Economic panic? 7 Things to Do Right Now As the Upturn Begins!
I'm often providing detailed strategic guidance to senior executives and leaders on trends and the future, and certainly the economy has become a big part of what I address today. Much of time is spent putting into perspective the fact that we've always had downturns; there's still plenty of growth opportunities out there; innovation is even more critical now to ensure that you're ready to go as the economy starts firing on both cylinders again (which it will.)
What has become evident is that the most pressing issue for leaders today is focus. While volatility rocks global markets, there continue to be fundamental truths: your industry, products, competition, skills requirements, organizational capabilities, and ability to respond to rapid change will define your future success.
Here's my advice on what you should be doing right now to ensure that you are ready for what comes next, based, in part, on a blog entry I wrote last April!
- think growth: It's all too easy right now to lose your enthusiasm and sense of purpose. When economies contract, so too does your motivation. Don't let that happen -- now is the worst time to lose sight of the future! Think opportunity: study my "Where's the Growth" document, and think about what it implies
- check your speed: it's the high velocity economy. Markets, brands, products, industries, competition, and globalization are changing faster than ever before. Make sure you've got a team that can operate at the pace of change. Agility is the key word. Search this blog for insight on that!
- immerse in ideas. The global idea-cycle is collapsing. New ideas are launched, analyzed, and developed to concrete product at a speed that is astonishing. Rapid product change is the new norm: I'm dealing with the CEO of one organization that is involved in a rapidly emerging, multi-billion dollar market that will appear, go super-nova, and disapper, over the course of about 18-24 months, before it is superseded by the next generation of product. That's fast, and that's the new reality.
- check your bench strength. After the cutting begins, value goes out the door. Yet your abililty to access ever more scarce, specialized skills will define your future success. It's your ability to establish a fast, agile, quick-to-assembe collaborative team that will define your ability to grab all the opportunity that is emerging out there.
- assess your threats. where could emerging technologies, fast science, radical business models, new industry dynamics, new regulatory macroeconomic, political or social trends impact your bottom line in a way that you hadn't thought of before? Two years ago, China and quality wasn't an issue.
- invest in experience. Experiential capital -- the depth of capability that you have from exploring, taking risks, trying things out -- is the financial capital. It's a precious resource, and might be in short supply if you aren't working to build it up.
- set the tone. If you let the current economic headlines drive your corporate spirit, you're sunk. You have to keep people focused on the future -- otherwise, your team will smell your fear. Leadership is all about keeping your team focused on opportunity and goals, not on ongoing and regular ("new normal" volatility.
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Reaching the new travel consumer
I'm off to keynote Tourism Alberta -- and will speak to some 200+ tourism marketing professionals on trends within the sector.
Alberta, located in Canada, has an extremely hot economy -- globally, it stands as the home of the 2nd largest provable oil reserves in the world, just after Saudi Arabia. Most of this is tied up in the 'tar sands,' which costs quite a bit more than traditional oil reserves to bring to market. Hence,there is a flood of infrastructure investment and other spending going on.
Needless to say, even thought it's a hot economy, the economic 'correction' (and certainly volatility in the price of oil), as well as other issues, is providing for a bit of a challenge in the tourism sector.
What am I doing at the conference? Notes the brochure: " Jim will speak to the fact that travel product innovations occur today at such a pace that simply keeping up can be a challenge. A furious pace of technological innovation continues unabated, with the rapid emergence of new technologies that change the way the travel consumer plans theirtravels. The Web continues to make massive inroads into tourism planning and business model change. It's a fast paced world -- and that's whyleading edge organizations are focused on staying ahead of the trends that are impacting the high-velocity economy of today. Join international futurist, trends and innovation expert Jim Carroll as he puts into perspective how the world of tourism is changing -- and how organizations are innovating in order to keep up with it!"
What I am talking about? Quite a few trends:
- the new tourist is faster: 1/3 of all leisure travel is now last minute, and the average time for planning a trip is down to 15 days
- the new tourist is connected: 86% of all North American's now travel with a cell phone. They have expectations of finding data-heavy local tourism portals when they walk off a cruise ship looking for something to do.
- the new tourist is influenced differently: 79% of travelers trust reviews by other tourists over advertisements. Social network tourism sites and stalwarts like TripAdvisor continue to have the biggest impact on tourism decisions.
- the new tourism family is no longer nuclear: A grab bag of observations ... only 1 in 4 of the population live in heterosexual, two-parent families .... .one in three people now live alone ......urban Americans remain single for more than half of their adult lives, a radical shift...
- the new tourism product is faster to market: WhereI'veBeen started as a Facebook application that allowed people to post where they've travelled to. It exploded to 2 million users in a matter of weeks.
- the new tourism product is being rapidly redefined: Online tourist mashups that allow people to combine online maps with travel schedules, destination information, and social networks are redefining the concept of trip planning.
- the new tourism marketing is viral: Budget Rent A Car, Southwest Airlines and Sheraton Hotels are examples of 3 companies that are using blogs and Internet video to establish leading edge marketing campaigns.
- the new tourist is, well, different a grab bag of trends: we're seeing a lot more shorter term "pressure relievers," themed holidays, adventure, health or well-being vacations, "authenticity" as a new trend, and the "unplugged" vacation. Not to mention an "old" trend from 2007 which involves "debaucherism" as the new travel trend.
Bottom line -- innovate!
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A truly staggering, transformative trend yet to unfold
It's been announced that I will be a keynote speaker at the World HealthCare Innovation & Technology Conference, to be held in Washington, DC in December. In particular, I'll be taking a look at the importance of one of the most significant trends that is just starting to unfold.
Twenty years from now, most people will look back and realize that right about now, we had three huge, transformative trends underway: device connectivity, geo-connectivity, and bio-connectivity
Essentially, everything around is about to become linked in -- every device that surrounds your life. My home thermostat is linked to the Internet, and that has changed the scope of how I interact with energy.
Layered on top of device connectivity is spatial intelligence for each device -- vis-a-vis Google Maps types of applications. Think about new forms of energy management built upon sophisticated geographic mapping applications.
Add to this the fact that this type of technology will migrate to devices that will help us better manage complex health circumstances.
I've been writing and speaking about the idea of bio-connectivity and the concept of "hyper-connectivity" for over a decade (before Nortel lamely built a lame marketing campaign around the latter phrase a year ago.) It remains one of the most significant trends that will yet unfold in the health care sector. Our concept of health care delivery will be forever transformed.
Simply put, link the scope of the looming health care crisis to the momentum that will come from Silicon Valley for medical device connectivity, and there are some pretty powerful things happening. Think about what happens as spatial device connectivity comes to everyday things around you -- such as a baseball bat! Read more below. There's a lot going on in this space, and you'd do well to understand it.
Opportunity through the next decade is going to be found by those who will adjust and adapt buisness models, attitudues, structures, methodologies and capabilities to this new reality.
