Revisiting the future
For a while, it wasn't trendy to think about the future. Now that's over -- I'm noticing that companies are scrambling to try to understand the trends and issues that will affect them into the future.
That's good -- because we continue to function in a world in which the rate of change is speeding up, not slowing down. Organizations can't afford to take their eyes off the change occurring within their markets, with their customers, with their industry, and with the world around them.
That's where I fit in -- I've become widely recognized by groups such as the US Department of Defense, the American Federation of Teachers, SAP, the American Payroll Association, the North American Newsprint Papers Association, CBS/Infinity Broadcasting, Nortel and many others as someone who can effectively relate existing trends to future opportunities and challenges.
A few weeks back I undertook an exhaustive full day workshop with a major credit union in New York State, taking a look at how future trends will affect financial services, and leading an interactive discussion with the Board of Directors as to the business strategies they should be thinking about.
During the session, I took an indepth look at a wide variety of trends and issues -- demographic trends; ethnic cultural trends; social/cultural issues; political issues; the future of the workforce and corporate structure; geographic and "smart community" trends; technology and other trends....and put it all into a story as to how financial services will be impacted well into the future.
The session was a good example of how I've become a noted futurist and trends expert -- how I relate current trends to future opportunities. I provide detailed insight into current trends using statistics, reports, studies and hard data, as well as formal and informal observation, and then use that to paint a picture of competitive challenges, opportunity, market change and other realities of the future. There's a tremendous amount of original research and fresh thinking that goes into every presentation and workshop.
A very good example had to do with the discussion that I led concerning the ongoing Latinization of society --- and a survey I used which indicated that while most Hispanics (now 13% of the population, soon to be 18%) are comfortable speaking English for most day to day activities, they are not when it comes to financial services. Closely related to this is that Hispanics are by and large outside the traditional financial system -- only 65% have bank accounts, and they remit some $30 billion per month to relatives in their home countries -- outside of traditional financial networks.
Trend? We are already starting to see a massive focus in the financial sector related to the ongoing ethnicization of society. Consider this -- the Bank of America stated at their recent annual meeting that 80% of their growth is going to come from ethnic markets/marketing -- think about that! The future? Expect massive focus within financial services -- among other markets -- on niche marketing activities related to the ethnicization of society, moreso than we have already seen today. The Hispanic market is but one example of where a major ethnic change is sweeping society.
Another trend I spoke about -- the "boomerang generation." These are the kids of today who have gone off to school, graduated, and have come back home. One British survey shows that 1 in 4 parents now expects that they will be supporting their kids into their 40's. Not the parents 40's -- their kids! Another study out of Australia demonstrated that the family unit has changed to such a degree -- mom, dad, grown kids *and* grandparents all within the same area, that the marketing of financial services is changing to recognize that. Fact is, the kids ain't leaving -- the family is becoming more extended than ever before -- and there are customer marketing, service, loan and transaction opportunities here ... particularly as the baby boom generation continues to age, and as the largest wealth transfer in history occurs, with $30 trillion passing from one generation to the next.
My days are spent thinking and harvesting through a huge amount of research material, all of which feeds into my presentation and workshops. This one was a fascinating presentation/workshop and is indicative of the future, trend and innovation presentations that I've become known for. [ link ]
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" I don't think the marketing world has figured it out yet"
I'm quoted in a ComputerWorld artilce this week, Blogs Bubble Into Business. The points I raise were discussed in an earlier article I wrote about the topic. As I comment in ComputerWorld, "....everyone out there is too darned terrified to try anything new right now..." which is a shame, because weblog software can have big impact in terms of marketing, sales and customer support and loyalty. [ link ]
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Interview on significance of VoIP (Voice over Internet protocol)
You can catch a clip with me on the CBC National Business show talking about Voice-over-IP and what it means. Interestingly enough, this call was done through an Internet phone, using the Vonage service. here, in RealAudio format. [ link ]
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VoIP is the Napster of the telecom industry
I had a busy week last week -- a full day workshop on e-government, and a board of directors strategy session for a New York state credit union. So this weekend, I decided to stay up at our ski cottage a few extra days to catch up on some work, and to get a few runs in.
I brought along my Voice-over-Internet box from Vonage, plugged it into my high speed Internet connection at our ski cottage -- and I've got phone service via the Internet ... despite the fact I'm sort of in the middle of no-where.
VoIP is the Napster of the telecom industry -- it is going to tear apart business models, cause job and career upheaval, increase competition -- and generally change everything. Here I am on the shores of Georgian Bay on Lake Huron, working away, and I've got a New York City telephone number via the Internet. Fascinating.
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What took Intel so long?
New York Times: "Intel to Invest $200 Million in Home Media NetworkingSAN FRANCISCO, Jan. 6 - The Intel Corporation said on Tuesday that it planned to invest $200 million in start-up companies that are creating digital home entertainment technology that could eventually reach nearly every American household."
We've been there in this home for almost half a decade or more, with thousands of (bought, converted from CD) MP3's on a file server in the home, 13,000 digital photos, and a new project digitizing all of our home video. My sons, now 8 and 10, have never really known CD's -- they simply pull music off of a computer in one of many rooms. I've often joked that indeed, they think CD's are from the "olden days." I've been writing articles and articles about this for years.
Why does it take so long for Intel and others to clue in that people want home connectivity? This is *the* big consumer market for the next decade, so it is nice to see them finally *getting it*
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My 15th year of working at home
At the end of the work day today -- at 4pm -- I met my youngest son at school. We then proceeded to go and start flooding our neighborhood rink -- and then proceeded to start to build a "bob-sled run" in the backyard. We've got a major freeze coming in to eastern North America in the next week, and it's a great time to make some ice!
While doing this, I realized that 2004 marks the start of the 15th year in which I've been working in a home office. That's a long time. I still get in my 8 or 9 hours a day -- and sometimes more. I've learned lots of rules about how to successfully do it.
The real benefit is life-balance, particularly in the relationship with my family. After all, it's a very unique experience -- when my first son went to school some years back, we had to explain to him that most mommies and daddies went out to work every day! He thought that was weird -- because in his mind, every mommy and daddy worked at home! He'd never known anything different... (my wife has been working with me at home for 9 of these years)
15 years. That's a long time. But it has been worth every single minute.
Here's to the next 15!!!
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