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Back in April, I was the closing keynote speaker for the annual Delta Dental of Missouri FutureFocus 2013 event.
It’s an event put together for HR executives, benefits managers and other executives responsible for managing their corporate health plans.
Delta Dental has put together a great highlight reel which you can watch here. It’s kind of cool how they weaved my trends issues, and innovation challenges, throughout the video.
Many of my keynotes and leadership meetings in dozens of industries and corporate events involve a good, hard look at serious future trends. It’s a lot of work, takes a lot of research, but is a hugely rewarding “job.”
And then, every once in a while, something completely different comes along. So it was with a major US financial company that was holding the 30th anniversary of their key customer meeting. And since they’re somewhat in the IT business, they wanted a keynote that looked back in time, rather than looking forward. Something fun, engaging, and which would help folks have a good laugh at the unique experiences baby boomers have been through over the last 30 years. As it turns out, they found me, through one of the speakers bureaus that represents me.
The results was a rollicking, hilarious 45 minute keynote based on lots of my material from one of by books from the 1990′s: Surviving the Information Age, but a lot more material that I’ve developed and have used on stage over this 20 year career as a speaker.
Here’s a great clip — where I’m talking about how quickly our world is changing, as things that are a part of our lives have become things from the “olden days” — and it has happened before our very eyes.
So there I am on another flight – a long trip, with 5 1/2 hours from Toronto to San Francisco, a two hour layover, and then a 1 1/2 hr flight into Palm Springs, where I have a keynote today, Tuesday morning.
It’s a bad thing when your power cord dies at 35,000 feet!
After takeoff, I get set to get to work, and take out my Mac and power wire. I plug in the wire. No power. I assume that maybe my seat power hasn’t been turned on, so I ask the flight attendant. I’m told it is on.
I then look at the small wire that connects from the ‘power brick’ to the Mac, and at the ‘brick’ it is completely frayed. I give it a tiny tug, and it comes right off.
Obviously, I have a problem. You can’t easily source a new wire at 36,000 feet!
But maybe you can. When I first go to the airport, I went to the airline lounge. Opposite from me was a young lady using a Mac.
And moments after my awful discovery on the plane, she went up to the front lavatory!
My mind sprang into action, so when she went back to her seat, I took one of my books (“The Future Belongs to Those Who Are Fast”,) asked if she was going beyond San Francisco, and if not, would I be able to buy her power cord for $100.
She agreed!
Saved!
She needed to use it throughout the flight, she said, but would give it to me near the end. And she did. So I got to Palm Springs, have power, and go on stage in about 1/2 hr.
I won’t mention the young lady by name, but she works for Facebook as an account manager in Toronto, and she is my new hero.
Some months back, the folks at DeVry University interviewed me as part of a series of articles they were doing to focus on the new careers of tomorrow.
The future of long-distance trucking might look more like these “road trains,” as Carroll calls them. These are autonomous vehicles that can navigate long distances without direct operation, with a team of skilled technicians operating them from afar
Their article arrived online today; you can read the original article here, or below.
Fueling America’s Future: New Energy Solutions, New Careers
As U.S. energy independence looms on the horizon, Americans need to start rethinking and transitioning our own energy usage.
Big changes are afoot for U.S. energy. And when energy changes, we all change with it.
American manufacturing, transportation, and technological infrastructures are all deeply affected by, and entangled with, how smartly we produce and consume energy.
According to the International Energy Association, we’re entering an energy renaissance: Its 2012 World Energy Report concludes that the United States will become self-sustaining, in terms of net energy produced, by 2035.[1] Part of that will mean an emergence of new career opportunities for people in the energy sector.
When we try to imagine what U.S. energy may look like in 2035, Jim Carroll, a futurist and energy expert, points to a few clues from very real energy trends emerging right now, changes which include new ways of transporting goods around the country, and new ways in which we think about energy infrastructure and workforces.
Whether we’re talking about renewable or natural energy, efficiency of use is approaching faster because of the acceleration of science, says Carroll, whose many books on innovation include “The Future Belongs to Those Who Are Fast.”
“Scientific knowledge happens and emerges faster than ever before because all of these scientists are plugged together,” he says. “Which means the new scientific discoveries in all these fields are faster, which again leads to higher levels of production in renewables, natural gas and oils.”
On the Road
The American long haul trucking industry has been dependent on traditional and diesel gasoline for decades. But not for much longer, according to Carroll.
“Energy companies are working to retrofit long-distance trucks for natural gas,” Carroll says. But that might be just an interim step toward a brand new paradigm for this industry. Carroll says that technologists are already asking questions like: “How do we use robotics, radar and GPS to link together seven or 10 trucks in a unit that can self drive down the road in a way that is energy efficient?”
The future of long-distance trucking might look more like these “road trains,” as Carroll calls them. These are autonomous vehicles that can navigate long distances without direct operation, with a team of skilled technicians operating them from afar.
A change like this requires us to think about reskilling the American workforce. Truck-driving jobs could potentially disappear, but the need for skilled technicians is growing considerably.
These emerging jobs will be in the management of what Jim Carroll calls “highly sophisticated highway control infrastructure systems,” which will arise from the need to redesign highways for smarter fueled vehicles with better efficiency.