More information:
- HealthCare Innovation & Technology Conference
- Read about what happens When Thermostats get connected
- Read the article about bio-connectivity, The Doctor is in around the clock
- Read the article Minds of their own
- Read "Bioconnectivity and the rapid emergence of new markets"
- Read the article Command and Control - Opportunity Awaits Companies that Master Hyperconnectivity
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Computational analytics is another new plastic!
At my keynote to the US Association of Actuaries this week, and for a keynote to LOMA last week (an insurance association conference), I played a series of maps that showed the rapid emergence of obesity in the US population from 1995 to the present day, The maps were provided by the Insurance Information Institute.
I challenged the audience to think about what will happen through the next five years: we will see the emergence of "location intelligence dashboards" that will allow such professionals, to examine in real time, the emergence of new risk factors in their industry.
Location intelligence is coming about as organizations learn to link massive stores of information and research to spatial -- or map oriented (i.e. Google Maps) information. An entire new profession is emerging at the same time -- location intelligence professionals.
This is part of an overall sweeping trend, in which computational analytics play a massive role in the emergence of new careers, businesses and industries. We are entering a time that involves the rapid processing of massive stores of information and unique new ways of analyzing information.I talk about this extensively in my future oriented keynotes and is a topic that is covered in several trends documents on my site.
More information
- Read about "location intelligence" in Five More Trends To Define Your Future
- Analytics is hot : "What comes next?"
- Insurance Information Institute report 0- Obesity, Liability, and Insurance
- Directions Magazine - The Worldwide Source for Geospatial Technology
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"65% of the kids in preschool today will work in jobs or careers that don't yet exist"
Whether I've got an audience of 3,000 people in Vegas, or a small CEO-level meeting of 20 people, I always open with the same observation. It's from an Australian study which concluded that 65% of the kids in pre-school today will work in jobs or careers that do not yet exist.
I then challenge people to think through the global trends at work which are making such a bold statement into a reality. And I often walk through the types of new careers that are emerging in every industry to emphasize the point.
So what are a few of these new professions? There are dozens: here's five to start your day thinking about:
- knowledge farmers: exponential knowledge growth, in part driven by social networking, is leading to information overload everywhere. KF's are the uber-editors who immerse themselves in global data-feeds, extracting relevant knowledge and insight from data-torrents. They're the new editors, and its their ability to apply their insight to knowledge-rivers that will place them in high demand.
- location intelligence professionals: see my earlier post on this. I've been talking about this for years. These are the folks who are linking GoogleMap type data to existing business process and services, and who are building entire new global infrastructure on spatial information. This one is going to be huge!
- mash managers: as innovation moves from the core to the masses, creative insight is emerging from those who learn how to take multiple new ideas, and input them into the innovation process. These people synthesize ideas from multiple sources, study markets, interpret insight, and decide how to re-evolve a product, service, brand, marketing campaign, or just about anything else. Their focus in "constant innovation," and it's their idea-immersive environment that drives them forward.
- tactical controllers : in this wildly information-chaotic world, some people are busy searching for the next big thing. A new and very real profession emerges with those who step beyond the "minutiae-of-the-moment" and instead focus on providing tactical, strategic guidance on what-to-do-in-the-next-moments ... they are the PR expert who knows how to steer the company through a global viral idea meltdown; the brand expert who knows how to re-energize a brand next week; the individual who studies what the global knowledge farmers are revealing, and who understands what to do next as a result.
- analytical architects: the world's big problems are being solved by those who are learning to throw sophisticated solutions at complex problems. These are the folks who will architect the smart-highway infrastructure; load-balanced two-way energy grids; just-next-week manufacturing processes for the era of the customization of one. They've combined an education in combinatory theory with big server farms to generate the new smart-infrastructure that is set to envelop us.
That's a starting point. See your own new careers emerging? Let me know!
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Five more trends to define your future
My "infrastructure is the new plastic" post drew attention; at a keynote last week, I was asked, "what other areas are seeing the emergence of the 'next plastic?'" (It's a play on the theme in the sixties movie, The Graduate, when the kids dads friend mentioned "plastics" as being the industry of the future.)
- Analytics. The future is owned by the math geeks. We're entering an era in which extremely intelligent people who know a lot about how to throw a bunch of computers at a complex problem in order to come up with interesting solutions. Here's an example: backyard energy. Lots of people would like to do their part in helping the environment by having their own back yard solar or wind power station. The problem is that most of the North American electric grid wasn't designed for two way transmission -- meaning that you can't pump your excess energy back into the grid. Yet, some smart math dude will come along and come up with a fascinating new load-balancing technology, based on sophisticated mathematics and massive amounts of computer processing power, to solve the problem. There are going to a be a lot of unique solutions, and hence, unique industries that are set to unfold.
- Location-intelligence. Think about the transformative change that can occur when you link the type of information found in GoogleMaps to existing corporate data. In the insurance industry, individuals are looking at how they can link existing insurance policy information to spatial (i.e. geographic) oriented information, in order to come up new forms of assessing, understanding and underwriting insurance risk.
- Pervasive connectivity. Everything around you is about to become "plugged-in", and life is about to get really strange. One day you'll get up, and your weigh scale will send an e-mail to your fridge. Just kidding, but consider this reality: many of the things that we use in an industrial, commercial or residential setting are about to undergo three distinct transitions. They are gaining intelligence; and at the same time, we are seeing the emergence of information that advises us as to their location, and their status. Think about what happens when you bring home a box of popcorn, and it interacts with your microwave, linking into a centralized database to determine the best cooking duration for your particular microwave brand.
- Hyper-innovation. China is rapidly transitioning from the "made" phase to the "created" stage. Think "Designed in China" as the next big wave that will lead to rapid product innovation. Half the population in China is under the age of 25. They're collaborative, highly educated, and eager to continue the transition into the wealth that comes with being a member of the Chinese middle class. They're about to innovate like crazy, and will soon be flooding our stores with all kinds of innovative consumer products, not to mention stuff for the industrial, health care, packaging and just about every other industry out there. Someone is going to import, support, sell and install this stuff.
- Skills specialization. The future of every career is either extremely specialized, or massively general. Most professions are fragmenting into dozens, if not hundreds or thousands of specialities. Someone needs to understand all this, and help organizations tap into narrow bands of knowledge. In the health care industry, we are seeing the emergence of "hospitalists" : medical professionals who now fulfill the role of steering a patient through the ever increasing complexity that is the world of medical care today. The field is expected to swell from about 15,000 today, to 120,000 within a decade. The rise of similar "uber-generalists" is expected in most other industries as well.
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Bio-connectivity and the rapid emergence of new markets
In a keynote to a health care industry conference last week, I emphasized that in the high velocity economy, new business models, products, markets, and careers are appearing at a fast and furious pace. And it's by watching for, observing, and understanding these trends that you'll discover opportunity for innovation.
Consider the rapid emergence of new markets. As new scientific discoveries occur at an ever more rapid pace -- due to the massive global collaboration with Web 2.0 as well as new information research sharing paradigms within established peer review based research methodologies -- there are countless new products and markets that are being brought to life.
