Jim Carroll- Futurist, Trends & Innovation Keynote Speaker

Today, I’m speaking at a leadership meeting for HJ Heinz in Pittsburgh. I wrote this article in 2003, and thought it appropriate to make it available once again!

Coping with Ketchup, by Jim Carroll
Globe & Mail, September 2003

Go on, admit it: You still set the “upside down” ketchup bottle down cap up.

You’re not alone. Lots of people — adults mostly — automatically turn the bottle so the white cap is at the top — even though it’s been almost a year since Heinz started to offer the new bottle. It’s a pretty good example that when change comes about, there are plenty of people who struggle to adapt.

Of course, we can all be forgiven for an inability to cope with ketchup bottle change because it involves instinct and ingrained behaviour.

It’s when we can’t deal with other kind of change — things that you have to control and adapt to — that things go wrong.

The problem is, we live in a time that involves a rapid rate of change. Just take a look around. Technology continues to invade our workplaces, resulting in massive change to day-to-day business processes and procedures. The customers and marketplace have changed, with so much new competition that the idea of “captive consumers” and “guaranteed revenue streams” has gone by the wayside.

New products come and go at an increasing and often infuriating pace as innovation comes to take hold in many organizations. Mergers, breakups, reorganizations and restructuring result in an almost constant shuffling of job and career responsibilities.

In times like these, you can guarantee yourself that there will be much more new in your life tomorrow than just a different ketchup bottle.

Yet the issue of change continues to be a big problem for organizations, because so many people find it difficult — or simply don’t want — to cope.

The implications are huge: Projects get bogged down or fail. Tension and workplace stress rise. Misguided strategies are introduced and ill-founded rumours fly. All the classic signs of an organization full of people who aren’t prepared to cope with change.

If you are dealing with these realities — either as an individual seeking to enhance your career, or as an executive responsible for taking your organization forward — there are a few ways out:

• Get into the right frame of mind

Years ago, the Pogo comic strip featured a panel in which he observed: “We is faced with insurmountable opportunities.” Rather than seeing change as a threat, take a look for the opportunity that might exist within any type of change.

The wrong frame of mind is illustrated in a comment by Ogden Nash: “Progress is great but it has gone on far too long.” If that is the way you react to new technologies and new ways of working, then you are almost making it certain that you’ll battle progress — and as soon as you do, you’ll be setting yourself back.

• Get rid of your ‘not-my’ barriers

Many people and corporate cultures react to any type of change, particularly those involving business or workplace processes or corporate structure, by erecting as many barriers as they can.

Immediately, the refrain starts — it is “not my department  / responsibility / job / area of expertise / problem / day!“

Putting up such barriers almost guarantees that you’ll let the change get the worst of you. Rather than trying to avoid something, seek to take an active role. That way, you’ll guarantee yourself a learning experience, develop new skills and capabilities, and ensure that you take an active and healthy role in helping to ensure that the specific type of change is successful.

Don’t deny change

Accept the inevitability of change. Like it or not, things will be different tomorrow. There’s a statistic that is used by Australia’s innovation council chairman: 65 per cent of children in pre-school will be employed in roles and jobs that don’t exist today.

Believe that, and use it as a barometer for the type of change that is set to occur within every job and career today.

Banish from the workplace the worst phrase ever to be coined: “We’ve always done it that way.” Well, so what? Maybe that means it’s ripe for a change. Why not try something new?

One day, someone at Heinz looked at the same old ketchup bottle they’d been selling for decades, and asked, “Why not turn it upside down?” Can you imagine the reaction — a likely chorus of naysayers who immediately suggested that it would be impossible, and perhaps downright dumb, to do such a thing. Yet look at the result today — a practical, sensible new product — and it is evident that the change was a success.

• Anticipate change

Establish some type of “change radar.” You should always be on the lookout for signs of the forthcoming business and industry change that might affect you. Keep your ears and eyes tuned for any signs that could result in a change in your job or career circumstances. If you learn to identify the signs of impending change, then you can begin to determine what you might need to do to enhance your career skills, any necessary training you might need to take, in addition to gaining insight into some of the new responsibilities and activities that you might be able to undertake.

• Adopt the attitude of kids

The younger generation today seems to have an ingrained ability to cope with change. They see the ketchup bottle, and say “Kewww.!” They’re accustomed to change — because they are growing up in the midst of it. To them, change is normal and to be expected.

Adopt their attitude — “change is cool” — by turning every situation of change into an opportunity rather than a threat.

Here’s an article that I wrote for the spring issue of Marketline, for the BCAMA. Some good food for thought on the future of branding, and how all this social networking might really evolve.

Key point: “The concept of branding is being re-energized. People care again”

Pat Boone Has an App
by Jim Carroll, Marketline, Spring 2010

Does that blow your mind? It should. After all, for some people, Pat Boone could be the most uncool guy around, and yet he has an App with a pretty good rating in the Apple App Store. I think that’s pretty cool.

If it doesn’t blow your mind because you don’t know who he is, then here’s the deal: he’s a singer who sold some 50 million albums during the 50s and 60s. Think Justin Bieber if he was around in 1956.

I learned about Pat Boone’s App when I set out to get my own. Given the nature of my business, I’m a brand, and I’m a big believer that we are rapidly entering the era of the personal brand App. And in fact, the same folks who developed Pat’s App pulled mine together and had it available in the App store within just eight weeks.

What does this have to do with the future of marketing? Probably everything and anything, in that we are in the very early stages of what is likely to be a very significant transformation in the energy that people have towards the concept of a brand.

