt ET attendees into a forward- leaning frame of mind. New optical thinking For input from one of the industry's optical experts, we turned to OpVista CTO Dr. Winston Way, who noted up front how thinking about optical networking already is undergoing a shift. "Before, people only thought that you could manage packets, frames or bytes, but I think right now people have just started to think about the fact that light, or colors, can be managed also," Way said. One of OpVista's calling cards is its novel approach to reconfigurable optical add/drop multiplexers (ROADMs). As for not simply managing, but arresting lightwaves, Way said: "I think that is really out-of-the-box thinking. It's interesting. Slow it down so you can see what's inside, then let it go again." Way said this project reminded him of work done at AT&T Bell Labs in the late 1980s and early 1990s on optical signal processing, which sidestepped the physical limitations of the electronics domain. "I'm not sure it's practical today," he said. What Carroll was talking about, of course, was not today but tomorrow, or rather the day or year (or decade?) after. "I don't make my stuff up," Carroll wrote. "The future surrounds us, is being developed all around us and all the (technologies) that people work on eventually come into our lives. I just think...that it is going to come into our lives quicker than we might think." Are you watching the major transformations, or just the piddly stuff?
I spoke in November in Iowa to a group of energy cooperatives, providing some different insight into the future of energy supply in terms of not what's happening today, but in terms of "what comes later" -- say, five, ten or fifteen years out. Likewise, I'll be speaking to the Healthcare Industry Distributors Association at the end of the month. Many of the folks in the room will be focused on the short term trends that surround them; they won't be thinking about the massive transformation that is really going to impact their industry over the longer term. I take my time looking for the “big transformations” – the sweeping, massive, significant types of change that causes everyone to sit back twenty years later and ask, “Wow! Where did that come from?” And in the world of health care and energy, that involves phrases such "preventative medince" and "bio-refineries:" that's where you'll really find the future. Consider, for example, the world of health care and life sciences. Certainly everyone is aware that current trends indicate that the challenges are vast and the opportunities are significant. There’s a looming shortage of skilled workers, dramatic rates of discovery of new knowledge, the rapid emergence of new medical methodologies, and other forms of significant change. And yet, with everyone focused on these issues, most people are missing the big, long range transformation that is underway: we are in the midst of a fundamental and significant shift in healthcare philosophy and medical research that makes every other trend within this industry pale in comparison. We’re rapidly moving from a world in which we “react” to disease and illness after it has happened, to one in which we will be doing far more in advance to “prevent” specific health care problems from occurring in the first place. The driver for this massive change is the emergence of extremely specialized and highly personalized medical treatments based upon your own particular DNA. Preventative medicine has already become a part of the health care system: for example, a simple pap smear test has resulted in a 70% reduction in the date rate from this disease. Yet, it is estimated that clinical diagnostic spending of this type makes up only 1% of global health expenditures. DNA “sequencing” is set to change that, as it allows researchers to examine an individuals DNA, and determine their risk for developing particular diseases or medical problems. Already, a test has been developed that examines a few hundred strands of DNA, from which a prediction can be made of your risk of developing cystic fibrosis. The test accurately identifies the unique DNA strand in 88% of Caucasian CF and 69% of African Americans. Expect the degree of accuracy to only continue to improve in coming years. That’s but one example of a “deep transformation change” that gets little attention. Consider another critical industry: energy supplies. In the last few years, we have certainly seen a lot of price volatility as a result of the unexpected, such as Hurricane Katrina, rapid new demand growth from Asia, and commodity market fluctuations often driven by speculation. One result of volatility has been a renewed interest in bio-fuels, and in particular, the opportunity that exists from the creation of ethanol from corn and other crops. Ethanol has grown quickly to become a rather significant industry; and yet, what we are seeing today involves only baby steps. The big transformation that is occurring involves a rapid changeover from “first stage” bio-energy companies to “second stage” bio-refinery companies. The first stage consists primarily of agricultural companies, using their insight into the science of agriculture to develop production systems that convert grain to ethanol. The second group are the big oil companies, who are bringing to the industry their insight into how to build big, production oriented, cracking and distillery methodologies to the world of ethanol. In doing so, they will be transforming a high velocity industry into an faster and more complex industry involving “bio-refineries.” The transition is both massive and seeping in scope. Royal Dutch Shell Europe, for example is involved with a “2nd generation” project that involves a capital investment of $2,000 per ton to construct, compared to $190 ton for a first generation bio-fuel plant. The switch to bio-refineries will be significant, with some estimates suggesting that the oil major will be able to grab upwards to 17% of the global biofuel market within a few short years. It’s by watching for and identifying such massive shifts : a switch from reactive to preventative medicine, or the emergence of a bio-refinery industry, that you can spot real areas for innovation and creativity. That’s why, when looking at the big picture, you should always step back and look for an even bigger picture. There were about 3,000 people in the room -- and my message was that within high-velocity sectors of the economy, there are unprecendented new opportunities and careers that are emerging. Not only that, but constant innovation is critical, simply in order to keep up! The velocity in the world of telecom is stunning. Just last week, I managed to upgrade myself to the new Blackberry Pearl. While everyone is ga-ga over the iPhone, one also has to look at the high velocity change occurring with other information devices. This new one replaced the other Blackberry I just received last April ... and there is such a difference in sophistication, I think my old Blackberry