10 Great Words for 2006

Five years ago, I didn't know how to ski. Well, I had skiied a bit as a kid, but never really picked it up. Then my wife and I decided after 9/11 that skiing would be a wonderful way to deal with all the new uncertainty in the world.

So we took it up, and it has become a huge part of my life ever since. We've actually become quite good at it, skiing most weekends throughout the winter at the private club to which we belong. And this January 2006, when I head off to keynote the Swiss Innovation Forum outside of Zurich, I'm likely to spend some time on the hills.

Which just goes to show that you truly can accomplish something wonderful at any stage in your life! And if there is a word to describe what I've done, it's persevere; at times, I thought I might barely make it down the hill, but I kept on trying until I mastered it!

Words which provide simple insight and motivation are great. Which brings me to the 10 Great Words for 2006. Last year, I ran my list of "10 Great Words for 2005", and these became a huge hit, reprinted in dozens of articles and conference handouts. I use those words on stage in my keynotes all the time -- they've become an integral part of what I do.

To continue on my theme, here's my 10 Great Words and Trends for 2006

• Adapt: Change is happening faster than ever before. Accept that, adapt to it, and go with the flow. It makes everything a lot easier.

• Flex : In times of rapid change, agility is a critical skill. Develop flexibility in attitude, skills and capability in order to thrive.

• Experience: There's a lot you don't know. Enhance your knowledge and experience by doing all the things you've never done before.

• Create: Stop managing things, and create things instead. Focus on doing things that make a difference, rather than trying to make a difference with what you've done before.

• Focus: You can't master all the knowledge there is to know, nor can you do everything you want to do. Do what you do well, and figure out new ways of doing the rest.

• Partner: Deal with rapid change and complexity by seeking partners who can help you accomplish what needs to be done.

• Shift: Far too many people view the future with fear rather than thinking about opportunity. Shift your focus to fridges, and you'll find that opportunity becomes clearer.

• Imagine: Innovators don't make a difference by redoing the status quo -- they accomplish great things by being different. And they don't constrain their difference with traditional thinking: they simply think differently.

• Start: You've probably been holding off on doing the one thing you always wanted to try to do. Drop the stop now, and begin doing it. Innovators succeed through momentum, and momentum comes from doing.

• Enjoy: People who approach things with passion and purpose live a compelling life. Find your spark, and light it!
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My own top 10 blog posts

Here's a quickl list of what I think were some of the best posts to this often sporadic blog through the year.

1. Change: Deal with it: this little fellow still cracks me up.
   
   
2. The infinite idea loop: the future is faster. Even Fortune covered this posting. A compelling 3 minute watch, if you really want to understand how the future is evolving.
   
   
3. The Masters of Business Imagination Manifesto: FastCompany picked up on my MBI Manifesto found in this post. It got so much attention, it has become the focus of my next book, due out in 2006.
   
   
4. It's in to be out!": Too much fun earlier this year when I met with the editors of O (Oprah Magazine), Elle, Family Circle, Parenting, InStyle, Cosmopolitan, Working Mother, American Baby, Soap Opera Weekly, Woman's Day, Glamor, Teen Vogue, Seventeen, Good Housekeeing, Family Circle and about 40 other national trade magazines, in New York City! Covering off my list of outdoor trends.....on behalf of a major client.
   
   
5. Frogs in Texas reviews: After all that work in bringing out a new book, it gets some great reviews and momentum throughout 2005.
   
   
6. The Tiniest Warrior of All: My wife and I published, through out publishing company Oblio Press, a very important, powerful and emotional book.
   
   
7. 10 Signs You've Got an Innovation Dysfunction: How can you tell if you've got problems? Read the list .... Fortune covered this one.
   
   
8. Creativity, trends and innovation in retail, packaging and consumer goods …: I've done a huge number of talks in almost every industry and profession in the last decade, talking as a futurist about future trends. I've got a huge number of trends floating around in my head and in my materials, and I'm trying to use the blog to capture alot of them after a major keynote. This post is a good example.
   