Take that reality, and apply it to any industry. Say, health care. Then parse that industry down into dozens or hundreds of sub-markets, and you'll discover forthcoming new, billion dollar markets.
Consider, for example, the concept of bioconnectivity, which will be one of the most significant trends -- and new markets -- to play out in the next twenty years in the health care industry. What is it? Quite simply, the marriage of the computer chip and connectivity technology to medical devices, and ultimately, to people.
One small submarket that will come with bio-connectivity is the emergence of smart, intelligent, home-based medical devices. Have you ever seen a Sharper Image catalogue, or its online Web site? It's the ultimate source for unique gadgets and toys of every type. Think about what the catalog might look like in 10 years, when its full of home-based bioconnectivity devices aimed at the baby boomer set.
Digital Connect Magazine, which monitors development with home and business connectivity devices, suggests that U.S. revenue from digital-home health services will quadruple to exceed $2.1 billion by 2010.
The two fastest growing areas? "Wellness monitoring services" and "e-health services" will each achieve a compound annual growth rate of more than 50 per cent. The former allows doctors to remotely monitor a patient's condition (such as their insulin levels), while the latter provides active medical care (such as an intelligent sub-dermal medicine patch, which not only provides a patient automatic ingestion of a particular pharmaceutical, but allows the doctor to monitor its effect.)
It might sound like science fiction, but it is a very real development. Sit back and think about the business models and opportunities that flow from such a transformative trend. Link it to another trend: a whole bunch of baby boomers are getting older, sicker, and the health care system is breaking down. Hospitals will go virtual, extending their services through bio-connectivity, so that non-critical care boomers can be treated and monitored at home. This is slam-dunk obvious!
It's BIG TREND. Its' but one of many.
Simply put, our new reality is that science, and hence markets, industries, products and services, are evolving and changing at a rate never seen before.
And that's where your own opportunity for innovation comes from!
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Infrastructure is the new plastic
In my "Where's the growth?" trends overview written a few months back, I noted that one of the key drivers for growth into the future will come from the massive spending to occur on infrastructure -- globally. One estimate suggests global spending will go from $750 billion to $1 trillion in a few years. I think we'll see more.
This morning, I caught wind of a blog entry that commented on the general crankiness of American's towards their "crumbling infrastructure." For example, Thomas Friedman commented in a New York Times article this week: "A few weeks ago, my wife and I flew from New York’s Kennedy Airport to Singapore. In J.F.K.’s waiting lounge we could barely find a place to sit. Eighteen hours later, we landed at Singapore’s ultramodern airport, with free Internet portals and children’s play zones throughout. We felt, as we have before, like we had just flown from the Flintstones to the Jetsons.
It's the rapid ramp-up in sentiments like this that drive the reality that infrastructure is the new plastic. It's one aspect of the global economy where spending is going to increase at a furious pace.
Consider the trends that are coming together that provide for this simple reality:
- spending on infrastructure through what has been fondly known as the "first world" will increase, by virtue of the simple reality that much of what is there is crumbling and creaky. After 50 or 75 or 100 or 150 years or so, stuff simply breaks down, and needs to be replaced.
- spending on infrastructure throughout Asia and the Pacific region will continue to ramp up as society moves up the rung of personal wealth
- sophisticated solutions to challenging problems -- think energy, and spending on solar / wind / tidal solutions -- will drive ever more complex infrastructure projects, and hence, more infrastructure spending. Simply put, there will be lots more options of where to spend money as new ideas come to market.
- global competition simply means that economic regions will have to boost their infrastructure -- simply to stay as a global competitor. It's a matter of economic pride -- and necessity.
One really interesting aspect of all this is that anything that goes with infrastructure spending is set for a rocket ride. Think intelligent project management, global collaboration capabilities, and resource/skills scalability: these will be the defining success factors for anyone working in this global marketplace.
Who wins? Construction companies, specialized skills, economic regions that decide to invest -- and most important, firms that have a deep, scalable global talent pool.
And perhaps one of the biggest, yet unforeseen markets, will have to do with "intelligent infrastructure." Think thermostats!
More information:
- Read Where's the growth : global innovation opportunities for the long termThe reality of future trends: grab the What Comes Next trends overview
- Intelligent infrastructure: When thermostats get connected
- Read my Credit Suisse interview for my thoughts on "growth"
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Gloom has set in on global markets. Volatility rages. Some organizations have gone into a mode of "aggressive indecision," deferring action while they try to figure out "what comes next." A pretty lousy strategy that is doomed to fail in the longer term.
Future oriented leaders understand the reality of growth. They know that we live in a time in which opportunities for growth abound. They've aligned the mission of the organization so that they are capitalizing on real opportunity, not short term economic challenges.
Growth is everywhere.
It's easy during a time of economic volatility to lose sight of where the global economy is really headed. Yet while stock markets might rock, innovation thrives.
New ideas continue to be explored, markets grow, and industries emerge. A variety of trends indicate that opportunities for growth continue to surround us.
Read this document to get in the right frame of mind for the future.....and think growth. Think opportunity. Innovate for future, don't stagnate with the past.
Download Where's the Growth? Global Innovation Opportunities for the Long Term
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Leading in turbulent times: how to innovate during the recession!
Even as news and financial pundits endlessly debate the question, let's face reality: the US economy is in a recession.
Given this reality, the key question going forward is: what do you do now to ensure that you remain innovative, competitive, and forward-oriented?
Innovate for the upturn! That's the key message I focused on with my clients in 2002-3, and the same message holds true today. And that was the focus of a keynote last week when I spoke to one of the largest US commercial / industrial real estate brokerage groups. There were several bits of insight I shared with them:
Put sub-prime into perspective
One of my first comments for this audience of senior executives? We need to think about the sub-prime mess in the context of a longer term view. In the last ten years, we've been through many economic challenges:
- the 1998 Asian currency collapse
- the 2000 dot.com meltdown
- the 2001 global telecom restructuring
- from 2001 to 2003, the impact of 9-11 and economic uncertainty
- 2007 to 2008, the march to $100 oil
- and now sub-prime....
Keep focused on the longer term view
I tend to be an optimist: that's because I think in a longer term perspective. Think about it: over the next 10 years, there are several certainties:
- scientific discovery will continue to advance at an ever increasing pace, opening new markets, evolving existing markets, and establishing countless new opportunities
- global collaborative knowledge communities will continue to lead to faster innovation in every industry and market
- new products, methodologies, skills, ideas, organizational structures will continue to evolve at a fast pace; agile organizations will continue to come out on top
- the transition of economies in the Mid-East and Asia will continue despite regional economic challenges
- rapidly aging economies in North America and Europe will drive rapid spending, innovation and knowledge discovery in the world of health care
- global energy conciousness will continue to lead to ever more rapid evolution of "green" solutions
- 1/2 of the global population is under the age of 25. They're change aggressive, and will continue to lead to the rapid adoption of new ideas.
- growth in markets is a simple reality: in agriculture, global food production still has to double in the next 25 years to keep up with population trends. Sub-prime has no impact on this reality.