is now from the "olden days!" I quickly decided that I'd get a 2GB card for my new Pearl, so that I could load it up with tunes, and take it along with me instead of my iPod for some trips. (With 2GB, I can take about 500 songs.) The Pearl also supports video playback. I wondered if I could get my own video on it. After all, sometimes I'm stuck in an airport, and rather than watching the endlessly droning doom of CNN on airport monitors, it might be nice to zone out with my own stuff, without having to drag out my laptop. Looking at the Web site of my cellular provider, I didn't find much help, other than a message stating it couldn't "record video." However, I have long realized that in the high velocity economy, those who actually sell the product often know less about the product than their customers do. It wasn't surprising that they had no guidance. Yet, it took me a matter of moments to find a Web forum where folks had posted all the specifications for encoding video onto a Pearl. Minutes later, I was busy transferring a number of Daily Show with John Stewart episodes from my PC over to the Pearl. (I grab a bunch of TV for the road, on one of my home office PC's, using BeyondTV; it's like a TiVO for the PC.) What's the key point to all of this? It goes back to a point I raised in this blog earlier: Your Customers are High Velocity: Are You? In many markets, customers now know more about the product that the supplier does! That's another reason why innovation is critical: today, for the first time ever, you have to work hard to keep up with the furious pace at which your customers are evolving! "Flexibility defining careers, workplace"
The full article can be found here in Adobe Acrobat format. Some of my key observations, as quoted within the article: The article caught my comments on this particular trend: Over the weekend, I found that an interview I had with a newspaper reporter in Colorodo, on the future of skiing, has run in an article that has been carried throughout the US. There's a copy of the article, "Technology has transformed skiing, and there's more to come," at the San Jose Mercury News here, for example. The full article can be found here in Adobe Acrobat format. One of the key aspect is that merging of work and life. Notes the article: "Imagine a skier from 50 years ago surveying the scene in a modern lift line. What would he think of iPods wired into jackets? GPS wrist units? Cell phones with cameras? Digitally scanned lift tickets? Polarized contact lenses designed to cut snow glare? PDAs that allow skiers to check in at the office while they're on the lift? These innovations have shaped the sport and will continue to do so, believes Jim Carroll. Carroll, a noted futurist who lives outside Toronto, Canada, says the concept of a work/life balance is a major trend that will continue. He shares this story: "An engineering company was trying to hire this engineering student in British Columbia, near a bunch of (ski) resorts. He turned their offer down. They called him back and were mystified. He said, "You talk about your 9 to 5 culture; that would mess with my powder time." The way younger people define themselves has changed, Carroll says. "They don't tell you what they do for a living, but what they do." Talent, not money, is the new corporate battlefront
We are soon going to have the longest life-span economy that has ever existed. Preparing for that shift both culturally and organizationally will give companies a strong plan for dealing with the skills challenges of the future. That's but one trend I outline in my latest trends overview: "10 Unique Characteristics of 21st Century Skills." What people are witnessing right now in terms of the "skills crisis" is just the tip of the iceberg, and a key factor for future corporate success will come from how well the skills issue is managed. The war for talent in the 21st century is going multi-dimensional, because there are a variety of trends that are forever changing the nature, loyalty, accessibility, and half life of skills. A big part of the battle will involve "human capital agility": the ability to deploy the right skills at the right time for the right purpose -- regardless of where the skill might be required, or where the skill is sourced. As skills become more specialized, everyone will find that they need to draw upon an increasingly global talent base, a reality that will demand new forms of collaboration, rapid human capital and project management skills, and deep insight into the effective utilization of those skills. That's why skills management strategies that focus on agility, insight, and execution will be critical. I have a number of keynotes focusing on the issue of global skills, notably one high profile presentation in Grand Cayman in two weeks. More to come..... Access the Critical Trends: 10 Unique Characteristics of 21st Century Skills here Why high-velocity makes innovation THE word for 2007 ....
Here's a reality that you need to think about: 2007 is the year in which most every organization and individual will begin to focus all their energies on innovation. As someone who spends a lot of time helping some of the world's largest organizations adapt to and understand the new high-velocity economy, I've long realized that there are big, creative-stumbling-blocks that have restricted the type of thinking that is necessary to "doing-things-differently." Yet, I am encountering a new group of leaders who know that the emergence of the high-velocity economy means that they must have a a team that can constantly adapt and evolve, coming up with a regular stream of new ideas on how to better run the business, grow the business and transform the business. There are several reasons why innovation will be the word, and the primary area of focus for every business, throughout 2007: People have come to realize that being innovative is just plain fun. That fact, more than anything else, signals that innovation is the word of 2007. 2007 and beyond: Understanding the velocity of change
It's that time of year when everyone is taking stock of the future -- what's going to happen in 2007? What trends will we see? What big changes will occur? I'm not thinking much of 2007 -- I'm thinking about 2010, and 2015, and beyond. And one thing I do know is that things will be very, very different that far out. One of the best ways to get a sense of this velocity is by doing a "10 Things Test." Sit in a room, whether you are at work, home, in a factory, retail store or wherever you might be, and take a look around. Compile a list of ten items that you see, and then sit back and ask yourself: "how might these change in the next decade?" By doing so, you can spot opportunities for innovation: areas where you can apply your creative thinking to do new things; opportunities where you might invest; career paths that you might choose to follow. I sat this morning in my home office, and here is what I saw: Why Santa rocks at innovation!