Bill Gates once observed that “most people overestimate the amount of change that will occur in two years, and underestimate the change that will occur over 10 years”.

Think about that statement in the context of the current impact of social networking on brands and marketing.

Certainly, everyone knows that carefully orchestrated Twitter, Facebook and YouTube-centric marketing campaigns can provide a substantial uplift in sales and that, to a large degree, successful brands are focused on building relationships by having conversations with their customers. It’s all too obvious to everyone that if a brand doesn’t respect the fascinating power possessed by the new collective consciousness, things can go to hell in a handbasket in a hurry. And we all know that, increasingly, a brand is no longer what you say it is it’s what ‘they’ say it is.

Yet, these are early days. Where will we be 10 years out? How will the art of marketing have changed? What will a brand be in 10 years’ time? Will we even find it necessary to market a brand? Or will brands become such a part of our lives that we won’t even think it necessary to market them, because each of us will essentially own those brands? How do you market a product to someone who already owns the brand for that product?

Certainly there has been a tsunami of change in the marketing and creative world over the last few years with the explosion of social networking. But do we know where this change is going to take us? I’m not certain we do know. When the Internet first appeared on the scene, who could have imagined Twitter, or YouTube or cyber-battles between China and a company that didn’t exist less than a decade ago?

Much can happen in a two-year time span. Much more can happen in 10 years. The difficulty is in figuring out how to steer to wherever we might be in a decade. These are the early days and the pace of change is still accelerating. Brands are learning to adapt to fascinating new realities, and marketing skills are transitioning at lightning speed.

Customers are toying with their vast new powers, learning to use them in new and fascinating and sometimes scary and dangerous ways. Brands can go from hero to zero in a matter of moments. Marketing campaigns that one day seemed edgy and leading-edge can suddenly fall off a cliff, looking dull and out of date as a new brand comes along to displace them. And it all occurs at blinding speed.

Maybe in a decade some brands will have transitioned further into our lives through even more connectivity than we can currently imagine. Perhaps one day the packaging for a medication that I will be using will “talk” via a subterranean Twitter-like stream to a sensor embedded in my mobile device, updating my medical profile and adjusting my dosage based on up-to-the-second medical tests. When a brand becomes a part of my being, does that mean that the new brand relationship of today looks ancient?

I don’t think anyone has figured everything out yet with social media. There are certainly a lot of people talking about it, and I spend a fair amount speaking to the trend myself. But I think we are in the midst of something unique, special and awe-inspiring. I am convinced that in 10 years’ time, we will look back and think, “wow, that was an amazing time to take part in something big”.

What is that “something big”? Perhaps a period of time in which everyone customers and brand owners alike are becoming re-energized about the concept of a brand, as a brand truly become part of one’s existence.

Yes, Pat Boone has an App. He’s proud of his brand he put out good work, even if it is niche-oriented. And yes, maybe his market is declining. But here he is, an icon of the birth of the boomer era, and he’s got enough passion and enthusiasm for his brand to reach out to his brand participants using these fascinating new and powerful tools.

Pat Boone has had his passion for his brand restored. And maybe that is the most important thing that is happening right now. The concept of branding is being re-energized. People care again. We’re out of the era of robots building TV commercials that didn’t resonate, and brand images that didn’t create a sense of awe, and brand images that were simply stuck because of creative failure.

Perhaps that’s the real magic everyone is acquiring a new enthusiasm to do something with brands. If they own a brand, they can be inspired to do something great with it. If they are a customer of a brand, they can be inspired to help to shape the future of the brand more to their own liking through the collective consciousness that is social networking.

The energy and creativity around us is staggering. Continue to jump in, explore, try, do, fail and retry and remember that there is lots yet to learn, since these are early days.

Grab the original article at Scribd!

Does your future suck?

by Jim Carroll

Written for “Content Matters Newsletter, March 2010″, Content Management Corporation

So the big question, of course, is this: is there a future for the meetings and conference industry?

What a silly question!

Of course there is: the fundamental trends that are shaping our future demand that organizations continually deliver regular, short sharp shocks of updated knowledge, and despite all the new fangled technology that surrounds us, many will demand that we continue to do so in human-to-humanget-togethers.

You know what’s fascinating about a recession? We all know how the movie ends: we return to a period of economic growth. What’s also fascinating about recessions is that it provides an opportunity for all the naysayers to suggest that meetings and conferences are going to go virtual, and that we’ll all meet online. Then, when the recovery comes about, we all start scrambling to pull together our events, because people demand a form of non-silicon based networking. There’s nothing like people getting together at a conference for a cold beer or a glass of wine after a long day of sessions: that’s when the real business gets done!

Back during the last recession of 2001-2002, “those in the know” said that this would be the end of meetings and events. I wrote an article in Successful Meetings magazine, ‘Get Real,’ that said no, that wasn’t going to happen. And so from 2003 to 2008, we saw some pretty impressive growth in the industry, followed by an inevitable pullback. Such a cycle will continue.

I’m a futurist, and spend my time providing advice and guidance to some of the largest organizations and associations in the world. And as I futurist, I have to be optimistic about the future. After all, there aren’t a lot of folks who want to hear a futurist come out on stage and say, “Guess what? The future sucks!”

So here’s my belief on what is really going to continue to drive the meetings and event business forward, and why the future doesn’t suck.