Don't let aggressive indecision take over your thinking
To innovate in the upturn, don't let a short-term vs long-term trend disconnect take over your strategic thinking. Already, I can see the signs of some companies heading into an innovation rut, their staff and executives encumbered by a dangerous state of complacency, while other companies innovate, change, and adapt to the "new normal" that is now our reality.
In the last recession, "aggressive indecision" became a driving cultural and leadership trait. Organizations that fell into this funk fell behind. Innovative companies didn't permit that to happen then, and you shouldn't let this happen now.
More information:
- Read Global Economic Trends: An Interview with Jim Carroll The reality of future trends: grab the What Comes Next trends overview
- Read my 2003 article about "aggressive indecision"
- Read my Credit Suisse interview for my thoughts on "growth"
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Future careers: Knowledge explosion is key
Career issues are hot! And one of my favorite ways to open a keynote or executive session is by quoting from an Australian study, which indicated that sixty-five percent of the kids who are in preschool today will work in jobs or careers that don't yet exist.
I passionately believe this to be true: and I've seen the trend occurring in countless professions and industries.
This week, I keynoted a Career Day event at Capitol One in Richmond, Virginia ; the focus was upon the rapid emergence of new careers, and the rapid evolution of existing skills. My message, in looking at the future career opportunities, was that there's nothing but upside, as long as people keep reinventing their skill set.
The topic of the future of careers is a big one these days; I'm being called into many organizations and events to talk about the issue, particularly in the context of recent economic trends. Some of these events have been local economic development conferences. In one talk in January, I spoke to an audience of executives and educators in an auto-sector city ; a group of people caught up in the throes of economic restructuring and turmoil.
Talk about an audience in the midst of challenge! Yet when you are in that type of economic bubble, it can be hard to see the future career opportunities that do exist. That's why I didn't focus on the short term economic turmoil, but instead, on the real, practical trends that are defining the careers of tomorrow.
Many sectors of the global economy: and in particular, the manufacturing and financial sectors, are being hit hardest by the US recession, the sub-prime meltdown, and global competition.
The auto-town event got covered in the local paper: and the story ended up being reprinted throughout the Canadian press, including in Vancouver, Calgary, Ottawa and Montreal. One of the key observations I made in the article: "We have to figure out how we can continue to move up the knowledge ladder because there's going to be a massive shortfall in specialized skills because of the rapid growth of knowledge."
That's an important issue to think about, and the article is well worth a read.
More information:
- Read Knowledge Explosion Key to the Future
- Read Global Economic Trends: An Interview with Jim Carroll
- The reality of future trends: grab the What Comes Next trends overview
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"Here we are now, entertain us" - Decoding Gen-Connect
One of my latest columns focuses on what will likely be the corporate issue of 2008 - managing generational challenges in the workplace.
In the column, "Here we are now, entertain us," I take a look at the unique attitudes that Gen-Connect is now starting to bring in to the workplace. There are several key observations from the article that are critical to understanding the future of the workforce:
- What is clear is that we are witnessing the death of the long-term career and corporate loyalty, which will soon be but a quaint memory from the previous century.
- I often tell the story of a young engineering graduate who turned down a job with an architectural firm because its 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. work hours conflicted with the time he expected to be carving arcs into deep powder in the mountains. It’s a real attitude, and it’s already happening around us. The challenge, when such trends are so patently obvious, is trying to figure out what to do about it. And a good part of the solution will come through the transformation of rewards and remuneration.
- Gen-connect has very little patience, particularly when it comes to being rewarded for good work or significant effort. These youngsters are used to instant rewards: their Xbox/Wii video-game-oriented world has them accomplishing a goal, moving up a level, and earning some points or other valuable form of currency that helps them accumulate additional armour, weapons or whatever else is needed to accomplish the game’s next challenge.
- That’s why, at a recent conference, I framed the issue of rewards transformation to an audience of financial professionals this way: “Organizations that can attract, engage, retain and amuse an increasingly complex workforce will be the ones who find success in the rapidly evolving global economy.”
- Put the emphasis on the word amuse. Today’s Gen Y doesn’t, and tomorrow’s Gen-connect certainly won’t, have any patience whatsoever for slow and steady career paths.
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What Comes Next? An Outlook into 2008 and Beyond
As we end the year and start a new one, it's a good time to be thinking about some of the trends and issues which will impact us in the future.
Take a look at my newly released quick-report, What Comes Next: A Trends Perspective for 2008 and Beyond.
My message for my clients throughout the year - whether it was 2,000 executives at the World Congress for Quality, or the senior management team of one of the largest commercial construction companies in the US -- was consistent. The high-velocity economy demands that we think, react, plan and manage differently.
Some of the guidance I shared with global clients concerning future trends is found in the report; I highlight what I think are some of the most important ones that we need to be thinking about, broadly defined as:
- revenge of the math geeks
- small is the new R&D
- attitude and amusement is the new motivation
- time disappears
- resistance to change retires
- careers end
- knowledge & skills banks dominate
- interactivity redefines markets
I prepared the document on a MacBook Pro -- I made the switch from Windows this year! -- using the TokyoRPG Style Template for iWork 2007 Pages from KeynotePro. They have awesome styles for Pages and Keynote; if you're an OS/X and iWork user, take a look.
- Grab the What Comes Next PDF now
- Learn more about iWork Themes from KeynotePro
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When thermostats get connected .....
MSN Sympatico, in partnership with Cisco, has launched a new business portal in which I'm featured.
I'll be offering up my thoughts, in the form of articles and video clips, issues related to innovation, trends and the future.
In this first video clip, I talk about the unique world of massive connectivity -- a world where I can actually link from my cell phone into a cottage thermostat. One of my latest columns also focused on the continued trend to a digitized home -- in Home, Smart Home, I take a look at some of the emerging technologies.
That future exists today : simply look to Proliphix. Plain old furnace thermostats -- except with a LAN connection built in. You can access your furnace thermostat from anywhere via your Web browser, and so you can control the heat in a cottage or other remote location. And since Proliphix has also released an API, you can write a little bit of code to access and control it through your cell phone.
This is game changing stuff -- in that a simple connected device will change careers, industries, design, construction. There's also a huge impact on energy efficiency with this type of stuff; remote control and management at the residential level will will a lot of innovative, green solutions towards energy consumption.
I will be keynoting the Plumbing-Heating-Contracting-Cooling Association's annual Construction Contractors' Alliance Meeting in Dallas, Texas in February 2008, taking a look at some key trends occurring in the construction industry. This type of connected device, set to become a part of our digital lives, will certainly be part of the discussion.
Related postings:
- Watch the video clip
- Article - Home, smart home
- Proliphix web enabled thermostats
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Making generations work - Cardboard people and plasma people
Can you innovate across the generations? If you can't -- then you've got a big problem to fix!