None other than the jolly old fellow himself! Santa is an innovation master. Analyze his leadership style, and his operational insight, motivational style, approach to creativity, forward thinking orientation, or any other management trait, and he has it nailed. Here's what we can learn from Santa Claus. Generational change and the future of health care
At 6:45am this morning, I went down to the home office, and e-mailed my eye doctor asking what I should do. At 6:47AM, he emailed me back with a few suggestions, and advised me to come in at 9:30am. Talk about customer service! My eye-doc is a bit younger than me -- and he's grown up with technology. In terms of his medical practive, he has always been at the leading edge of the curve in terms of adoption of new equipment and technology. He has had quite a consultative approach with me through the years, taking a cumulative series of hi-resolution digital pictures of my retina for example, in order to be able to show me the slow and steady (and normal) impact of aging. (And, in effect, helping me get over the fact that I increasingly need to use reading glasses.) So it is with his rapid response on e-mail; he commented in our exchange this morning that "instead of a Blackberry, I use an ultraportable Thinkpad. Wireless at home, wireless at work, wireless at Starbucks -- the 3 places where I live 95% of my life. :)" As a medical professional, he's wired up, interactive, and providing a different type of medical service. To him, interactivity with the patient is a good thing, and all part of the service. That's innovation right there. The 21st century medical professional is: As the Gen-Connect generation -- the ultimately wired crowd -- gets involved in health care delivery, we are going to witness a massive and significant transformation of the system. And that can only be a good thing! Read Future Medicine: Prescriptions for 21st Century Health Care EyeDoc: Port Credit Optometrists and Dr. Peter Rozanec Brand confusion in the global world
I've got the same interesting challenge, but from a very different perspective. The "other Jim Carroll" is an extremely well known poet, Pulitzer Prize winner, author of the Basketball Diaries (which became a Hollywood movie, with Jim Carroll played by Leonardo DiCaprio of Titanic fame), and leader of the 80's punk group, The Jim Carroll Band (best known for the hit, "Those are People Who Died.") There are many people on the Web who are looking for that Jim Carroll - he has an enormous global popularity, as seen by his Wikipedia entry. I'm often told stories by people as to how they've found him when they are looking for me. Most often, this has been after a keynote somewhere or other; they've heard the name Jim Carroll and go off and do a Google search. We both show up, of course. When they do their search, end up finding him, and kind of wonder about the poet aspect.....that's why I've long had this page that links to the "other Jim Carroll," in order to ease the brand confusion. It certainly makes for interesting conversations! Business models and complexity partners
In this clip from a presentation to a cable conference, I'm talking about the new corporate model of the future -- one increasingly based on "complexity partnerships." Is your brand from the olden days?
"A brand today can go from hero to zero in a matter of months...." That's an important question in this world of instant obsolescence. I often tell the story on stage of how my sons -- now 11 and 13 -- perceive many of the things which were once a part of my life as being from the "olden days." We've actually come up with a pretty long list; just the other day, when looking at a Web site, my youngest asked me with all innocence, "what's a cassette player?" Sony once had a really cool brand name, and the Walkman had deep, deep brand value. Yet Sony seemed to lose its innovative spirit, and started going wrong in a big way. It ended up destroying a good chunk of the brand value behind the Sony name -- when I think of Sony now, I think of a company that is slow, behind the times, ponderous. Which begs the question : are you operating with enough agility and rapidity in order to ensure that your own brand doesn't become a "brand from the olden days?" The rate at which the Sony brand lost its value is nothing short of stunning -- and was due to a series of well known missteps (among others): Are you making similar mistakes that is costing you brand image? You certainly are, if: The bottom line? "We need to shake ourselves out of any complacency that we can continue doing tomorrow what we did today." That's why innovation is critical : organizations today are in a situation in which everything around them is fluid, constantly changing and evolving. Permanence has been torn asunder. It is only by focusing on continual, rapid change that an organization can adapt to today's new global realities. The new face of manufacturing : agility, insight and execution...
There was quite a bit of information to share with them. In the last few years, I have hosted a dozen or more sessions on behalf of the global computer giant SAP. I've interviewed the CFOs and CIO's of a wide range of major manufacturing companies such as Purdue Pharma, Hunt Oil, J Crew, Fossil Watches, Lennox Furnaces, Endo Pharmaceuticals, Adaptec and more. I've studied and analyzed what it is that these companies are doing to ensure that they can thrive in a world of rapidly changing markets. Several key themes have emerged. The latter group are the innovators; the former group will do everything they can do dismiss the idea of doing anything differently. (They use the "innovation killer phrases" which I often use on stage.....) I just grabbed a quick video clip from a talk I did for the Cedar Rapids, Iowa Chamber of Commerce earlier this fall (which drew a standing room only crowd of 800 people), in which I'm talking about the attitudes of farmers towards the future. I spent a bit of time talking about the 10 Big Trends for Agriculture, and put into perspective that we really need to focus on the opportunity of the upside. It might be worth a watch, because it really puts these two camps into perspective. Take a look at it here What do you do after the world gets flat? Put a ripple in it!