We live in a period of ongoing, relentless, fast paced change. I’m dealing with associations who are witnessing the disappearance of traditional careers at the same time that new careers emerge. I deal with companies that are seeing product life cycles collapse due to the furious rates of innovation within every industry today. I’m witnessing companies challenged by new competitors intent on disrupting their business models. I see professionals who realize that the knowledge they need to know to do their job is going out of date at a ridiculous pace, and who realize that the way to the future is to concentrate on developing the capability for just-in-time knowledge.

Given all this change, what do people and organizations need to do? Continually adjust and prepare themselves for a future that will be constantly different, changing faster, with a lot more volatility. That’s going to require a lot more innovation, and certainly the ongoing delivery of a lot more knowledge and information.

And it’s the pace of change that is perhaps the biggest factor at work here. Bill Gates once suggested: “People overestimate the change that will occur on a two year basis, and underestimate the pace of change on a ten year basis.” Add to this the observation by Rupert Murdoch: “The future belongs to those who are fast.”

In essence, successful professionals, associations and companies will be those who can adapt to rapidly evolving trends.

How do we do this? I’m convinced that one of the primary tools will continue to be a get-together where people share insight, strategy, knowledge and tips.

Associations are in a world in which they must help their members adapt to massive, fundamental transformation in their role, scope, function and purpose. I’m a big believer that such transformations can only occur if the membership is given an overwhelming sense of purpose, passion and enthusiasm through the focus that an annual conference provides.

That said, I recently spoke to 4,000 professionals at the annual National Recreation and Parks Association annual conference in Salt Lake City. I challenged the audience — most of them responsible for civic or state recreational activities and park infrastructure — to think about the baseball bat of 2015 or 2020. From my vantage point, it’s going to look the same, but it’s likely to have a variety of sensors built into it that will provide a kid with instant feedback as to the strength and accuracy of their swing; the same sensors will trigger their nearby cell phone to automatically capture a video of their time at the plate.

Far fetched? I don’t think. Weird? To us maybe, but perhaps not to the next generation. As I stressed to the crowd at this event, “When we think of the strangeness of the future and our likely negative reaction to some of what might come next, we have to remember this: it’s not bad, it’s just different.”

The world is going to be different; the role and mandate of the recreation professional is going to be different; the concept of recreation will be transformed. You can read about this in a magazine or see it on Twitter, but it won’t have the same impact as having 4,000 people in a room realizing that their lives are going to change — fast!

Consider medical professionals – it is estimated that medical knowledge is now doubling every eight years, with the result that the vast majority of individuals in any field of medical science are unable to keep up to date with the most recent new treatments and protocols. One study suggests that the typical patient is receiving the most current medical treatment only about 50% of the time. The same holds true in almost every single profession and career, and leads to some significant association challenges, all of which revolve around the ongoing need for continuous knowledge delivery.

Sure, we’ll see more knowledge delivery online; new business models around the conference and event industry; and continued rapid change in the sophistication of online conference tools. And most important, the next generation of silicon-enabled 25 year olds might not think about annual meetings in the same way that their forebears do. But I believe they’ll still go — and as we are seeing now, will make it a far more different and interactive experience. Heck, maybe the beer bottles in their hands will Tweet each other. It’s still beer.

So the bottom line is this: you’ve seen this movie before. You know how it ends. So prepare for the future now, rather than waiting for the full economic recovery to be underway. The winners in the meetings, conventions and conference industry of tomorrow will be those who are willing to be an optimist about the future, as I am!

Last fall, Microsoft invited me to speak at a series of events related to its Windows 7 launch; I’d be addressing C-level executives on the key business strategies organizations are adopting as we come out of the recession.

For the first stop on the tour, Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer spoke to the audience, so I went to hear what he had to say. He certainly stoked enthusiasm for the new Windows 7 product in the manner for which he is known, but he also spoke to the broader plans for Microsoft in the future. One comment about mobile devices stood out: that the reason why Apple is selling so many apps for the iPhone is because generally the browser on the phone isn’t very user friendly.

That’s quite true. I find when I access the Internet on my iPhone the screen resolution seems particularly challenging for these middle-aged eyes. My own website features fonts and a layout that look great on a big monitor but when accessed on an iPhone don’t work very well.

So I decided I should have my own app that features a variety of information found on my regular site. Hence, my voyage into the world of iPhone app development. Apparently it’s a voyage many people are pursuing, with some 80,000 apps already available on the iTunes store.

As I began looking around, I found quite a few artists and entertainers (which I think my career is increasingly evolving into) were releasing iPhone apps. Heck, I even found an app for Pat Boone. That blew my mind.

It was a timely decision: I had already started down the path toward promoting compatibility with the new world of wireless devices by creating a special version of my website uniquely formatted for small screens. I did this in a matter of hours by setting up a WordPress blog; I added to it the iPhone/PDA “theme” that reformats pages to fit within the narrow screen size found on a BlackBerry or iPhone. I then added code to my website that figures out if someone is coming in via such a device: when someone does, it redirects him or her to the mobile version.

It was a bit challenging to get the blog section of my website into the iPhone version – until I found Mippin, that is. This nifty free service automatically formats a blog feed for wireless devices in a matter of seconds. If you have a blog and a PDA, try it out; it is quite a magical service.

Voila. I now had a version of my website that worked well for PDAs. But I thought I still should have an app that is available to people in the iTunes App store. Where to start? A friend put me in touch with iEveryware, an app developer based in California. From there, a phone call led to a cost estimate and within hours, I was on the way to having my own app. It was that fast. Until then, I had thought the process of app development would be some deep secret known to a chosen few. The reality is that there are already thousands of developers out there.