I do a tremendous number of keynotes that focus on the issue of "managing millenials," and the complexities of change occurring in the workplace. See, for example, my blog post, "Don't Mess with my Powder, Dude." (below)
Yet organizations need to move beyond the staffing issues that come with new generations: they must also ensure that they can innovate at the rapid rates demanded in our new world, and they need to do that by keeping up with the new ideas and innovations occuring with younger staff.
In this video clip, I take a look at the story of the "plasma people" and the "carboard people." Innovation occurs when different generations -- with different attitudes to change -- can cooperate and see eye to eye, and take advantage of different strengths. In this clip, I tell tjhe story where this clearly wasn't the case!
This is a video clip from a recent keynote that I gave for hundreds of executives from the grocery and consumer products industries, titled Faster is the New Fast: Innovating for the New. High Velocity Customer . This story also became the opening chapter in my book, Ready, Set, Done: How to Innovate When Faster is the New Fast.
Watch the video clip
Related postings:
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Health care trends and innovation
I was the opening keynote speaker yesterday in Dallas for a get-together of the Strategic Marketplace Initiative. This is a group that represents a variety of health care providers and hospitals, as well as pharmaceutical companies and other health care suppliers. There were some heavy hitters in the room -- even WalMart was there, which is indicative of the role it is seeking to carve out in the pharmaceutical side of things.
The group is devoted to trying to continue to improve the efficiency and quality of the supply-chain within the health care industry. My talk examined the future of health care; I've done such talks recently for the Blue Cross Blue Shield National Office, the Association of Organ Procurement Organizations, Harvard Pilgrim Health Care, Providence Health Care and the American Society for Health Care Risk Management.
There are certainly some big challenges. Consider these realities:
- total health-care spending - by individuals, companies, the government - reached $2.3 trillion in 2005
- health care spending is set to double to 20% of GDP within the next 10 years
- 400,000 nurses are set to retire by 2010
- 76 million baby boomers will be flooding the system for care
- lifestyle diseases wlll continue to drive stress into the system
At the same time, the health care system must innovate at a furious pace to keep up with the trends that are set to impact it in a significant way, such as:
- the rapid emergence of new technologies
- massive skills challenges (both demographic and scientific!)
- new business models and “competition," particularly as retail concepts come to the industry, and "customer" expectations continue to increase
- combined with the rapid emergence of new knowledge, methodologies, treatments, pharma, driven by rapid science
The sad thing is that little of the political debate occurring in the US on how to fix the system has to do with the real trends which are occuring; it tends to focus only on the difficult and challenging issue of insurance and coverage.
My talk stirred a lot of debate, and was very well received. There's an overview of some of the trends that I covered in my FUTURE MEDICINE Prescriptions for 21st Century Healthcare trends summary.
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Future trend - The Future of Governance
I was in Colorado Springs yesterday, as the opening keynote of the Leadership Institute for Directors for FCCServices -- they're the business services arm of the US federal Farm Credit System.
In attendance were members of the Boards of Directors for a wide variety of state and community farm credit co-ops; these folks are the backbone of the US farm lending infrastructure. The Directors are local farmers, community leaders and business executives, and hence, need to be aware of the trends impacting the local and global agricultural industries, so that they can plan accordingly, assess risk, and make sound business decisions with respect to their co-ops.
My keynote took a look at "what comes next in the agricultural sector" - it's one of many talks I do within the industry. And agriculture is certainly subject to high velocity change: there's rapid evolution in science (bio-crops); new markets (bio-fuel) ; rapidly changing skills; new direct to consumer market opportunities; globalization (current food production must double in the next 30 years to keep up with global population growth.) All of which could spell opportunity if approached correctly -- or turmoil and challenge if ignored.
The intent of the talk -- and the overall theme of the leadership conference -- was to ensure that these folks have the insight to direct their organizations into the future. That's an important and critical role for Boards; and FCC Services is an example of an organization that has made sure that the "future" is closely linked to the issue of "governance."
I think there are too many organizations that don't do this. Sadly, with all the current focus on "compliance," I've come to believe that there is a critical lack of future planning on many other corporate boards around the world. The result is that potential risks are often ignored; then things go wrong; then the company gets sued for significant sums of money. Is this Board negligence? That's an interesting question, isn't it!
Here's an example: years ago, I wrote an article indicating that one of the critical CEO/Board level issues that must be addressed had to do with network security; certainly, everyone knows that organizations should properly secure their information assets. Yet in the article, I suggested that I believe that many Boards aren't dealing with the issue, and that it was an area ripe for future exposure, noting that:
"If I were a tort lawyer, I'd be licking my lips in anticipation of the opportunities to come in the next few years."
Boards and CEO's should ensure -- as they are required to do with financial controls -- that the information assets of the organization are properly locked down. They must understand obvious future trends, and ensure that management has planned accordingly. I strongly believe this to be the next wave in Board responsibility.
Do many Boards of Directors ensure that the organization is properly preparing for the rapidity of trends? Not many. Witness the shenanigans with the TJX Group, which had its corporate network hacked and millions of credit card numbers stolen. (The company runs HomeGoods, Marshalls, A.J. Wright, Bob's Stores and The Maxx stores; in Canada the chain consists of Winners and HomeSense.) Now comes news that a group of banks want to sue the company with respect to the issue.
I can only imagine the questions that the Board of TJX is now asking!
Currently, much of the focus of board governance has to do with "compliance" -- how well are boards, and the companies they are responsible for, dealing with the new realities of the post-Enron era.
I believe that within the next decade, we will see Board responsbility quickly evolve into a new and much more complex era than simply making sure that "i's are dotted and the t's are crossed.' All we need are a few savvy lawyers to launch a few negligence suits against a few public companies, alleging that a Board failed to develop a plan for and respond to obvious future trends.
It's a trend worth watching.
More information
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The nice thing about being a futurist is that you're right -- much of the time!
Back in 2002 or 2003, I started talking about the concept of the GoogleCar while on stage; my theory was that we would see an organization like Google enter the automobile industry; they'd do this through the rapid assembly of disparate resources and partners, assembling the necessary expertise.
As I noted in a keynote in Tampa early in 2006:
"Given rapid science, hyper-innovation, low cost offshore production, and the slow response of other traditional business models ... every industry today is ripe for massive disruption and the rapid emergence of new competitors. A big part of the equation is avoiding 'legacy costs' both in manufacturing as well as sales and support. Think FedEx, not car dealerships. Think smart engine modules that pop in and out, not auto mechanics. Think WalMart, not ReadyLube. It's all there, and someone just has to pull it together.
Today, the leading paper covering Silicon Valley finally picked up on the idea in an article. And I can tell you -- traffic to my website is exploding today, because it seems everyone on the Web is searching for the concept of the GoogleCar.
More information
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10 Reasons why innovation matters for small business
I'm off today for a full day of filming for a small business portal that will be hosted on the site of MSN Sympatico, a major Canadian ISP, in partnership with Cisco.
The video clips filmed today will be augmented by a series of articles that focus on theme of "innovation for small/medium business" (often referred to as SME's!)