"When we have this global competition where everyone is competing on price, the only way out of that hell is to up the value of your brand" -- Jim Carroll, Snowboard Trade Magazine, November 2006 "Entities are engaged in survival tactics because they don't know what to do next" -- Jim Carroll I think a lot of it is generational; many fellow boomers -- skiers, mostly, with the odd exception -- will ask me, when we're going up a ski lift, what I do for a living. If I'm on a lift with a boarder, though, they tend to ask a different question: "What do you like to do?" That's a great mindset to have, and I think displays an enthusiasm for opportunity. When it comes to innovation, I think a lot of people don't know how to innovate because they don't know what to do next. Why? They've spent all their time thinking about cost, and have forgotten about all the other stuff they could be doing! What they don't know is what to do next -- what do you do after the world is flat? And what does this have to do with snowboarding and skiing? Snowboard Trade News has just run an article, "Globalization: Snowboard Nation", looking at the question, "Does it matter where in the world a brand makes its products?" I'm quoted in the article, as seen to the right. The magazine also ran my "10 Big Trends That Will Rock Your World" list, which is as relevant today as the day I wrote it a few years ago. When I was interviewed, I stressed the point that it can't be all about cost. After reading the article this week, and while preparing for the groups that I'm keynoting in the weeks to come, I've realized that once people get the 'flat' part of this new economy, they are quite mystified as to 'what comes next?' And that is where they are missing the point on what innovation is all about. If your world has become flat, and you don't know what to do next, then put a ripple in it! Change it! Do something different. It's not just cost that is important -- there's lots more..... That's what innovation is all about -- taking inertia and turning it into velocity. Given that, this list seems to make sense: How to put a ripple in your flat world The future of sporting goods in a world of high velocity....
Take a look at the comments I made back in July about the essence of my keynote tonight. When it comes to the future of sporting goods, it's all being the fact that the future is being redefined by the next generation. As I observe: "...these kids live, breathe, learn, teach, talk, listen, create and innovate through a widely networked world that facilitates feedback so quickly it's rapidly changing how this generation will expect results and satisfaction from new products." That's the focus of my talk tonight for several hundred CEO's, senior executives and others involved in the global sporting industry. Here are some of the key points I will be making: Your customers are high-velocity? Are you?
Does your organization have the right stuff to deal with todays' information-empowered, globally collaborative, we-know-better-than-you-do customer? Maybe not. Imagine that you roll out a new piece of software that was supposed to make things better for your customers. Imagine that it doesn't do that -- worse yet, a feature that existed for your best customers has now disappeared. Even worse -- those very same customers now have to pay a fee to do what they could previously do for free. In other words, imagine that you've broken a customer-system, and you are now penalizing those customers for your mistake. Imagine this : you've tried to make things better, and you've only made them worse. Does this happen in the real world? Alarmingly, often. I'm going through this exact type of experience right now with a billion-dollar company that I deal with regularly. Out of respect -- since I think their CEO is a smart guy -- I won't name names. I will, however, offer up my advice on how to respect, not mistreat, your customers. If you are implementing any type of customer oriented system or inititiave, understand these truths: In today's hyper-competitive environment, your customer relationship can be fleeting at best. They often know more about your market than your staff does. Act accordingly, or you look like a fool -- and you end up losing customer loyalty. "....the concept of nine-to-five will have just absolutely disappeared...."
Business Edge magazine is now running a "20 questions" interview with me in which I'm talking about a variety of stuff. Inevitably, talk turned to the next generation, the workplace, and the change occurring with careers. This is a topic that I've frequently been talking about on stage, under the title, "Hyper-boomers, Gen-Connect and Manure Managers: How the Heck Do We Manage the Workplace Challenges of the Future?" The interview highlights some of my thoughts on what is happening with the future of the workplace. You can read the full interview here. Those are just of the few trends I've been covering in some recent health care keynotes, both within the health care, medical, pharmaceutical and insurance industries. I find that a lot of people simply don't understand the massive depth of change that is set to sweep the industry; people are focused on the current big issues (and there are big issues); but they aren't really thinking just how far more challenging things are set to become. The health care sector desperately needs some creative thinking as to where we are headed, and this page of trends that I've compiled tries to help that process along by stirring up imaginations as to what comes next in the world of health care. Here's a neat trick -- go dig out your old marketing textbook, and look at the chapter on product lifecycles. Sit back and think about just how ridiculously old-fashioned such a concept is. There are no product lifecycles -- there is just 'agility in time to market.' Do you have that? Maybe not. That's why I've come to use the word "velocity" to put this into perspective. When thinking about innovation and the future, and your ability to stay ahead of the innovation curve when it comes to what you do, and how you do it, ask yourself these questions: Next big home entertainment trend? Dive-in Movies!