One key step in the process was setting myself up as an Apple iPhone Developer, for a fee of US$99. Once that was done, I was able to register the name Futurist for my app. I registered a few other app names for future use; right now, it seems a little bit like the early days of domain name registration. (Hint, hint.)

As I write this column, I’m actively involved in testing daily updates from the development team as they put together the application; it features a variety of videos within the app itself; access to video feeds from YouTube; direct access to my blog and Twitter feeds and some information resources about innovation and trends. We’re hoping to submit it to Apple shortly; by the time you read this, it should be out there. The cost to develop my app? Just US$995.

All this from hearing Ballmer suggest the experience of browsing the web on an iPhone sucked.

(This article was written in December 2009. The app was submitted December 21, and was approved for release 10 days later!)

More information:

• iEveryware
• Mippin
• Jim Carroll’s iPhone app
• Pat Boone’s app

Here’s an article that just ran that offers some of my thoughts on what’s up with the global meeting and events industry.

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Convene Magazine, January 2010
by Maureen Littlejohn

During 2009, many organizations battened down the hatches and waited for the recession to pass. As we enter the new year – and a new decade – the time for waiting is over. It’s the organizations that keep their eyes peeled for budding opportunities – and are prepared to pounce on them – that will succeed. Convene asked futurist and trends and innovation expert Jim Carroll to identify five emerging megatrends of particular interest to the meetings industry.

1. Faster business-model reinvention – Industries need to listen to what clients want and be able to change without getting bogged down in traditional, time-consuming approval stages or administrative red tape. In the meetings industry, according to Carroll, this means that organizations need to watch for members’ shifting needs and respond quickly. For example, delegates might want more customized options during online registration, or more room to make last-minute confirmations. “The newer model, based on agility and flexibility, is the model that will take many businesses into the future,” Carroll said. “To understand the link between future trends and innovation, you must get into that mindset.”

   Since the economic meltdown, some business procedures have been turned upside-down. Carroll points to the American automobile industry: “The big automakers used to build up their assembly lines to produce 700,000 cars in a year and hope to sell them. Then they would tear the assembly line down a year later and rebuild for the next year’s model. That formula is broken. Honda looks at this week’s consumer demands, sees what is working, and can tear down and rebuild the assembly line in 10 days.”

   Carroll said that organizations seeking an edge over their competitors are motivated to mess up their rivals’ business models. “Before that happens [to you], you should mess it up yourself, so that you better control the endgame. Technology has and will play a huge role in business-model transformation, and your infrastructure has to be up to the task,” he said.

2. Rapid ingestion of new technologies – Companies must stay current with technology, especially in the delivery of services, Carroll said. “There’s going to be a huge amount of adaptation as the tsunami of technology continues unabated,” he said. “An example would be in retail, where there will be a rapid transition to cell-phone-based payment technology. Credit-card companies need to stay on top of this. Winners will be able to transition at the speed of Silicon Valley. The leaders will be those who continue to find operational innovation in ways they had not thought of before.”The lesson for meeting planners? Integrate the latest technologies into the meeting’s infrastructure by partnering with technologically up-to-the-minute companies, Carroll said. Planners need to be early adopters of technologies at every stage of the meeting – prior to, during, and after the face-to-face event. This includes everything from promoting the meeting to Web sites, to offering the latest technology-enabled services to delegates on site, to gathering metrics and following up after the event.
3. Faster knowledge requirements – Carroll believes that “the future belongs to those who are fast.” Organizations need to get smart quicker. “There are a tremendous number of new companies and new industries being built around the high velocity of ideas that surround us – which is increasing the pace of business startups,” Carroll said. “New ideas continue to be explored, markets grow, and industries emerge as rapid innovation occurs in health care, agriculture, and countless other fields. It’s all about rapid science – and exponential knowledge growth – leading to faster discovery of the next thing.”That translates into the need for meetings to deliver more education, to be seen as “knowledge events.” Carroll said: “This can take the form of short-term, high-level management meetings where the intent is to do things differently. Rapid ingestion of knowledge is needed by sales forces, management, and associations. Face-to-face education, done off site, will continue to be very effective. Networking is important for relationships and learning, especially human bonding with beer at 5 p.m. That’s when participants are willing to share tips and ideas.”
4. Rapid partnerships – Social networking is the best way to form more successful partnerships in a short amount of time, according to Carroll. “This way, people with expertise can be brought in to help work out the problems on new projects,” he said. “Teams that are gathered rapidly and work quickly are critical to solving problems and achieving success.”
5. End of the “AIG effect” – This, Carroll believes, is the biggest trend. “It is silly to think we shouldn’t go to meetings,” he said. “It’s time to beat back the hysteria. In Las Vegas, where so many workers were laid off, it’s had an effect. Politicians are paying attention and realizing they were shooting themselves in the foot by discouraging meetings.”Carroll predicts that 2010 will usher in a return to long-term thinking. “Companies and associations will be making plans and strategizing how to reach goals in the next two to 10 years,” he said, adding, “To that end, I’ve noticed an increased demand in my services as a futurist. We’re all coming back with a vengeance.”

Convene Magazine is the official publication of the Professional Convention Management Association.

In their December 2009 issue, they have part 2 of their annual technology forecast : how will technology continue to shake up the meetings and convention industry.

My prediction focuses on the impact of location intelligence on the industry; here’s what I wrote:

With the meeting and convention industry still all abuzz about the impact of Twitter, a far more dramatic and far-reaching trend is soon upon us, with the impact of what has come to be known as location intelligence.