And with smarter infrastructure for highways, there will be greater opportunities for innovating how personal cars are fueled. Many analysts have decried that the electric car is dead, but perhaps it just needs to be rethought. According to Carroll, the renewable battery model, which could take up to eight hours to charge, is outdated.
“Instead, let’s build a battery station that you drive your car into,” Carroll says. “A hydraulic arm reaches in and opens the underneath of your car, takes your battery and places in a brand new fresh one. Thirty seconds and you’re completely refueled and ready to go.”
Reshaping American Infrastructure
The same development is already occurring in many American industries: Think about how manufacturing jobs have shifted from assembly lines to technologically advanced robotics. Or how advanced oil drilling methodologies—hydraulic fracturing or horizontal drilling—have increased domestic oil production due to the efficiency of the processes. These process shifts require rethinking whole infrastructures, and with that, a need for a workforce with new skills.
These are major shifts, but small changes in energy consumption can also showcase how Americans are rethinking their energy consumption. Carroll mentions the Nest Learning Thermostat—a smart thermostat that adjusts the temperature in your house depending on whether you’re home, the time of day, and the outside weather.
A smart thermostat would just be part of the future of smart and energy-efficient homes, where frozen smoke—an expensive but very efficient form of matter—could be used in home insulation. Or, in a concept by the New York architects Cook + Fox, the walls of the home may be biomorphic—practically lizard-like—and able to better absorb sunlight and retain energy depending on the weather.
But, again, the future of energy depends as much on such refinements as bigger innovations that are already being conceived. Some analysts predict that homes will be equipped with hydrogen fuel cells that will create low-emission electricity via a chemical process that combines hydrogen and oxygen.
While there are many different views on when the United States may achieve energy independence, the prevailing opinion is that it will happen—and soon. But independence depends not only from producing more and consuming less energy: The next round of American energy innovation is also linked to scientific and technological advances as well as perhaps the most important feature—a highly skilled workforce.
The RVCF – Retail Value Chain Federation — represents a membership of some of the largest and most sophisticated retailers in the world. Organizations such as Wal-Mart, Neiman Marcus, Costco, Dick’s Sporting Goods and Saks Ffth Avenue.
And so I’m thrilled to announce their announcement that I’ll be the opening keynote for their upcoming annual conference — speaking the rapid trends that are rapidly reshaping every aspect of the world of retail.
The conference will be held in November in Scottsdale, Arizona.
I am sure there will be an opportunity to golf!
Here’s the press release.
RVCF Announces Keynote Jim Carroll for the Upcoming 2013 Annual Fall Conference in Scottsdale, Arizona
“The future belongs to those who are fast!” by Jim Carroll, Futurist, Trends & Innovation Expert. In the world of retail in 2013 and beyond, we will be seeing the more rapid emergence of new ways of doing business, and it’s leading us to a time in which companies have to instantly be able to copy any move by their competition – or risk falling behind.
South Plainfield, NJ (PRWEB) April 18, 2013
In the world of retail in 2013 and beyond, we will be seeing the more rapid emergence of new ways of doing business, and it’s leading us to a time in which companies have to instantly be able to copy any move by their competition – or risk falling behind.
For example, think about what is going on in retail, with one major trend defining the future: the Apple Store checkout process, which involves the elimination of the cash register. Apple has such an impact on retail design and consumer behavior today that many other retailers are now scrambling to duplicate the process, trying to link themselves to the cool Apple cachet.
That’s the new reality in the world of business — pacesetters today can swiftly and suddenly change the pace and structure of an industry, and other competitors have to scramble to keep up. Consider this scenario, which recently unfolded: Amazon announces a same day delivery in some major centers. Google and Walmart almost immediately jump on board. And in just a short time, retailers in every major city are going to have be able to play the same game!
Then there is in-store promotion. We’re entering the era of constant video bombardment in the retail space. How fast is the trend towards constant interaction evolving? Consider the comments by Ron Boire, the new Chief Marketing Officer for Sears in the US (and former chief executive of Brookstone Inc.): “My focus will really be on creating more and better theater in the stores”.
We are going to see a linking of this ‘in-store theater’ with our mobile devices and our social networking relationships. Our Facebook app for a store brand (or the fact we’ve ‘liked’ the brand) will know we’re in the store, causing a customized commercial to run, offering us a personalized product promotion with a hefty discount. This type of scenario will be here faster than you think.
Fast format change, instant business model implementation and rapid-fire strategic moves. That’s the new reality for retail business, and it’s the innovators who will adapt. Join RVCF as international futurist, innovation and trends expert Jim Carroll challenges us about a world in which the future belongs to those who are fast. Jim’s clients include The GAP, the Walt Disney Corporation, ESPN, Johnson & Johnson, the PGA of America, and many, many more.
The RVCF 2013 Annual Fall Conference will take place at the Westin Kierland in Scottsdale, AZ from Sunday, November 3 through Wednesday, November 6. For more information and to register, please visit us on the web athttp://bit.ly/RVCF2013Fall.
About Jim Carroll
Jim Carroll, Futurist, Trends and Innovation Expert.