There are a number of reasons why there is unprecedented opportunity for innovation within the small / medium enterprise sector:
- the emergence of the contingent workforce: there has never been a better time for professionals and individuals with specialized knowledge to set up shop, and provide their services to a vast global client base.
- complexity drives partnership: as the high velocity economy evolves, organizations are finding an increased need for solutions to very complex problems; often, the only solution might be a very unique company or individual that is focused on that one particular issue.
- opportunity is endless: countless new markets, products, and new business models are merging on a continuous basis. Who will sell, support and service the new line of intelligent highway cones?
- flexibility is easy: one of the video clips will tell the story of a wood mouldings manufacturer I spent some time with; their innovation story, involving how they turned the tables on Home Depot through a logistics innovation, is truly inspiring. You don't have to be a big organization to succeed with innovation: you simply need an open mind and a will to change.
- lifestyle drives decisions: I bailed out of the corporate sector, and have been working out of a home office for 18 years. I have never regretted a moment, and now see a massive trend of people making the same lifestyle decision.
- rapid emergence of new markets: I identified the outdoor living room trend in 2003 -- and today, already, the outdoor living product market is now estimated at $15.7 billion, or 37% of total lawn and garden spending. There are a vast number of small and medium organizations who saw the trend unfold, and jumped in. Those types of rapid opportunities will continue to emerge in the future.
- lower cost to innovate: the cost of sophisticated technology continues to drop. SME's today can do things that were the domain of Fortune 500's five years ago; tomorrow, they'll be the most sophisticated operators on the planet, able to suddenly shift their skills and resources; marketing strategies and campaigns; operating methodology and structure. If they innovate correctly, they can do the things that big business does -- but do it better.
- new careers are emerging: think location intelligence professionals, hospitalists and manure managers (yes, seriously.) These are all some of the new careers unfolding before our very eyes: they've been covered in this blog, and are featured in the new book. Many new careers can emerge within the structure of the SME economy.
- it fits the fundamental transformation of business: there is a new workforce emerging, and SME's are a big part of it. There is plenty of opportunity for skills provision on a global basis as we transition from a 20th century organizational model to the flexible, adaptable, scalable structure of the 21st.
- the barriers to innovation are fewer: my experience has taught me that small and medium sized organizations have little of the "organizational sclerosis" that clogs up the structure of their larger, Fortune 5000 cousins. They can adapt and react quickly, and often don't get bogged down in the deadly process of killing innovation with attitudes such as, "you can't do that because we've always done it this way.
Watch this space, and I'll post a link when the first video/ article goes live, possibly within the next two weeks.
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New article: Don't mess with my powder, dude!
Earlier this year, I wrote the Foreword for the book, The Rise of the Project Workforce: Managing People and Projects in a Flat World.
It was titled, "Don't Mess with My Powder, Dude", and tells the unique attitude towards work and life of a snowboarder.
The foreword, now available online, puts in perspective the unique and often challenging workplace changes now underway, which are often driven by unique and different attitudes towards careers and work with the younger generation.
It's worth a read; you can grab a copy below. You might also want to look at Rudolf's book.
- read Don't Mess with My Powder, Dude!
- Book: The Rise of the Project Workforce
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Future trends - Of groundhogs, criminals and hackers
One of my recent, regular columns for a financial publication, managed to link together the issue of groundhogs (in my backyard), with the future of policing and financial crime.
The article relates my backyard war with a groundhog to what I refer to as an "anticipatory approach to those with a nefarious purpose."
I go on to note that "the issue of policing and law enforcement .....is much like battling a groundhog. The police deal with unique challenges that constantly change, whether fighting white-collar or street crime."
The future of policing? I comment that "through the next decade, police forces will start using sophisticated technologies such as clothing that will link to an in-car mapping system through a wireless network, allowing officers to perform a “hot-location” lookup of a colleague in the field during a ground operation. We’ll see today’s current generation of military hardware become a part of tomorrow’s crime-fighting infrastructure, such as unmanned aerial drones being used for highway surveillance to crack down on street racing. Police education will change as well, with a migration toward virtual reality training based on airline simulator models."
I don't know how I come up with this stuff, but the article has certainly generated a lot of welcome comment, some of it puzzled!
More information
- Read "Of groundhogs, criminals and hackers
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Major trend - the future of the organization
Take a look at this kid.
He's your next employee. How are you going to recruit, retain, manage, interest and amuse this fellow? What's your workforce going to look like in 2012, 2020, or beyond?
There's quite a bit of focus on trends relating to the future of the organization -- and organizations are seeing innovative strategies to cope with the world of high velocity change that we find ourselves in.
Last week I was the opening keynote speaker, and a panelist later in the day, for an offsite of one of the world's largest professional services firms. Tomorrow, I keynote a get-together of key clients of a multi-billion insurance/financial services company. A few months ago, I ran a Board of Directors/CEO level meeting on the issue for a major industrial company.
If you don't have this issue figured out yet, you'd better start thinking about it in a hurry.
There are certain things we know for a fact that relate to the future of the organization.
- there is a huge amount of expertise walking out of the economy. In 2010, 3 people will leave the economy for every person that enters it; by 2012, 4. By 2016, 6 people will leave for every new worker that joins. Those are staggering realities.
- the current generation entering the workforce is completely rejecting the concept of a traditional career. More than 50% of young people in a US survey indicated they believe self-employment to be more secure than a full time job. They don't want to work for big organizations. They'll be nomadic, contingent workers, entrepreneurial and global.
- skills are fragmenting and specializing at a furious pace. Knowledge half-lives in most industries are compressing to a matter of just a few years. Knowledge extinction is real, and massive skills fragmentation is occurring at an extreme velocity. The result is that most organizations will find future failure will come from an inability to get specialized skills. A strategy that is focused on global access to extremely specialized skills will be a transformative factor for winning.
More information
- What's Happening with Our Workforce: Achieving Competitive Advantage Through Skills
- Critical Trends: 10 Unique Characteristics of 21st Century Skills
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Quality, skills and the high-velocity economy
Back in May, I keynoted the World Congress on Quality / American Society for Quality, a fairly massive conference with about 3,000 attendees.
I focused, as I often do, on the need for rapid action in the high-velocity economy. At that time, just a few months ago, we had just seen the recall of various pet food products as a result of production quality issues at the Chinese manufacturer.
I noted -- and these words are verbatim from the tape - "What do we do with quality in terms of velocity?" I went on to note that with we might soon see the issue of quality and China merge together ... to such a degree that companies might have to scramble to deal with quality issues that were completely unexpected just a few months ago.
Fast forward, and we've got toy manufacturers testifying to Congress about quality concerns as a result of offshore production.
It used to be that when it came to quality, you'd plan --> execute -- > evaluate ---> innovate. But now, with high-velocity change, sudden new issues can appear, and you've simply got to execute before you plan.
What's the point? In my new book, Ready, Set, Done, I argue that talent and project agility -- that is, the ability to rapidly refocus your organization and team to deal with the rapid emergence of new issues -- will be a key cornerstone for future success.