Let’s put it this way: in the next several years, many of the things that surround us in our daily lives will become linked into the ever pervasive network. I often joke on stage that one day I’ll get on my weigh scale, and it will proceed to send an email to my fridge if I happen to skew in terms of weight gain.

This trend is unfolding now: in my home and ski chalet, I have thermostats that have their own Web page and Internet connectivity. Link that trend to mobile applications, and we’re not too far away from a day when my iPhone might sense that I’m getting close to home, and will turn the heat on automatically.

What does this have to do with the future of meetings? We’re entering an era where delegates cell phones will sense when friends are nearby, and will spontaneously organize a social get-together. Planners will use applications which will pull together spur-of-the-moment topic sessions when a certain number of attendees fitting a profile approach a particular room. We’ll have automatic, interactive maps that will help us track the flow of folks through a trade show floor, giving us the opportunity to dynamically adjust the layout to better steer the crowd toward a key sponsors booth.

Location intelligence is likely the biggest of the many waves that are already impacting the industry — and it will be here sooner than you think.

It’s a timely topic. I’ll be the keynote speaker for the International Association of Conference Centers annual conference in March 2010, speaking to the trends that will impact this all-important industry.

More information:

• Convene Magazine technology predictions
• IACC 2010″ with a keynote by Jim Carroll

The feedback on my Salt Lake City keynote for the National Recreation and Parks Association continues; earlier in this story, I had a blog entry from a message from someone at the event thanking me for “changing lives.”

The Past President of the NRPA has weighed in with an editorial in Perspectives, the NRPA’s national magazine. Headlined “Anticipating the Future,” Jodie Adams has this to say (excerpted).

Last month I saw the future, and it was exciting. Granted, it was one person’s version of what parks and recreation may look like a decade from now, but the view is compelling. At NRPA’s Congress last month in Salt Lake City, renowned futurist Jim Carroll outlined key areas where professionals and citizen advocates can expect to see major changes in the field. We chose Carroll as keynote speaker for our opening session as a way to crystallize the conference theme, “Prepare for the Future Today.” Virtually each of his points held importance for our field. Even the best speakers quote others, and Carroll’s quote by media magnate Rupert Murdoch spoke volumes about how we pursue our mission.

“The future will not be about big beating small, but fast beating slow.”

And nowhere is this message more applicable than to the young people entering our field. Considering that they are in large part a product of the Internet Age- infinite choices at lightning speed in interconnected ways- it’s no wonder they view work differently today. Carroll’s statistics point this out- 65 percent of preschoolers today will pursue careers that do not exist today. For those entering the held today, two to five years is a long-term career. When you’re interviewing them today, realize that they are looking right through you. two thirds of them say they are actually thinking about their next job and not the one for which you are interviewing them.

Because young professionals are increasingly more demanding in terms of flexibility, recognition, and loyalty, senior administrators must also think in these terms. It’s a sure bet they reflect the views and values of the citizens they will eventually be serving. As Carroll pointed out, we can expect entirely new sports and activities to come at us faster and faster, while “old” sports will evolve in similar ways. Characteristic of a generation fully wired with itself, Carroll only half kiddingly pictured snowboards with embedded chips and webcams that communicate a good run down a mountain to the friends and family of its user.

As Carroll explained, if you are not preparing for the “next economy,” you’re way too late.

More information:

• Video: Location intelligence and the future of recreation
• Blog entry “Thanks for changing lives! A note from the NRPA Congress…” by Jim Carroll
• Blog entry The future of snowboarding and skiing by Jim Carroll

Shaping Tomorrow is one of the world’s leading trend watching services, observing on its home page that:

“We help 13,284 people and organisations anticipate, and respond to, how we will live”. Find opportunities for growth, discover new solutions, conduct risk and intelligence assessments, make strategic choices, plan and act on decisions, construct scenarios and join our global innovation and foresight network.

A tremendous number of global organizations use Shaping Tomorrow to track future trends. In line with that, the group has just launched a speakers bureau to provide its clients with the additional insight they need to deal with a high velocity economy.

I was asked to write an article for the launch of the site, and it is featured on the home page for Shaping Tomorrow Future Voices.

In “Our Brightest Minds — and the Strategic Value of Thought Leadership Speakers”, I make several observations that outline the role I play in increasing numbers of organizations today:

Steering an organization into the future is often akin to navigating a ship. You can only get so much momentum, and when it is necessary to take a change in direction, it takes a lot of time for the turn to take effect.

That’s where the role of a high profile futurist with a track record comes in. We help you to steer the ship.

I spend my time with a large number of global Fortune 1000 organizations, associations and government bodies. I’m often called in by a CEO or other member of senior management to achieve one particular goal: to help to place emphasis on the issues, challenges and opportunities that the organization faces in the future. In many cases, senior management knows what needs to be done; but being aware of the art of leadership, they also know that they must carefully lead their team through what are often, significant mindset changes.

The leadership team — including you — knows that they need to wake their people up, shake them out of their complacency, and give them a clear understanding that they had better start thinking about the future — and fast — in order to keep up with high velocity change. And perhaps, if they are lucky, stay one step ahead of everyone else.

That’s what we do. We’ve chosen a career path that has us assisting organizations in making the transition into the future. I’ve been doing this for well over fifteen years.

You can read the full article online.