Jim Carroll is one of the world’s leading futurists, trends & innovation experts. And it’s his inspirational, transformative thinking that will help you discover opportunity in an era of high-velocity change. And in his most recent keynotes and leadership sessions, he has been helping his clients meet the challenges of the economic contraction by focusing on innovation, and by aligning their strategy to fast-paced future trends.
He speaks on a wide variety of topics, including technology, business model change, innovation, and global challenges and growth.
He is the author of several books, including “The Future Belongs To Those Who Are Fast”, “Ready, Set, Done: How to Innovate When Faster is the New Fast” and “What I Learned from Frogs in Texas: Saving Your Skin with Forward Thinking Innovation.”
About Retail Value Chain Federation.
Driving Continuous Innovation, Collaboration and Perfect Execution
RVCF promotes best practices, trading partner alignment, collaboration, and technology solutions to streamline operations, lower costs and speed goods to market throughout the retail value chain. For more information, visit http://www.rvcf.com.
Media Contact:
Sheri Kurdakul
media(at)rvcf(dot)com
646-442-3701
I had the honor of being a keynote speaker for the recent Canadian Automotive Dealers Association Summit 2013, sharing the agenda with the legendary Bob Lutz, former Vice Chairman of GM, and Steve Rattner (Obama’s “Car Czar” and the main architect of the 2009 North American auto industry restructuring).
Think forward to how quickly technology and automobiles are going to evolve, particularly with autonomous driving technology. Who will win at this race? Google or Ford? Apple or GM?
It’s a fascinating time for the auto industry — in many regions of the world, signs of significant recovery abound, sales are up, and happy days are here again!
On the other hand, there’s still the rest of the future to contend with.
And that was the focus on my keynote. There’s certainly a lot that’s happening, and some pretty big changes. For auto dealers, it will be their ability to innovate in the context of these trends that will define their future success.
So what did I concentrate on? I framed my keynote around 4 major trends, which I called:
Let’s take a look.
1. Transformation
The most significant change to the auto industry is already well underway, and is easily summarized by one of the slides from my deck:
Quite simply, the pace, control and speed of innovation is shifting from auto companies in Detroit (and elsewhere) to the technology companies of Silicon Valley. This was the focus an article run in an industry publication before my talk, Detroit isn’t keep pace with innovation, says futurist Jim Carroll.
“Shifting customer expectations are driving part of that change as drivers will now expect their vehicles to be as advanced, easy to use and even as “replaceable” as their smartphones and tablet devices that are so central to their lives.
He says dealers need to ensure their staff is ready to adapt to the change. “A car you sell today might be out of date two years from now,” he says. “How do you keep your salesforce and service force up to date with that speed of change?”
“Some people see a trend and see a threat. Real innovative people see the same trend and they see opportunity. That’s what dealers need to ensure they do when they think about this very fast paced future,” says Carroll.
Mobile will also forever change the retail experience and dealers will need to adjust to provide better customer experiences. “I will talk about the changes going on in retail,” says Carroll. “Mobile is the big story.”
He says social media and mobile shopping is having a huge impact on purchasing decisions. “There is a lot of technology that is coming that will link to mobile.” These new technologies will forever change the customer interaction with retailers. “It’s happening very, very quickly,” says Carroll.
In my keynote, I played into this theme. To start out, I asked the audience how many people in the audience used all the features of their new “Smart TV’s.” Very few hands went up.
Why? Because many people are coming to the conclusion that most smart TV’s are actually pretty dumb! What we’ve seen in the last several years, with most so-called smart TV’s, is a situation in which television manufacturers, who have never been really part of the Silicon Valley technology and design culture, suddenly began throwing all kinds of features onto televisions, such as Facebook, Twitter, Netflix.
The result is, if you pardon the expression, a real barf-bag of clumsy screen navigation, confusing remotes, ill-designed apps, and, well, just a bit of a major FAIL.
Smart TV’s? No one uses smart TV’s because they’re dumb. And that seems to be a message that is resonating on the Internet; such as this article recently featured on Wired.
“People aren’t using their internet-connected smart TVs for anything beyond, well, watching TV. It turns out, nobody wants to tweet from their TV. Or read books. Or do whatever it is people do on LinkedIn. Worse, more than 40 percent of the people who buy a connected TV aren’t even using it for its ostensible primary purpose: getting online video onto the biggest screen in your home. “
Contrast the Smart TV experience to the Apple TV. The latter has a crisp design, clean, simple and intuitive interface. Quite simply, it just works.
Now think about the new car that you might own. It’s got a new, cool GPS navigation system. Perhaps an interface to your iPhone. Some entertainment options. And most likely, it’s probably clunky as heck. Slow. Cumbersome to use. Just difficult to navigate. Noted the New York Times in an article in June 2012: “‘See, you spin this knob here, which moves you through these selections up here. Then you press down on the knob to select something, but don’t forget about the other menus under this button…”
And that where we are in the auto industry today: we have a lot of car companies working to try to figure out how to make technology work. And the fact is, in a world in which the future belongs to those who are fast, they are having a difficult time doing so. They don’t get great, clean design. And they have horrifically long development lead times: PCMagazine observed that “a 2012 car could have a system originally designed in 2006 and put into production in 2008 when that model first hit the streets.”