This week, I'll be doing a keynote for Tenrox, a company that specializes in software that helps an organization with resource management and optimization: in other words, deploying the right skills at the right time for the right purpose. Exactly what I talk about in the new book.
The CEO, Rudolf Melik, has written a book, The Rise of the Project Workforce: Managing People and Projects in a Flat World. I contributed the foreword for the book, focusing on the theme of skills agility. It's an important issue that you need to be thinking about, particularly given the new urgency for planning on the fly.
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Innovation in the global energy industry
I spent a half day last week with the CEO and senior management team of a large global energy company.
They engaged me to provide them with insight on the trends which will impact the global oil, natural gas, energy and distribution sectors in the years to come.
It was a small, intimate get-together with about 40 senior executives; I provided my insight into the trends that I believe will have the most impact. That was followed by about an hour of very intense, deep probing discussion; I obviously stirred up some creative thinking within the group.
While not going into the specifics, the broad brush strokes of what I covered off included my observations that they should be thinking about these issues.
- presume massive market disruption: Think GoogleCar: don't limit your view of the future as to what might transpire. The future of any industry will likely bear no resemblance to the industry structure of today. Future competitors will probably come from completely outside of an existing industry. Challenge every assumption that you have about the future.
- prepare for significant transformation: realize that existing insurmountable challenges are simply a big opportunity to someone else. Someone, somewhere, is going to figure out how to plug hundreds of thousands if not millions of small, local, home based renewable energy sources into the energy grid. It's mostly a computation/mathematical issue: the energy grid was not designed for two way electricity transmission, and so there will have to be an intense amount of computational dynamics to structure a solution. Result? An organization that is a master of massive computational capabilities --- and hence, grid management -- might very well be the new energy company of the future.
- find opportunity in scientific rapidity: we're in the era of global collaborative knowledge generation, and R&D is rapidly externalizing. The infinite global idea loop means that scientific discovery is now happening faster than ever before, which provides for more product and market opportunity. Innovative organizations plug in, ensuring that all staff are in tune with the rapid rate of scientific advance that surrounds them, and are prepared to ride new emerging ideas as soon as they begin to emerge.
- capitalize on skills fragmentation: the war for talent will define future success. We're entering a time of massive skills specialization and ever smaller knowledge niches. As I covered off in my keynote to a global financial audience in the Cayman's, it's the organizations that can build a culture, structure and flexibility to attract and retain skills that will find the key to success in the high velocity economy.
- structure for volatility: extreme volatility is the 'new normal.' If you have the capability to quickly adjust strategy, structure, plans, skills, projects and teams, you've got the right stuff for the new world of constant change.
- prepare for business intensity: innovative organizations plan for more rapid entrance and exits from new markets. They do so through flexible structure. Partnership takes on new role in era of exponentiating, fast complexity and the rapid emergence of new opportunities: if you can scale up, you can win big.
The Economist Intelligence Unit recently noted that "the ability to swiftly adapt to change represents the greatest challenge manufacturers face in creating long-term value." That's the bottom line for innovating in the high velocity energy industry.
Related posts:
- The Google Car and massive market disruption
- Global infinite idea loop
- Talent, not money, is the new corporate battlefront
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The future of the legal profession
Some weeks back, I spent a full day with about 40 senior lawyers with a major government agency, with the main focus both on the rapidity of change of legal skills, as well as rapid change with legal issues.
We took a look at the future of the profession, and had a workshop that examined issues of agility, rapid response and complexity of skills.
I put together a summary, based on a previous post here, that outlines both the challenges and opportunities faced by the profession.
The highlights of the document, available as a PDF, takes a look at such issues as generational warfare, evidentiary challenges, rapid change and specialization, and risk minimization, to name but a few.
Of the latter, I write that "One side impact of generational warfare is that “going underground” will become more acceptable. In the last few years we saw a fascinating battle between music companies and Kazaa, the music sharing organization, which used extra-territorial jurisdictional issues to provide itself some shelter against legal action. That type of activity is going to become the norm, not the exception, in the future. Indeed, going legal-underground is about to go mainstream."
- read 10 Big Trends for the Legal Profession: High-Velocity Change Providing Challenges and Opportunities
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Trends and big transformative changes. Example: health care
The view of the future by most is often short term oriented.
In my keynotes, I often put into perspective the big, massive, sweeping transformations that can change entire industries over the longer term. That's one of the best ways to begin a process of thinking of innovation, and in finding creative solutions to challenges as well as opportunities. There's not enough long term thinking today; there is simply too much short term hype.
In this short video clip, I take a look at the world of health care, and the transformation that is occuring as we move to a world of personalized medicine.
- Watch the video
- read Future Medicine: Prescriptions for 21st Century Health Care
- read "Are you watching the major transformations, or just the piddly stuff?"
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In the last year, I have been the keynote speaker for three different conferences of funeral and crematorium directors.
As with any industry, I've focused on the wide variety of trends that will impact them -- and yes, I've provided them guidance on innovation and creativity. These folks are the "ultimate event planners" -- they are called upon to organize extremely complex affairs in a dramatically short time in very difficult circumstances. We could all learn from their resourcefulness.
One of the trends I've spoken to them about is what I'd come to call "the new mourning" -- that is, how the younger generation I call Gen-Connect has a different relationship with the process of mourning.
We've all seen it; 9/11, Virginia Tech and elsewhere -- spontaneous, large public gatherings, where people deal with an unforeseen tragedy by coming together. Technology -- cell phones, instant messaging, email -- results in an often instant and large-scale social means of dealing with tragedy.
It's one thing to talk about a trend; it's another thing when you witness it literally in your backyard. Ten days ago, a young rugby player died after an altercation near the end of the game -- at the high school that my home office looks onto. My son and I had been at the game just ten minutes prior. When we heard the sirens, we knew that something was not good.
Through the next six days, I came to witness firsthand the 'new mourning,' as his teammates, classmates, teachers, friends, neighbors and strangers gathered in various ways, at various times, spontaneously, instantly, silently. My son went to school with his younger brother; we visited the memorial that the kids assembled, several times.
Earlier this week, the kids at the school returned to the field, and played a game. The neighborhood has laughter, cheers, noise and happiness once again, but the neighborhood has also forever changed.
As someone who speaks on trends and the future, I do know this: the new mourning is very, very real, quite substantially different -- and is yet another example of how quickly our world around us is changing.
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Innovation and the new workforce
I'm keynoting the annual IHRIM (International Human Resource Information Management) professional association in about an hour here in Houston, TX; I'll have an audience of about 1,000 or so.