More information:

• Read Our Brightest Minds — and the Strategic Value of Thought Leadership Speakers

There’s no doubt that one of the biggest issues facing the planet and its inhabitants in the coming decades is how we treat the dual challenges of energy and the environment. For years, I’ve been advising my clients about one of the biggest trends related to these two issues: the rapid emergence of an intelligent energy infrastructure. It’s happening now – all around you – and the implications are pretty huge in terms of economic growth. The big question is, what role can accountants play as this infrastructure builds?

From a high level, the trend unfolding is that we will be able to more directly and individually control how we use energy resources, giving each of us ways to reduce our own environmental footprint.

We’re seeing small steps already today: for example, I just bought the new IP Thermostat app for my iPhone; it provides instant access to the two Internet-enabled Proliphix thermostats in my home and ski chalet/cottage. (I could link to my thermostats before via a web page, but IP Thermostat makes it seamless and fast.) The technology allows me to actively manage my energy consumption and better manage my environmental footprint. A world in which hundreds of millions of people are doing the same thing would put a serious dent into heating and air-conditioning usage.

Such devices are just a small example of a number of major trends that will lead to more of this type of connectivity becoming mainstream. For example, major industrial players are adding intelligence to the next generation of commercial, industrial and residential heating, ventilation and air-conditioning equipment, to allow for remote monitoring, management and rapid response to out-of-norm operations.

The advent of the “smart grid” – an electrical system that operates on a more efficient, cost-effective basis through the use of information technology – is another example. It’s not all hype; Cisco recently suggested that the connectivity component of energy infrastructure will be worth more than US$100 billion over five years. That’s some serious spending.

And if we consider the new role of analytics, in that such connectivity will allow consumers and users to better understand their usage, and allow more intelligent demand.

The Positive Energy initiative, for example, encourages hydro utilities to send out electrical bills that compare your usage to that of your neighbours. If you’re efficient, you get some smiley faces on your bill. If not, you get some images that would encourage you to do better. It’s a unique, simple idea, and yet it provides a glimpse into where we can go in the future if we allow people to take a more analytical, deeper view of how they use energy, and hence, impact the environment.

Imagine that as we build this intelligent, connected energy system we can provide tools allowing consumers to further manage their household energy use. For example, software tools could allow them to query an energy provider for details on how well their fridge was operating compared to neighbourhood norms, how much they could save by purchasing a more efficient microwave, or how much money they are losing by postponing that oil change on their 10-year-old hyper-connected car.

We know that everything around us is beginning to plug into the cloud.

There might be unique opportunities to consider how we can maximize the potential for insight as this occurs.

One of the columns I write on a regular basis is for CAMagazine, which goes to about 100,000 professional chartered accountants. My big secret? Despite the fact that I spend my time advising some of the biggest organizations in the world on strategies for innovation and creativity, I’m also a professional accountant. I spent some 12 years way back in the 1980′s with one of the world’s largest professional services firm.

My June column is out — and it talks about the challenge of trying to reconcile the emerging demands for more financial disclosure with the short attention spans that come with the Twitter era.

You can access the full article below; but here’s a few excerpts:

We stand at a seminal moment – a crossroads as it were – between what we might call the new age of disclosure and the new era of inattention.

….we will see all kinds of new rules and regulations within the financial sector and beyond, including most of the business world. Let there be no doubt, in the year to come we will witness a new, onerous set of regulations surrounding financial disclosure….

On the other hand, while we ponder an emerging need for more detailed disclosure, media reports seem to indicate that the general populace is rushing off to Twitter-ize itself.

So here’s the thing: to satisfy the demands of angry investors, the typical 10Q and SEDAR filings will have to quadruple in size, if not more. Pretty soon, a typical public company will need to file several thousand pages of disclosure documents to keep up with regulations. Financial statement footnotes will become complicated enough to deserve their own dead tree. An army of accountants will find itself dedicated to the cause of digging deeper with every single sentence.

At the same time, the audience for whom these lengthy documents are targeted is concentrating on writing 140-character texts.

So, the big question is, what is the relevancy of accountancy in the Twitter era?

Might you instead find yourself one day writing a financial disclosure that goes like this: Qlfd opn’n. Gng Cncrn vr m2m vln on unreal(dude!)ized rvnu.

If you understand that, then your brain synapses have shrunk enough to fit the speed of information in the modern age.

Read the article Accountancy in the Twitter era

My latest CAMagazine article is out.

In January, I was invited to address a group of CIO’s and CFO’s from some of the world’s largest insurance companies — a pretty heavy duty crowd. My challenge? Get them away from focusing just on the here-and-now, and think a bit about some of the challenges that tomorrow will present.

Part of my voyage took them into a view of what their industry might look like ten years out. Here’s a few extracts:

Are you ready to open up your accounting and financial systems to the Facebook generation? In 10 years, that won’t seem like a silly question. But even today, it’s an issue you should think about

In the next few years, we are likely to enter the world of the “accounting mashup,” in which customers, suppliers and business partners start to interact with you through online widgets. As this happens, you’ll discover new business models that will provide sales opportunities, streamline customer support and reduce operating costs.

Young people entering the workforce are able to instantly and easily reshape information so that it is more accessible, shareable and far more interesting. They’ve taken to the world of music and video and have learned how to reassemble bits and pieces into something new.

My favourite music mashup, from years ago, came from a DJ group known as The Kleptones. Their “A Night at the Hip-Hopera” remix took a swath of music from Queen, wrapped it around other sounds and songs, all in a story about early attempts by the music industry to shut down music sharing.