Maybe what is happening is that car companies are making the same mistakes that TV companies made. They’re making a lot of cars with a lot of cool technology that few people will use, because, well, the interface and design sucks!
Contrast any auto company and their dashboard experience to that of Tesla Motors, the “Silicon Valley” car company! This is a technology company that is figuring out how to make cars, a completely different paradigm. And most people would conclude that they’ve nailed the part of in-car design. The reviews of the in-car dash, with it’s crisp 17″ screen, show a passion and delight within the customer base. It’s like the Mac or OS/X design for automobiles!
Tesla isn’t a car company. It’s a tech company, headquartered in a hive of innovation that helped lure the sharp minds who conceptualized the car from an outsider’s perspective……If Tesla is a technology company, the evidence starts with the car’s innovative infotainment system. The 17-inch touch screen controls nearly everything — including navigation, stereo, climate control and driving settings. As clear and touch-sensitive as an Apple iPad, the huge screen can easily accommodate multiple functions at once.
Although Tesla’s future remains uncertain, its Model S delivers on the firm’s grand ambitions, 9 February 2013, Los Angeles Times
Think forward to how quickly technology and automobiles are going to evolve, particularly with autonomous driving technology. Who will win at this race? Google or Ford? Apple or GM?
I think my answer is probably pretty clear!
2. Acceleration
The second trend I spoke too was the fact that the problem above was coming about because the auto industry was now finding itself subject to the dramatic change that is wrought by Silicon Valley when it starts to take over the rate of innovation in an industry. This is a topic I frequently cover — take a look at my post, “Silicon Valley Innovation Set to Dominate Every Industry.”
Consider the auto industry just over 5 to 6 ago:
Now consider what could be really big in the auto industry just five years from now; I suggested that the pace of innovation is such that we could see:
Of course, many people in the room probably sat back and reacted “that’s the dumbest thing I ever heard!” — which I pointed out, observing that this is one of the key attitudes that holds people back from trying to pursue new ideas!
I suspect we are going to see a tremendous amount of technologiical innovation occuring in the automobile space in the next five years, and most people will simply be floored by the velocity of what occurs.
3. Interaction
The third trend I spoke on was the change that would quickly come to automotive dealers, around the theme of the ‘future of retail.’ I’ve done quite a bit in this space; most recnetly, for example, I spoke at a senior leadership meeting with senior executives of The GAP, the global fashion/clothing brand.
There’s a key quote I found that I think summarizes the reality facing us: ”The next five years will bring more change to retail than the last 100 years” (from Cyriac Roeding, the CEO of Shopkick, a location- based shopping app available at Macy’s, Target and other top retailers)
There is much happening here — I’ve recently been speaking at a variety of retail conferences — and will summarize that into a different post.
4. Generations
The fourth topic on the list? As automobiles become more technologically advanced, there is an increasing amount of generational discomfort with some dealers, particularly with some who are struggling to deal with all this change!
The UK Birmingham Post, reporting on a Ford dealership training session, noted that “….35% of sales staff had little confidence in their own ability to demonstrate hi-tech in-car equipment such as Bluetooth devices and voice control systems”
That’s a pretty staggering observation if true! And that is happening in the context in which more young people are visiting the same dealers, and participating in the practive of “showrooming.” In an article from the Dow Jones News Service Dealers Take Notice as More People Use Phones to Buy Cars9 February 2013,, it was said that
And so clearly, we have a really unique generational dynamic happening in auto-showrooms!
—–
Put it all together, and it is clear that the automotive industry, and the dealers who support it, are in a particularly unique period of time that involves a lot of change, transition and tranformation!
In the home office here, we’re faced with a dismal spring, as an ice storm, wind and rain continue today!
So we need some excitement around here to dispel the gloom of a winter that just won’t go away!
So — let’s move some books!
For just $25, we’ll send you all 3 copies of my most recent books : The Future Belongs to Those Who are Fast, What I Learned From Frogs in Texas, and Ready, Set, Done: How to Innovate When Faster is the New Fast!
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If I am a typical customer of Apple, then maybe its better days really are over.
I began my voyage into becoming a hard core Mac fan in 2007 with a MacBook Pro. I quickly became an addict.
And right now, I’ve got it all. On my desk, I’ve got a Mac Pro tower with a 27″ Cinema Display. An IPad 2 and an iPhone 5.
On my “obsolete shelf” sits an iPhone 4 and a 3. And I’ve got the latest Mac Pro.
My wife and sons each have a MacBook Pro, an iPad, and an iPhone.
We each have or have had an iPod and a Nano …. of course, replaced by the iPhone.
And we’ve got, between our home and ski chalet, 3 Apple TV generation 1′s and 2 Apple TV generations 2.
My home and chalet are each networked via an Airport network hub.
I use Keynote, Pages, and Numbers.
We’ve all got the latest software.
I use iTunes Match.
Oh, and there’s a Mac Mini on my desk too.
The thing is, there’s really nothing I need to buy from Apple anymore. I’ve got it all.