With the early sunset, it is time for another 'dive-in movie!" -- a unique outdoor experience I've been doing with my family through the summer. I've got an old set of Logitech 5.1 surround sound speakers strung around the pool with a subwoofer; we place a projection screen on the deck, and hang a big sheet on the patio. Start the DVD, jump in the pool, grab a floaty thing, and we're off to the movies! In my "It's In To Be Out!" outdoor trends overview, I suggested that "Gen-Y takes tech outside : The “Nintendo Generation” redefines their outdoor environment through a wide variety of new hi-tech devices that enhance the outdoor experience." That' precisely what we seem to be doing here. I think the entire concept of the outdoors is set to be transformed as people re-engineer the outside world with the technology and tools that are becoming a part of their daily lives. From iPods in the planters to Wi-Fi to the garden shed, there's a lot of unique technologies that are set to emerge. I've alerted/warned the neighbors about the movie. They are very nice and tolerant of the volume, and me. 10 Unique Characteristics of 21st Century Skills
That's a big issue, but that's not the big issue. If an organization is to survive the high-velocity economy, it needs to be doing a lot of innovation with the 10 Unique Characteristics of 21st Century Skills: Some months back, in an entry I wrote a blog entry on the concept of "21st century capital". One item I included was the concept of capital including a "strong skills accessibility capability", noting that "talent, not money, will be the new corporate battlefront .... " That's an important battle, and it's going to require a lot of innovation and creativity in terms of solutions. 10 major health care / pharmaceutical trends
I'll be walking through these issues, and will then lead a workshop focused on the question: how do we ensure we have the agility, insight and execution in order to survive and thrive in this period of rapid change?
This type of research is real, and when we look back from 2019 or 2020, we'll realize that this was the type of transformative thinking that would help to bring about a solution to a pretty big problem. And it's important to realize that there's a lot of activity going on in this particular field. Notes one key researcher from Intel, speaking about the research they are doing in this area:
“We have the potential to aim our innovation engine at the age wave challenge and change the way we do health care from a crisis- driven, assembly-line, hospital approach to a personal-driven approach, with people taking care of themselves with help from family, friends and technologies.“
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"In some ways, brands are like people. They get stuck. They have habits that are hard to break. They don't always see their blind spots, and they lost touch with their core essence. They resist change. They become irrelevant"
Innovative organizations realize that they need to continuously address the issue of the relevance of their brands, and must work harder than before to keep them "fresh."
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I've just returned from delivering the opening keynote for the 14th Annual Portfolio Management for New Products & Services Conference in Fort Lauderdale, an event sponsored by the Product Development and Management Association.
The audience at the conference was representative of a broad swathe of Fortune 500 companies. I think my overview might have freaked them out to a degree: but we can't deny the reality of this fast-paced shift in the source of innovation. My advise was to accept the transition, and begin to shift how you think about the source of new insight, and begin to adjust your corporate planning accordingly.
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A reporter called yesterday, wanting to speak about the "Obama economy." One of the questions: "what will really happen with the potential economic stimulus package?" Here's how I took on the question:
All in all, my view is that beyond a 3 to 6 month horizon, we start to see and realize areas of economic growth. I wrote about this in my "Where's the Growth" trends perspective last year; I still cannot argue with any of the trends identified in that document.
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Last November, I released my "What Comes Next" trends perspective, outlining some of the significant trends that I believed would have the most impact in our longer term future. It's still worth a read, and I don't think the economic turmoil has changed anything written there.
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A few weeks ago, I keynoted an event for the Readers Digest Food & Entertainment group (who publish Everyday with Rachel Ray, and own and manage the popular online social network recipe site, AllRecipes.com) in New York City. The audience consisted of executives and creative types from Madison Ave advertising agencies, food and packaging companies and other organizations.
This new shopper is not only more scattered and more connected, but also faster -- scanning 12 feet of shelf space on average per second.
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You and I know that the headline on the left is going to run in newspapers and mainstream media one day. The BIG question is when.
I dunno, I'm hugely optimistic. How about you?
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I'm often providing detailed strategic guidance to senior executives and leaders on trends and the future, and certainly the economy has become a big part of what I address today. Much of time is spent putting into perspective the fact that we've always had downturns; there's still plenty of growth opportunities out there; innovation is even more critical now to ensure that you're ready to go as the economy starts firing on both cylinders again (which it will.)
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I'm off to keynote Tourism Alberta -- and will speak to some 200+ tourism marketing professionals on trends within the sector.
My key message? As a tourism marketing professional, you must keep ahead of these trends....build your experiential capital by working with new methods of reaching the market ..... understand that the market is becoming faster, more global, and more challenging.
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It's been announced that I will be a keynote speaker at the World HealthCare Innovation & Technology Conference, to be held in Washington, DC in December. In particular, I'll be taking a look at the importance of one of the most significant trends that is just starting to unfold.
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Whether I've got an audience of 3,000 people in Vegas, or a small CEO-level meeting of 20 people, I always open with the same observation. It's from an Australian study which concluded that 65% of the kids in pre-school today will work in jobs or careers that do not yet exist.
That's a starting point. See your own new careers emerging? Let me know!
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My "infrastructure is the new plastic" post drew attention; at a keynote last week, I was asked, "what other areas are seeing the emergence of the 'next plastic?'" (It's a play on the theme in the sixties movie, The Graduate, when the kids dads friend mentioned "plastics" as being the industry of the future.)
Dig beneath any of these trends, and you'll find the birth of billion dollar industries, the emergence of new careers, and all kinds of opportunity!