So what does this have to do with accounting? Who is to say that the Facebook generation isn’t going to look at the Best Buy Remix idea and rethink the whole concept of an accounting system in light of that? Why would we expect them to sit in front of a boring web browser, reviewing data on a boring ERP screen? Why would we not consider the possibility that they might write a tool that gets things done in a different way?

Predicting the future often involves the extrapolation of current trends. Given that mashups are a big part of youth culture, it shouldn’t be surprising that we’ll find the concept making its way into business in the next several years. Get ready!

More information

• Read the full article They’ll spice up your systems

Association Magazine has published my article, Metamorphosis: A Defining Success Factor for Associations.

A huge number of my keynote presentations are for professional, industry, trade or other associations. All of them are faced with some serious challenges — a decline in membership, an inability to maintain their relevance, or a lack of capability to innovate in terms of program delivery.

The article takes a look at the obvious trends which are to impact associations in the years to come. I don’t hold back any punches, opening with these words:

We know we live in a world in which new trends change everything we know at a furious pace. Rapid change envelopes us, consumes us, and pounds us with its reminders of its urgency every single day. There are many obvious trends that impact us; we often refuse or are incapable of assessing their impact.

And so the future marches on, and many associations remain stuck in a rut of complacency. They deliver the same old program. They focus on the same old issues, generate the same old knowledge, plan the same old conference, and have their agenda managed by the same old membership has-beens.

Meanwhile, they bemoan the fact that membership is declining; that the Millenials seem to have little time or inclination to join them; and that the world is just becoming, well, too complex to deal with.

So they form a committee, hire a consultant, study the issue, and lull themselves into a false sense of future-security.

By doing so, they are almost guaranteeing themselves a march into oblivion.

This article is a must read for any association executive today. Quite often, the trends that will impact us are right in front of us. This article puts those trends into perspective. In doing so, it provides a good framework as to how to start some innovative thinking in order to deal with those trends.

Read the articles

• Metamorphosis: A Defining Success Factor for Associations
• Are you prepared for the new role associations will play

My blog post of a few weeks ago caught the attention of the folks at the Canadian Society of Association Executives — and so I quickly rewrote it to challenge their members to think about the role of “associations in the future.”

The April issue of the Advertiser magazine (“The Voice of the Marketing Community”) from the Association of National Advertisers features an article, “Five Secrets for Creating a Culture of Innovation.”

I’m quoted in the article with two key observations, on the issue of “taking risks and learning from them.” My concerns?

• “…he sees too much ‘bandwagon innovation” in marketing these days. Consider the rush by brands to launch viral videos on YouTube. ‘That’s not what innovation is … it’s admitting that everything we do — how we are marketing to the customer, what the brand means to the customer, and what we do to update uniqueness and freshness of brand — has to constantly change because everything around us is constantly changing.”
• I also talk to the importance of taking risks: “CMO’s who aren’t afraid to focus on ‘experiential capital’, as Carroll calls it, or encourage innovative thinking by taking calculated risks, regardless of the outcome, stand a better chance of being successful over the long run.

It’s a good article: there’s no doubt that the high velocity economy results in rapid change of consumer brand perceptions. Leading edge marketers work hard to beef up their innovation capabilities simply in order to keep up with consumers who are charging forward at a furious pace!

More information

• Read What a great idea!
• Why bandwagon innovation doesn’t work
• Is your brand from the olden days?

Gloom has set in on global markets. Volatility rages. Some organizations have gone into a mode of “aggressive indecision,” deferring action while they try to figure out “what comes next.” A pretty lousy strategy that is doomed to fail in the longer term.

Future oriented leaders understand the reality of growth. They know that we live in a time in which opportunities for growth abound. They’ve aligned the mission of the organization so that they are capitalizing on real opportunity, not short term economic challenges.

Growth is everywhere.

It’s easy during a time of economic volatility to lose sight of where the global economy is really headed. Yet while stock markets might rock, innovation thrives.

New ideas continue to be explored, markets grow, and industries emerge. A variety of trends indicate that opportunities for growth continue to surround us.

Read this document to get in the right frame of mind for the future…..and think growth. Think opportunity. Innovate for future, don’t stagnate with the past.

Download Where’s the Growth? Global Innovation Opportunities for the Long Term

MBI PDF

Years ago, I wrote of the need for a new type of business degree: a Masters in Business Imagination. I’ve also called it a Masters in Business Innovation.

I wrote an article around the theme, and it remains one of the most heavily trafficked pages on my site. I’ve wrapped it up in a PDF : feel free to read it, share it, distribute it, and encourage people to think about it.

It opens with these observations: “COMPLACENCY In a time of rapid, disruptive change can be a death sentence – not only for organizations, but for the careers and skills of those who work there!

It’s time to abandon the thinking that has had you anchored firmly to the past – and to shift your focus to the future, with enthusiasm, motivation andimagination.

You can do this by abandoning any pretense that the skills of yesterday will be important tomorrow. Figuratively and literally, it is time to move beyond the thinking that has led us to a world of MBA’s – Masters of Business Administration – and focus upon the critical skill that will take you into tomorrow.

The world doesn’t need more administrators. It needs more MBI’s – Masters of Business Imagination!

• Access The Masters of Business Imagination PDF

Career issues are hot! And one of my favorite ways to open a keynote or executive session is by quoting from an Australian study, which indicated that sixty-five percent of the kids who are in preschool today will work in jobs or careers that don’t yet exist.

I passionately believe this to be true: and I’ve seen the trend occurring in countless professions and industries.