The more their customers become like me, the more they stagnate in terms of growth.
I’m a huge Apple fan. But I don’t even find it exciting to go into the Apple store anymore. I’ve got it all!
So what comes next? I’m really not sure!
Late last year, KOA (Kampgrounds of America) brought me in to keynote the annual franchisee conference in Orlando, Florida.
There’s a lot of change in the world of camping, and KOA is in the midst of a re -branding exercise. They liked me because I promised, as part of my preparation, to do a lot of original research on a wide variety of trends impacting the ‘outdoor hospitality’ industry. And I did!
Here’s a little gem on why there’s a decrease in the amount of camping that you people do. Kind of fun to watch!
Was it a good talk?
The feedback has just come in, and the clients comments are just absolutely thrilling:
“Jim Carroll’s session with our franchisees was extremely timely and exactly what we were looking for. Based on where we are in our system and the changes and innovations we are implementing, we could not have selected a better speaker. One of the things that made Jim’s message so powerful for our franchisees was the amazing detail and customization Jim included in his session. We’ve gotten a great reaction from our franchisees and I’d highly recommend Jim to any franchisee system looking for a message of change and innovation delivered with a lot of great energy and humor. He was great!” Mike Booth, Assistant VP, Franchising, KOA Franchise Services
and
“Jim Carroll was fantastic! He was funny, well organized, and communicative. The effort and detail he put into finding out about our industry and our franchise system made it possible for him to connect immediately with our franchisees. He was by far the easiest speaker we have ever worked with and anticipated our needs every step of the way. I’d recommend Jim to anyone looking for a futurist who delivers an outstanding presentation – in both relevant content and a dynamic and fun delivery style. We loved him!” Jenny McCullough, Director of Training and Events,KOA Franchise Services
I think the thing which really makes me stand out in the market is the effort, research and customization I put into my keynotes. You can read about this: I wrote a blog post some time back, “What Goes Into Building a Great Keynote?”
I’m doing a lot of interviews these days around the future of agriculture. Maybe that’s because I’m doing a lot of keynotes in this field (pardon the pun), but also because a lot of searches for trends in agriculture hit my site.
“Plants might someday be able to analyze themselves, through genetic coding or embedded computer chips, he says. Do your plants need a nitrogen boost or a drink of water? They’ll send alerts directly to your computer.”
Here’s the latest, from AgWeb / The Farm Journal Technology publication. You can find the original article here.
Driverless tractors! Weed-zapping robots! Data-transmitting crops! Forecasting what farms will be like 30 years from now might seem an exercise in science fiction, but imagine how alien today’s farms might appear to someone from the early 1980s. Imagine pulling a farmer aside from that era and trying to explain telematics or precision ag technology. Imagine explaining what your smartphone can do.
Making a multi-decade forecast is a challenge, admits David Nicholson, head of research and development at Bayer CropScience.
“I always say we can look 10 years into the future because that’s how long research and development projects take,” he says. “We know what’s going to happen because it’s in our labs and our pipelines today.”
Anything beyond that window is trickier, says Nicholsen, who foresees a more localized precision ag experience.
“It will be precise,” he explains. “That seed in that bit of the field is working well. That same seed in that other bit of the field isn’t. Why? What’s different? We will have the tools to do plant-by-plant analysis.”
Noted futurist Jim Carroll takes the idea a step further. Plants might someday be able to analyze themselves, through genetic coding or embedded computer chips, he says. Do your plants need a nitrogen boost or a drink of water? They’ll send alerts directly to your computer.
“It’s not farfetched to think of intelligent plants with connectivity,” Carroll says. In fact, connectivity is a concept that will drive agricultural advancements as the next generation moves in.
“The farmer of 2043 is five today,” Carroll says. “He or she has never known a world without mobile devices and mass connectivity.”
Another driving force comes down to mathematics, says Ron Restum, vice president of North America sales with Koch Agronomic Services.
The generally accepted equation is a world population of 9 billion people by the year 2050 with a dwindling amount of available arable land. Therefore, Restum says farmers must produce more bushels per acre, or the numbers won’t pencil out.
Technology Driven. ”Progress will have to be tech-driven,” Restum says. “We have to continue to be on the forefront of R&D.” Some technologies that sound far-flung should be staples before 2043, but technology and human concerns must be balanced before a product can be integrated.
The autonomous tractor is a prime example. Several companies have developed prototypes. John Deere has been working on driverless tractors for 5 to 10 years, according to Bob Dyar, a product manager with the company’s Intelligent Solutions Group.
“The real hurdles aren’t technological ones—they’re social ones,” Dyar says. How comfortable would you feel driving down the highway and seeing a driverless car alongside, he asks. A similar comfort level for driverless tractors will take time to develop, he says.
“It’s quite easy to make a tractor autonomous where it can drive itself,” Dyar says. “The challenge is making it perceptive, so you trust it not to hit a tree or the family dog.”
If farming goes “robotic,” will a farmer’s role fundamentally change? The farmer becomes the general, and the office serves as the command center where the troops (remote-controlled tractors, robots armed with lasers that identify and zap weeds and insects) are sent into battle each day.