My talk today broadly revolves around the issue of "what's happening with our workforce." I'm taking the audience on a tour of the key drivers which impact organizations today, whether business or government,
- velocity: business is just plain fast, and our workforce must cope with that
- change capacity: there's a big disconnect in how quickly some people can deal with rapid change compared to others
- idea instantaneity: we're in a new world in which ideas or issues can quickly speed out of control, or work to our advantage
- knowledgeability: in which global insight is increasing at a furious pace, leading to ever larger pools of knowledge
- innovation opportunity: such rates of discovery lead to massive new opportunities with bringing new products and services to market
- idea discovery: our interconnected world now allows unique ideas to gain a global audience in a flash
- consumer spontaneity: the low attention span consumer is fleeting when it comes to loyalty to brand
- business intensity: operational excellence is the name of the game, given an economy which simply runs "fast"
- skills availability: all these trends that it is going to be more difficult to access skills
- Attracting the right skills ...... at the right time ... for the right purpose
- Providing for business flexibility in a time of rapid change
- Establishing a constantly shifting, evolving "workforce on demand"
- Enabling this with sophisticated tools, infrastructure and skills access capabilities - managed by folks such as the IHRIM
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Banking and furniture industries -- coping at high velocity!
It's been a busy week, with keynotes for the American Community Bankers Association and the National Home Furnishings Association. This gave me an audience of several hundred CEO's and senior marketing/sales VP's of some pretty big organizations.
And I can tell you this: the undercurrent of the mood within both conferences was one of being "overwhelmed" by high velocity change! New methods of marketing, a constantly higher bar of expectations from customers, a need for relentless customer oriented innovation to meet those expectations, an accelerated product innovation cycle with a need for a faster time to market. Web 2.0, collaborative networks, social networking, new media spending, YouTube, Google! What the heck does one do!?
The mindset of many senior executives today is "where do we start? My keynotes approached this by indicating the three organizational capabilities they must adjust for:
- velocity: they must evolve their organizations so that they can operate at the very fast pace that today's market demands
- instantaneity: they must be prepared for rapid shifts in market, style, demand, fashion, product, service, and just about everything else!
- short term spontaneity: the consumer has no attention span left; they must learn to market, support and sell to the “continuous partial attention customer."
My advice to them for the short term? I suggested to both audiences:
- focus on upside down innovation: turn existing innovation models around, by learning customer focused innovation. I've written about that on this blog before; it is a trend that is sweeping the world of retail, and is coming to impact financial services
- use the “new influencers” : some people are overwhelmed with product/service decision making : what should I get? What should I buy? They are increasingly turning to someone to help; in the case of furniture, parents seeking a home theater are turning to their kids for help! Re-steer your markeitng campaign to get the kids to get the parents in the door!
- develop knowledge agility: sales staff are overwhelmed too. Help them cope, by focusing on just-in-time knowledge on new products, services, campaigns and other customer focused efforts.
- focus on location-intelligence capabilities: online search increasingly drives customer decisions. It's become extremely narrow and specific in the last year: you need to boost your ability to make sure you show up with very specific location information.
- build your experiential capital: take risks. Make mistakes! Do things! Learn from it -- that's your experiential capital, and it is the most important asset in the high velocity economy! You can't just sit around and hope this rapid change will go away. It won't -- and it's going to get faster.
I think the feeling of being overwhelmed is a common one. Based on the comments post-keynote last night, I think I hit the right mark with the observations, and the guidance.
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10 Long Term Trends of Real Substance
The level of hype right now with "social networking" and technology is getting a bit out of hand. It's a little bit like 1999 all over again! While what's happening right now is important, it's more fun to think about some of the things that are happening on a 15-20 year horizon. Big change is everywhere, and most people miss the big transformations while they are underway. Here's my list of some of the trends we should really be watching.
- rapid movers start to predominate: some of today's XBox/Wii players are going to be CEO's of big companies within 15-20 years. The high-velocity economy is just starting to take off. Just wait until the Gen-Connect starts to run things.
- everything is gaining intelligence: chips and connectivity are immersing themselves into everday, ordinary things, and you likely aren't even noticing. Hyperconnectivity changes everything: bioconnectivity and device-intelligence are the things to watch.
- volatility is the new normal: increasing connectivity increases the likelihood of cascading failures. Risk management is becoming more important, and more complex. Fewer organizations pay serious attention to the complexity of risk, leading to greater potential for short, sharp economic shocks.
- boredom increasingly drives markets: people can't stop fidgeting with their cell phones long enough to pay attention to anything. Clarity of value is critical, creativity is crucial, engagement is the next brand foundation.
- transformational change is everywhere: there are lots of people dying to mess up the fundamentals in almost every industry, and they aren't your competitors. Industry blurring will continue unabated, as rebellion against established business models becomes the norm; think GoogleCar, not Toyota. Flexibility with change is critical.
- the bar of expectations continues to increase: you have to innovate to keep up with the expectations of your customer, partners and suppliers, or you don't survive. An increasing number of brands will expire and become something from "the olden days," simply because their organizations lack the ability to innovate.
- the "created in China" phase comes next: half the population is under the age of 25. They're wired, highly collaborative, and have tasted the early stages of economic success. Innovation is thriving - forget manufacturing, think design.
- big trends rule. Over 20 years, health care transitions from prevention to detection; ethanol moves from distillation to production; manufacturing goes from production to fabbing. There are big, sweeping industrial changes underway, and it has nothing to do with the current hype around "social networking," et al.
- knowledge and discovery exponentiates: the new global-mind generates new knowledge at furious rates. We're going from 19 million known chemical substances today, to 80 million by 2025, and 5 billion by 2100. Any new substance can lead to the emergence of a billion dollar market. Discovery rules, time-to-market defines.
- experiential capital dominates over financial capital: over a 20 year span, it's the depth of experience that counts; the agility to respond to rapid change that will define the success or death of an organization. Money thrown at innovation doesn't work; the knowledge that comes from trying things out, and learning from the experience, leads to greater innovation success.
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In my keynotes, I often talk about how the rate of change -- whether with business models, product lifecycles, skills and knowledge -- is speeding up. With such change, there's a lot of uncertainty within many industries as to what to do next: a senior executive of one client commented to me from his perspective, “….entities are engaged in survival tactics because they don’t know what to do next ….”
Innovation is all about adapting to the future -- and if the future is coming at you faster, then you need to innovate faster. Innovation shouldn't be about trying to survive the future -- it should be about thriving.
At a recent keynote to executives within the direct marketing industry, I outline some truths as to the future:
- It’s incredibly fast: Product lifecycles are collapsing. It's said that half of what students learn in their freshman year about science and technology is obsolete or revised by their senior year. There are furious rates of new scientific discovery. Time is being compressed.
- It involves a huge adaptability gap: Earlier generations -- boomers -- have had participated in countless "change management workshops," reflecting the reality that many of them have long struggled with change. Gen-Connect -- today's 15 and under -- will never think of change management issue. They just change.
- It has a huge instantaneity: The average consumer scans 12 feet of shelf space per second. Most news becomes old hat within 36 hours of emerging. We live in the era of the rapid idea-cycle.
- It hits you most when you don’t expect it: Every organization must deal with two realities: the rapid emergence of new technologies, the sudden adoption of old-hat ideas. If you want to understand what comes next, study Gartner's concept of "hype-cycles"
- It's being defined by renegades: Increasingly, the future of many an industry is being defined by industry expatriates. When a real innovator can't innovate within a company, they step outside, form a startup, and spark massive industry ch