This week, I keynoted a Career Day event at Capitol One in Richmond, Virginia ; the focus was on the rapid emergence of new careers, and the rapid evolution of existing skills. My message, in looking at the future career opportunities, was that there’s nothing but upside, as long as people keep reinventing their skill set.

The topic of the future of careers is a big one these days; I’m being called into many organizations and events to talk about the issue, particularly in the context of recent economic trends. Some of these events have been local economic development conferences. In one talk in January, I spoke to an audience of executives and educators in an auto-sector city ; a group of people caught up in the throes of economic restructuring and turmoil.

Talk about an audience in the midst of challenge! Yet when you are in that type of economic bubble, it can be hard to see the future career opportunities that do exist. That’s why I didn’t focus on the short term economic turmoil, but instead, on the real, practical trends that are defining the careers of tomorrow.

Many sectors of the global economy: and in particular, the manufacturing and financial sectors, are being hit hardest by the US recession, the sub-prime meltdown, and global competition.

The auto-town event got covered in the local paper: and the story ended up being reprinted throughout the Canadian press, including in Vancouver, Calgary, Ottawa and Montreal. One of the key observations I made in the article: “We have to figure out how we can continue to move up the knowledge ladder because there’s going to be a massive shortfall in specialized skills because of the rapid growth of knowledge.”

That’s an important issue to think about, and the article is well worth a read.

More information:

• Read Knowledge Explosion Key to the Future
• Read Global Economic Trends: An Interview with Jim Carroll
• The reality of future trends: grab the What Comes Next trends overview

Credit Suisse, headquartered in Zurich, is global financial powerhouse operating in 50 countries; 48,000+ employees, assets of $75 billion US, and net assets under management of $1.345 trillion.

They’ve just released their 2008 Bulletin magazine, a publication provided to key investment banking, private banking and asset management clients worldwide.

They’ve include a fairly lengthy Q&A with me, in an article titled Success Comes to Those Who Evolve, in which they wanted wide-ranging views on the word “growth.” It came out well: my key message has always been that we must always link the concept of innovation to rapidly emerging trends in order to constantly change what we do — often simply to keep up, or attain competitive advantage.

Here’s the key point: So what’s the recipe to kick-start innovative thinking? I think it’s about having your entire organization understand everybody is responsible for constantly figuring out how they need to change to keep up with the rapidly changing world. They need leadership that supports and encourages them to be open and share ideas, and that leadership needs to hammer home that message on a regular basis.“

More information

• Read: Success Comes to Those Who Evolve

One of my latest columns focuses on what will likely be the corporate issue of 2008 – managing generational challenges in the workplace.

In the column, “Here we are now, entertain us,” I take a look at the unique attitudes that Gen-Connect is now starting to bring in to the workplace. There are several key observations from the article that are critical to understanding the future of the workforce:

• What is clear is that we are witnessing the death of the long-term career and corporate loyalty, which will soon be but a quaint memory from the previous century.
• I often tell the story of a young engineering graduate who turned down a job with an architectural firm because its 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. work hours conflicted with the time he expected to be carving arcs into deep powder in the mountains. It’s a real attitude, and it’s already happening around us. The challenge, when such trends are so patently obvious, is trying to figure out what to do about it. And a good part of the solution will come through the transformation of rewards and remuneration.
• Gen-connect has very little patience, particularly when it comes to being rewarded for good work or significant effort. These youngsters are used to instant rewards: their Xbox/Wii video-game-oriented world has them accomplishing a goal, moving up a level, and earning some points or other valuable form of currency that helps them accumulate additional armour, weapons or whatever else is needed to accomplish the game’s next challenge.
• That’s why, at a recent conference, I framed the issue of rewards transformation to an audience of financial professionals this way: “Organizations that can attract, engage, retain and amuse an increasingly complex workforce will be the ones who find success in the rapidly evolving global economy.”
• Put the emphasis on the word amuse. Today’s Gen Y doesn’t, and tomorrow’s Gen-connect certainly won’t, have any patience whatsoever for slow and steady career paths.

Related postings:

Article: Here We are Now, Entertain Us

Related article: Don’t Mess with My Powder, Dude!

Keynote topic: What’s Happening with Our Workforce: Achieving Competitive Advantage Through Skills Agility

Critical Trends Analysis: 10 Unique Characteristics of 21st Century Skills

As we end the year and start a new one, it’s a good time to be thinking about some of the trends and issues which will impact us in the future.

Take a look at my newly released quick-report, What Comes Next: A Trends Perspective for 2008 and Beyond.

My message for my clients throughout the year – whether it was 2,000 executives at the World Congress for Quality, or the senior management team of one of the largest commercial construction companies in the US — was consistent. The high-velocity economy demands that we think, react, plan and manage differently.

Some of the guidance I shared with global clients concerning future trends is found in the report; I highlight what I think are some of the most important ones that we need to be thinking about, broadly defined as:

• revenge of the math geeks
• small is the new R&D
• attitude and amusement is the new motivation
• time disappears
• resistance to change retires
• careers end
• knowledge & skills banks dominate
• interactivity redefines markets

It’s an Adobe Acrobat document; feel free to grab it, share it, and distribute it!

I prepared the document on a MacBook Pro — I made the switch from Windows this year! — using the TokyoRPG Style Template for iWork 2007 Pages from KeynotePro. They have awesome styles for Pages and Keynote; if you’re an OS/X and iWork user, take a look.

• Grab the What Comes Next PDF now
• Learn more about iWork Themes from KeynotePro