What the farm of the future will look like is anybody’s guess, says Craig Ratajczyk, Illinois Soybean Association chief executive officer. “Significant changes are inevitable,” he says. “Thirty years from now, farming won’t look anything like it does today.”
In November 2011, I was featured as the opening keynote speaker for the 100th Annual Meeting of the Texas Municipal League.
In the audience of more than 2,500 were many mayors and other elected officials of cities and towns large and small from throughout the state of Texas.
And it’s just a few days after President Obama swept to his second term in office – and so I needed to move these folks into thinking about the opportunities of the future!
Watch this quick 40 second clip and see what you think!
I appear online and in the April issue of Growing Produce magazine in Florida, talking about some trends impacting the future of agriculture.
The “robotic tractor of the future isn’t too far away!
The Future Is Now In Agricultural Technologies
March 14, 2013
By Frank Giles
If you could look into a crystal ball and see the future of agriculture over the next 25 years, you would be blown away and find some of it hard to imagine. And, you might be surprised that what seems futuristic is already happening on the farm.
When considering the pace of technological advancements, Moore’s Law is constructive. It generally states that computing power doubles every two years (some say 18 months). While the computing power doubles, the price for the technology falls.
Think about Apple’s iPhone. Every year the company introduces two new-and-improved versions of the phone. Each one is a little faster and can do more stuff, while the earlier versions get cheaper in price.
While all these gee-whiz advancements seem to be happening most in consumer electronics, don’t be fooled. It is happening in agriculture, too. Jim Carroll and Jack Uldrich are two popular futurists on the speaking circuit across the U.S. Both say the wave of innovation impacting agriculture will be staggering in the coming years. “We live in tremendous times and tend to overlook the leaps we’ve made particularly in agriculture,” says Uldrich.
Sensors And Bots
The size of computer sensors are getting smaller, but more powerful over time, while the price drops. Imagine a watermelon field with tiny sensors spread thoughout connected to the vines to inform the grower exactly what plants need for water and other inputs. “These sensors are getting so affordable they already are being used in West Coast vineyards and on farms in Israel,” says Urldrich. “That may sound like science fiction, but who would have imagined 25 years ago that today we would have immediate access to the world’s encyclopedia in our pockets via the use of smartphones.”
Carroll says robotics will be having an impact on the farm quicker than people would believe. “The technology for autonomous vehicles is already pretty mature,” he says. “If you have a meeting with Google in San Jose, they’ll pick you up at the airport in an autonomous car. There’s a person inside ‘just in case.’ It will probably be easier to deploy on a farm than on a highway.
Given all the controversy around immigration reform, Uldrich says robots might fill in for harvest in the future.“There are people at MIT who have developed a robot so sophisticated that it can detect when a tomato is ripe and so sensitive it can pick it without damaging the fruit,” he says. “Robotic technology is getting better, faster, and more affordable. It will allow us to do much more in harvesting a wide variety of crops.”
A Whole New World
There is a viral YouTube clip of a 1-year-old girl trying to manipulate a print magazine like an iPad. She moves her fingers around the magazine to no avail — it does nothing. Give her an iPad and she’s delighted flicking through screens with her fingers.
Jack Uldrich marvels that technology is becoming so user-friendly and intuitive that a baby can figure it out. “What will that little girl expect for information as she gets older,” he asks. “She will want to interact with information. She will want to know who grew the oranges she buys. Social media already is providing this opportunity for interaction and the demand for it will only grow in the future.”
Two years ago, I was the keynote speaker for an annual conference of Consumer Goods and Technology Magazine, and from that a great relationship was born, with a few repeat bookings into other conferences and events that they run.
“Pacesetters today can swiftly and suddenly change the pace and structure of an industry, and other competitors have to scramble to keep up” – Grab the full CGT report with the image above!
And for the second year in a row, I’m featured in their 2013 Review & Outlook: The best and brightest minds in consumer goods share predictions and guidance for the coming year publication, with many other luminaries in the industry.
My contribution follows below. You can grab the entire PDF of the report by clicking on the image of the cover. Registration is required.
Jim Carroll, Futurist, Trends & Innovation Expert
The future belongs to those who are fast!
In the world of retail in 2013 and beyond, we will be seeing the more rapid emergence of new ways of doing business, and it’s leading us to a time in which companies have to instantly be able to copy any move made by their competition — or risk falling behind.
For example, think about what is going on in retail, with one major trend defining the future: the Apple Store checkout process, which involves the elimination of the cash register. Apple has such an impact on retail design and consumer behaviour today that many other retailers are now scrambling to duplicate the process, trying to link themselves to the cool Apple cachet.
That’s the new reality in the world of business — pacesetters today can swiftly and suddenly change the pace and structure of an industry, and other competitors have to scramble to keep up.
Consider this scenario, which recently unfolded: Amazon. com announces a same day delivery in some major centers. Google and Walmart almost immediately jump on board. And in just a short time, retailers in every major city are going to have to be able to play the same game!
Then there is in-store promotion. We’re entering the era of constant video bombardment in the retail space. How fast is the trend toward constant interaction evolving? Consider the comments by Ron Boire, the new chief marketing officer for Sears in the United States (and former chief executive of Brookstone Inc.): ”My focus will really be on creating more and better theater in the stores.”