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In a keynote to a health care industry conference last week, I emphasized that in the high velocity economy, new business models, products, markets, and careers are appearing at a fast and furious pace. And it's by watching for, observing, and understanding these trends that you'll discover opportunity for innovation.
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In my "Where's the growth?" trends overview written a few months back, I noted that one of the key drivers for growth into the future will come from the massive spending to occur on infrastructure -- globally. One estimate suggests global spending will go from $750 billion to $1 trillion in a few years. I think we'll see more.
One really interesting aspect of all this is that anything that goes with infrastructure spending is set for a rocket ride. Think intelligent project management, global collaboration capabilities, and resource/skills scalability: these will be the defining success factors for anyone working in this global marketplace.
Who wins? Construction companies, specialized skills, economic regions that decide to invest -- and most important, firms that have a deep, scalable global talent pool.
The reality of future trends: grab the What Comes Next trends overview
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Gloom has set in on global markets. Volatility rages. Some organizations have gone into a mode of "aggressive indecision," deferring action while they try to figure out "what comes next." A pretty lousy strategy that is doomed to fail in the longer term.
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Even as news and financial pundits endlessly debate the question, let's face reality: the US economy is in a recession.
One of my first comments for this audience of senior executives? We need to think about the sub-prime mess in the context of a longer term view. In the last ten years, we've been through many economic challenges:
Sub-prime is a big issue, but it's just another blip in the grand scheme of the churning engine that is the global economy. Through the next ten years, we'll see a few other economic challenges along the way; various regional economies and sectors will be impacted; yet innovation will abound. That's why I've also indicated that a key leadership mantra for the high velocity economy is this: "volatility is the new normal." That's a topic I covered in a recent economic interview.
I tend to be an optimist: that's because I think in a longer term perspective. Think about it: over the next 10 years, there are several certainties:
The reality of future trends: grab the What Comes Next trends overview
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Career issues are hot! And one of my favorite ways to open a keynote or executive session is by quoting from an Australian study, which indicated that sixty-five percent of the kids who are in preschool today will work in jobs or careers that don't yet exist.
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One of my latest columns focuses on what will likely be the corporate issue of 2008 - managing generational challenges in the workplace.
Related postings:
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As we end the year and start a new one, it's a good time to be thinking about some of the trends and issues which will impact us in the future.
It's an Adobe Acrobat document; feel free to grab it, share it, and distribute it!
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MSN Sympatico, in partnership with Cisco, has launched a new business portal in which I'm featured.
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Can you innovate across the generations? If you can't -- then you've got a big problem to fix!
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I was the opening keynote speaker yesterday in Dallas for a get-together of the Strategic Marketplace Initiative. This is a group that represents a variety of health care providers and hospitals, as well as pharmaceutical companies and other health care suppliers. There were some heavy hitters in the room -- even WalMart was there, which is indicative of the role it is seeking to carve out in the pharmaceutical side of things.
At the same time, the health care system must innovate at a furious pace to keep up with the trends that are set to impact it in a significant way, such as:
The sad thing is that little of the political debate occurring in the US on how to fix the system has to do with the real trends which are occuring; it tends to focus only on the difficult and challenging issue of insurance and coverage.
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I was in Colorado Springs yesterday, as the opening keynote of the Leadership Institute for Directors for FCCServices -- they're the business services arm of the US federal Farm Credit System."If I were a tort lawyer, I'd be licking my lips in anticipation of the opportunities to come in the next few years."
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The nice thing about being a futurist is that you're right -- much of the time!"Given rapid science, hyper-innovation, low cost offshore production, and the slow response of other traditional business models ... every industry today is ripe for massive disruption and the rapid emergence of new competitors. A big part of the equation is avoiding 'legacy costs' both in manufacturing as well as sales and support. Think FedEx, not car dealerships. Think smart engine modules that pop in and out, not auto mechanics. Think WalMart, not ReadyLube. It's all there, and someone just has to pull it together.
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I'm off today for a full day of filming for a small business portal that will be hosted on the site of MSN Sympatico, a major Canadian ISP, in partnership with Cisco.
Watch this space, and I'll post a link when the first video/ article goes live, possibly within the next two weeks.
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Earlier this year, I wrote the Foreword for the book, The Rise of the Project Workforce: Managing People and Projects in a Flat World.
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Take a look at this kid.
The whole issue is massive, and is one of the areas in which innovative thinking is needed now. It's a CEO / Board level issue. It's transformative. It's urgent.
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Back in May, I keynoted the World Congress on Quality / American Society for Quality, a fairly massive conference with about 3,000 attendees.
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Some weeks back, I spent a full day with about 40 senior lawyers with a major government agency, with the main focus both on the rapidity of change of legal skills, as well as rapid change with legal issues.
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The view of the future by most is often short term oriented.
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In the last year, I have been the keynote speaker for three different conferences of funeral and crematorium directors.
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I'm keynoting the annual IHRIM (International Human Resource Information Management) professional association in about an hour here in Houston, TX; I'll have an audience of about 1,000 or so.