We are going to see a linking of this “in-store theater” with mobile devices and social networking relationships. Our Facebook app for a store brand (or the fact we’ve ‘”liked” the brand) will know we’re in the store, causing a customized commercial to run, offering us a personalized product promo- tion with a hefty discount. This type of scenario will be here faster than you think!
Fast format change, instant business model implementation, rapid-fire strategic moves — that’s the new reality for retail busi- ness, and it’s the innovators who will adapt.
That was the reaction of a visitor to my Web site today.
“Wow, that was fast!” And it is — you might notice things are moving along quite a bit faster today.
The folks behind the DNS service I’ve been using for 15 years — easyDNS — offered me the chance to try out their new WordPress hosting service, easyPress.
I first said no. After all, just short of a year ago, I setup a rock solid, superfast server over at Linode, with all the latest in high speed WordPress support. I wrote a lengthy blog post about it. The thing was optimized to run with all the latest tools and tricks, include such things as Varnish cacheing and other complex methods of just getting about as much performance out of a WordPress site as you could get. I was pretty proud of my setup.
And it certainly has performed wonderfully. I had pretty good page load times of 2 to 3 seconds. So I thought I was in good shape!
The folks at easyPress / easyDNS suggested I might want to try it out anyways. So I did. For the last two weeks, I’ve been fooling around, comparing their service to my optimized site.
I came to the conclusion — they won! The performance they get on their system just blew me away in terms of speed.
And so about 5pm yesterday, I pulled the plug, so to speak, and moved all of JimCarroll.com over to easyPress.
If you are serious about your WordPress blog — and need super high speed page rendering times, blazing fast page load times, and great service, then these folks are for you.
You can get on board by clicking on the image above and registering your email address. You won’t regret it!
Convenience Store Decisions gave me a call, and wanted to speak about some of the trends impacting the industry.
The intervivew was a piece of cake — I do a lot of keynotes in the retail space. And just last year, a leader in “forecourt marketing” (which is industry speak for c-store marketing…), featured me as the keynote speaker at their Digital Forecourt Marketing Summit
Here’s the extract of my observations from the article. (Small error in the article though – I’m not based in Dallas, but Toronto!)
Shift in Consumer Demands
Dallas-based futurist Jim Carroll sees healthier foods becoming a more fundamental offering at more convenience store down the road. “You wouldn’t think it, but there is a very seismic change going on in terms of what the stores are selling,” he said. “I think they’re realizing that what people are consuming—fried foods and fatty snacks—is changing. People are much more conscious of their food consumption.”
This is a trend that Carroll has been hearing about personally—directly from c-store operators. “Wellness—focusing on nutrition and an active lifestyle—is certainly a trend,” he said. “You think about the number of convenience stores that have undertaken a shift to fresh food. The focus is not on Doritos and Twinkies. Sure, some operators do focus on these items, but your industry leaders and top quartile chains are embracing change.”
Retailers, Carroll said, are trying to get away from the traditional popping chips paradigm. “If you play into the sort of ‘life to go’ issue and recognize that people want to get in and get a healthy meal quickly, why not have those items at the ready in convenience and gas stations? Even 7-Elevens now are selling sushi.”
Promotions, too, will gain impact, Carroll predicted. “It won’t be too long before I am able to fill up my car while my iPhone is communicating with the c-store,” he said. “By the time I walk into the store an LCD TV panel up on the wall is going to recognize me and greet me with a customized commercial.”
Once the store recognizes a particular customer there are endless possibilities to upsell merchandise via text messages and electronic coupons. The constant in the equation is change.
“I see c-stores undergoing relentless change in terms of what they do,” said Carroll, “because I think consumers change so quickly. That’s a major part of what’s going on—a very fast format shift. There is a South African chain that is converting its entire c-store strategy over to fresh food—a complete format shift, because even over there they are seeing that same kind of demand for fresh food served fast.”
Here’s an interview that was taken after my keynote for Process Excellence Network in Orlando in January.
“Companies have lost control of the future,” says futurist and author Jim Carroll, “And they have to learn to play into that reality.” Mobile devices, intelligent connected technology, and changing demographics are driving vast changes in consumer behaviour and expectations. The rise of technology has also led to an increasing concentration of power in the hands of customers who now have more information about companies than ever before.
In this PEXNetwork.com video interview, Jim Carroll talks about how this means that companies now need the ability to be flexible and continually reinvent themselves – in both products and services – in order to respond to the fast changing habits of consumers. This, he says, means “faster is the new fast” where victory goes to the company that has the ability to adapt and respond, especially in rolling out the right process at the right time to launch a new product or service.
Canadian Auto Dealer News, January 2013
by Todd Phillips
Futurist and retail expert Jim Carroll will take the stage at the CADA Summit on Feb. 13 in Toronto and give dealers a wake up call about how quickly their world is about to change. “The pace of innovation in the automobile or truck that they are selling has shifted from Detroit to Silicon Valley,” says Carroll in an interview with Canadian auto dealer. “That’s a huge and seismic change.”