My key point for the audience: When we are thinking about deployment of skills , we must be thinking about:
These are issues I've covered extensively in my analysis, Critical Trends: 10 Unique Characteristics of 21st Century Skills here
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It's been a busy week, with keynotes for the American Community Bankers Association and the National Home Furnishings Association. This gave me an audience of several hundred CEO's and senior marketing/sales VP's of some pretty big organizations.
My advice to them for the short term? I suggested to both audiences:
I think the feeling of being overwhelmed is a common one. Based on the comments post-keynote last night, I think I hit the right mark with the observations, and the guidance.
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The level of hype right now with "social networking" and technology is getting a bit out of hand. It's a little bit like 1999 all over again! While what's happening right now is important, it's more fun to think about some of the things that are happening on a 15-20 year horizon. Big change is everywhere, and most people miss the big transformations while they are underway. Here's my list of some of the trends we should really be watching.
These are all things I've written about on this blog over time. The trends are all quite simple to understand, surround us today, and are breathtaking in scope.
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In my keynotes, I often talk about how the rate of change -- whether with business models, product lifecycles, skills and knowledge -- is speeding up. With such change, there's a lot of uncertainty within many industries as to what to do next: a senior executive of one client commented to me from his perspective, "....entities are engaged in survival tactics because they don't know what to do next ...."
The future is going to hit you whether you like it or not; it's your approach to it, and how you innovate with it, that defines your future success.
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Back in October 2005, I identified the major trends that would sweep the retail and consumer products industries, and some of the key innovation methods that organizations should pursue in order to avoid product and service commoditization. You can read the original post here.
In a follow article that I wrote for the conference, which will come out in June, I summarized my guidance to the audience: "Get on board the tornado of change in retail and ride it for all it is worth! You should develop a team that has a finely-tuned radar for unique trends, experiments, success stories and innovations. They're swirling around you continuously, they are constantly reinventing the world of retail on a minute by minute basis - and you've got to understand them and capitalize upon them."
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Back to work, and I'm off to San Antonio, Texas, to keynote the Property and Casualty Insurers Association of America Joint Underwriting/Marketing conference.In today's high velocity economy, it's all about rapid time to market balanced by appropriate underwriting caution. The insurance industry today is immersed in a period of unprecedented, relentless change; impacted by hyper-innovation, fast-paced technological evolution, the rapid emergence of new forms of risk, and increasing business market turmoil. Permanence has been torn asunder, as customers and business organizations empower themselves with information, and as underwriting decisions become ever more complex. In an era such as this, every insurance organization needs to ensure that they are are focused on the concepts of "agility, insight and execution." The way to the future is clear: it's no longer about simple risk management: it's about having the flexibilty to adapt to rapidly changing circumstances; the insight to spot emerging new forms of before they impact the bottom line; and operational excellence in deployment of new insurance products based on sound, reliable underwriting. Join international futurist, trends and innovation expert Jim Carroll, as he shares his insight into the how organizations are focused on management strategies that focus on agility, insight, and execution.
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"I recently spoke to a group of CEOs of some of the world’s largest sporting goods manufacturers and challenged them to think 20 years down the road. I suggested they imagine a baseball bat — would it still be a simple, shaped piece of wood?
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I spoke last week at a senior level banking conference; in attendance were C and VP level executives from such major banks as JPMorgan Chase, Merrill Lynch, Harris NA, Wells Fargo, RBC, HSBC Bank USA, MasterCard Worldwide, Bank of America, Citibank, and SunTrust Bank. The conference, sponsored by global banking research firm Barlow Associates, was built around the broad theme of "Just in time business banking," and focused on trends and innovation within the corporate banking sector.
Will they even “do” banks, or is their banking future around PayPal?
This event comes on the heels of my recent talk in the Cayman Islands, on the broad theme of globalization of the financial services industry. You can read more about that event here.
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Though I spend my time travelling the world with my innovation message, it's nice to find some recognition at home. I've been living in Ontario, Canada, for the last 22 years, a region that has long been an economic powerhouse.
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Last week, there was a common theme to my keynotes for the University of Oklahoma and for the national Blue Cross Blue Shield Association : "what's happening with our workforce?"
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Yesterday I spoke to the staff and faculty of the University of Oklahoma College of Continuing Education / College of Liberal Studies.
There's more to be found in my list of "10 big trends for educators," and many of my assumptions as to where we are going in the world of education is based upon my listing of "10 Unique Characteristics of 21st Century Skills."
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Well, for one thing, when light stops, velocity picks up!
24 January 2006
CT's Pipeline
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That's the problem that people usually have when they try to figure out the future. They tend to focus on the the small, incidental, day-to-day, one-to-two-to-five year trends that they can see around them.That's one of the trends I've covered in my FUTURE MEDICINE Prescriptions for 21st Century Healthcare trends summary.
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I gave the opening keynote this week, in Orlando, for BICSI, a telecommunications trade group; these are folks primarily involved in the implementation of sophisticated corporate, institutional and backbone infrastructure networks.
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An article on my perspectives on the future of the career has run in a wide variety of papers across the country.
The latter point links to the trend I've identified of the emergence of complexity partners, brand new careers (or entire organizations) which simply involve the management of complexity. [ watch the video ]
All of these observations tie into my Trends Analysis, "10 Unique Characteristics of 21st Century Skills," posted a few weeks back, and also available here. There are massive changes underway within the global workforce, which makes talent, not money, the new corporate battlefront.