“The pace of innovation in the automobile or truck that they are selling has shifted from Detroit to Silicon Valley,” says Carroll in an interview with Canadian auto dealer. “That’s a huge and seismic change.”
Carroll is one of the keynote speakers at the one day summit event created by the Canadian Automobile Dealers Association. “Detroit is losing control of its innovation future as it shifts to the technology industry,” he says. “The industry is going to innovate at the speed of Apple, Google and high-tech companies as opposed to the speed of Detroit. There is a massive and sudden acceleration of change that comes with that.”
Shifting customer expectations are driving part of that change as drivers will now expect their vehicles to be as advanced, easy to use and even as “replaceable” as their smartphones and tablet devices that are so central to their lives.
He says dealers need to ensure their staff is ready to adapt to the change. “A car you sell today might be out of date two years from now,” he says. “How do you keep your salesforce and service force up to date with that speed of change?”
“Some people see a trend and see a threat. Real innovative people see the same trend and they see opportunity. That’s what dealers need to ensure they do when they think about this very fast paced future,” says Carroll.
Mobile will also forever change the retail experience and dealers will need to adjust to provide better customer experiences. “I will talk about the changes going on in retail,” says Carroll. “Mobile is the big story.”
He says social media and mobile shopping is having a huge impact on purchasing decisions. “There is a lot of technology that is coming that will link to mobile.” These new technologies will forever change the customer interaction with retailers. “It’s happening very, very quickly,” says Carroll.
Carroll is one of more than 20 speakers and panelists who will be featured at this one day summit aimed at helping Canadian dealers get a glimpse of what lies ahead so they can be better prepared.
After his keynote address, Carroll will join a panel of recognized dealer retail experts for a discussion about these trends. The retail panel is hosted by Canadian auto dealer columnist and industry expert Chuck Seguin. CADA Laureates Christian Chia, Trevor Boquist and Paul Shaw will be on the panel.
Another high profile keynote speaker is Bob Lutz, former vice-chairman of GM, and an auto industry insider who is highly regarded and whose views are much sought after. President Obama’s former Car Czar Steven Rattner is also a featured keynote speaker.
Sessions at the CADA Summit range from updates on economic trends, retail and consumer trends, a panel of manufacturers featuring the Canadian leaders of Ford, VW and Kia, insights from the elite of Canada’s auto dealers — the CADA Laureates, perspectives from media pundits, and more.
Paul Clark, President & CEO, TD Auto Finance will present economic insights as part of the morning session. TD Auto Finance is the exclusive CADA Summit sponsor.
One of my favorite innovation phrases that I always use on stage or in a CEO off-site is “think big, start small, scale fast!”
So I woke up this morning and came into the home office, and was thinking about the “start small’ part of that phrase. And quickly jotted down a list of small ideas.
Here goes!
Of course, my ideas aren’t original. The original concept of small perhaps came from the greatest advertising campaign of all time — for the VW Beetle, Think Small.
It’s a powerful concept. And while I was writing this post, I was looking for an image related to that campaign — and came across this ad from a small California design firm — one that extolls the power of their smallness.
It’s right there : “Small teams work best.”
In my case, the entirety of my career as a global keynote speaker, futurist, trends and innovation expert is that it’s me, and my wife, and a small home office that is plugged into a great big world. From here, I serve up insight and guidance to a vast range of global organizations, associations, CEO’s and leadership teams. Thinking big, starting small, scaling fast.
Perhaps the real secret to succeeding in a world where the future belongs to those who are fast!
Read my Foreword for this report on the new era of customer interaction
Next week in Orlando, I’m set to be the opening speaker for the 14th Annual Process Excellence Week 2013 in Orlando – with folks from most global Fortune 1,000 organizations in the room.
The focus – aligning fast paced change to a customer centric world, and the need to align business process to market, customer, technology, business model change.
There’s a lot to cover and a lot to talk about — and I’ve got 45 minutes to get these folks fired up about the fascinating opportunities unfolding in their future as we devolve to a world in which the future belongs to those who are fast!
The folks at PEX have just released their seminal 2013 white paper, “Transforming customer feedback into opportunity.”
And they were kind enough to ask me to consider writing a Foreword for the report — to which I responded with an unequivocal yes. I pride myself as a speaker on the obvious need to go above and beyond client expectations — it’s not just about the keynote, it’s about an opportunity for transformation of a profession! And turning customer feedback into opportunity!
You can read my Foreword from the report by hitting the image.
You can also request a full copy of the report here — you will need to register.
Three of my favorite comments from my Foreword:
Admit that mistakes will happen
It’s ok. It’s the 21st century. Bad things go wrong all the time. Accept that, and use that as a go- forward strategy.
“Things will go wrong and we will work to fix them fast” is a better strategy than “we plan on rolling it out and holding our breath that things don’t get messed up.”
Empower people with niceness
Customer-centricity and the instant-age demands that the customer be made happy — quickly.
Give staff who have not previously had the authority, the authority to do things to the customer that are nice. That will help to ease the early part of the “pain process.”
Every company in every industry is in a situation in which the customer is more empowered than ever before. Accept that — work with it — learn from it — and use it as the base for innovation!