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Right straight from 85F+ temperatures on the beach in Grand Cayman, to 0F on the shores of Georgian Bay -- it was time to get back on the ski hills!
Carroll sees a ski area in the future "with a lot more people hanging out at the hill with a little portable office, doing their thing."
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Here's a trend to think about : Companies will soon be accessing needed skills from all generations: from bright, knowledge aggressive 15 year olds to active 80 year olds.
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The most important thing? People are discovering that if you focus on innovation, you can break away from the dull, restrictive, boring routine activities that shackle you to the past. Instead, by focusing your energies on ideas, creativity, challenging the status quo, constantly seekling how you can do things better, grow things, or transform things, you ended up having a lot more fun -- and see a lot more benefits.
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The best way to understand the future is to understand the velocity of the future -- that is, the rate of change that is occuring. The key point is that we'e now in an extremely high velocity world, as the rate of change is speeding up to an unprecedented degree.
Is all of this science fiction? It might seem like it, but most, if not all of the scenarios above are entirely plausible, based on science, technology and trends that exist today.
The challenge in thinking about the future is that it can be difficult to comprehend the sheer velocity by which trends are occurring. That's why the "10 Things Test" can be such a valuable method of putting into perspective the velocity of change.
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It's likely a good time to put into perspective the critical lessons we can learn from someone who is a true master of leadership, insight, creativity and innovation.
I dunno about you, but I'm inspired by the fellow!
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I woke up this morning with a pretty big sty on my eye; I could feel it coming on last night. Big, puffy, and sore : I couldn't get my contact lenses in, which is kind of a drag since I do a talk for SAP today (Theme: Velocity, Agility, Complexity and Flexibility: The Four Key Drivers for Competitive Advantage: more on that to come.)
I wrote about this trend with my Future Medicine: Prescriptions for 21st Century Health Care overview, noting that one of the 10 biggest trends to impact health care in the future will be the impact of such interactivity on medical delivery: " The entire medical system is set to be transformed with the entrance of GenConnect (those born after 1990) into the health care system. As they take on careers as medical professionals and administrators, they will bring with them a flood of new ideas, innovation and different ways of thinking. Health care institutions currently clogged with organizational sclerosis cannot keep pace with today's demands. But GenConnect's aggressive attitude towards change will quickly break down this sclerosis."
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One fascinating aspect of the new world in which we find ourselves is that some companies have found that globalization has meant some very unique "brand management" challenges, as their brand or company names runs up against long-standing brand or companies from elsewhere in the world.
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With the lifespan of knowledge collapsing, furious rates of scientific advance, and rapid new discoveries, no one company can do everything.
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As the news media gears up for the release of the Sony Playstation 3, one wonders whether they are capturing an increasingly important aspect of the story: has Sony managed to keep any of the brand luster that it once had, or is already irretrievably lost?
A brand today can go from hero to zero in a matter of months. How do you avoid such a fate?
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At the Swiss Innovation Forum in Zurich, I took a look at the real impact of globalization -- the new consumer, market commoditization, rapid emergence of new business models, shortened product lifecycles.....
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Yesterday I gave the opening keynote for the annual manufacturers meeting of the Hearth, Patio and Barbecue Association. Most of the folks in attendance were CEO's and senior management with a wide variety of companies, and they were keen for insight into what they should be doing beyond knowing that the world is flat.
All of the CFO's and CIO's and senior management teams at the companies I've studied have concentrated their efforts on three key words: agility, insight and execution. Pretty cool stuff!
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There are two types of people in the world -- those who view the future with fear, worry and concern -- and the rest of the people who look at the future as an opportunity.
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When I started skiing 7 years ago, I marveled at the different attitudes between skiers and snowboarders. 
In the next few weeks, I'll be keynoting several events with folks who have been hammered pretty hard by the China/offshoring trend. They know they have to operate differently, and that they need to focus on becoming a low cost operator.
Going flat is probably the first -- and baby step -- in adjusting the realities of your structure and innovation culture for the future.
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I'm off today to give the dinner keynote for the Sporting Goods Manucturers Association Sports and Technology Convergence Conference in San Diego.
It's going to be a great dinner, and a lot of fun!!!!
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Imagine that you are a big company.
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At this point, I've been working at home for close to eighteen years. When you've been doing it that long, and you've built up a thriving global business, you gain some real insight into how the economy is shifting. Not only that, but you have a remarkable relationship with your family, with some unique visits into the home office through the years.
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Get ready for bio-connectivity, skills wars, knowledge obsolesence and bio-informatics, not to forget healthcare stores.
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Lots of people don't understand the massive rate of change which is occurring within every industry, profession, business model and product / service models.
I've been hearing quite a few clients raising these issues in some of my workshops lately; clearly, velocity is the big word right now.
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We're still having a bit of a stretch of warm weather, and tonight promises to be great.
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There's been a lot of talk about the skills crisis lately. Most of it is focused on the wrong thing -- people seem most worried by the fact that a lot of baby boomers are set to retire, and are taking their skills out of the economy.
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I'm off to do a half day session with a major player in the pharmaceutical industry; I've compiled a list of the 10 key pharmaceutical / health care trends that they should be thinking about.