   
9. "The concept of going to school for knowledge is kind of quaint...": A quick article that stirred up a fair bit of controversy. I don't believe anything I said here to be untrue.
   
   
10. 10 More Ways to Instill Innovation: A followup to the innovation dysfunction post above.
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10 Big Trends for Agriculture

I've got a number of keynotes coming up in the New Year focused on the agricultural sector, and have done quite a few in the past.

I'm preparing for a series of events at the end of February, and now is a good time as ever to put up a list of what I see happening.

1. Massive growth in food demand: The UK Food and Agriculture Association estimates that the world population will increase 47%, to 8.9 billion, by 2050. That's a potentially huge food marketplace. That fact, more than anything, spells the reality that the agricultural industry is full of potential opportunity!
   
2. A continuing rampup in efficiency: Simple fact: global agriculture must double in the next 30 years to sustain this type of population growth. Add this reality check: there is little new arable land in the world. The result is that existing producers will have to continue to focus on smarter, better, more efficient growing in order to meeting demand.
   
3. Hyper-science: One of the realities of the infinite idea loop in which we now find ourselves is this: while there are 19 million known chemical substances today, the number is constantly doubling every 13 years… with some 80 million by 2025, and 5 billion by 2100. Science is evolving at a furious pace, and with science at the root of agriculture, we will continue to see constant, relentless new methods of improving crop and livestock yield.
   
4. Innovation defines success: Growers that focus on innovation as a core value will find success; their innovation will focus on the triple-feature need for growth, efficiency and ingestion of new science. It will be by adopting new methodologies, products, partnerships and ideas that they will learn to thrive.
   
5. Retail and packaging innovation drive agricultural decisions: Do this: stare at a banana. Did you know that Chiquita banana has come up with a special membrane that doubles the shelf-life of the product, doing this regulating the flow of gases through the packaging? Take a look at Naturepops: each lollipop is wrapped in fully bio-degradable film made from plant matter, and the bags they come in are made from recycled paper, water-based ink and poly lactic acid made from cornstarch. There's a huge amount of innovation happening with packaging companies and on the store shelf, and all of these trends have a big impact on agriculture.
   
6. Intelligent packaging moves front and center: Innovation with packaging will take an even bigger leap in years to come, and will involve hyperconnectivity, a trend that will be driven by food safety, tracability, country of origin and nutrition labelling needs. Our lives are soon to be transformed by packaging that can "connect" to the global data grid that surrounds us; and its' role will have been transformed from being that of a "container of product" to an intelligent technology that will help us with use of the product, or which will help us address safety and tracability issues.
   
7. The energy opportunity: Agriculture is set to play a huge role as we wean ourselves away from our dependence on oil and natural gas. The US Department of Energy plans to see alternative fuels provide 5% of the nations energy by 2020, up from 1% today. And it is expected that there will be $1.2 billion in new income for farmers and rural landowners by getting involved with new energy sources such as windpower. Europe plans to have a market that involves at least 20% usage of bio-fuels by 2020, and Feed & Grain estimates that liquid fuels from agricultural feed could replace 25% to 30% of US petroleum imports by that time.
   
8. Convenience and health take center stage: We will continue to see rapid change in consumer taste and expectations as people comes to place more emphasis or doing their best with the little time that they have. For example, it is expected that fresh-cut snacks grew from an $8.8 billion market in 2003 to $10.5 billion by 2004, according to the International Fresh-Cut Produce Association, as part of a trend in which produce and fruit continue to compete with traditional snacks. Expect such unique trends to growth both in terms of number and rapidity.
   
9. Direct consumer-producer relationships blossom: As this technology evolves and as people become more concerned about the safety of what they eat, a natural result is a frenetic rate of growth in direct relationships between growers and consumers. Check out SouthDakotaCertifiedBeef -- that type of thing defines the future of this trend!
   
10. Generational transformation: perhaps the biggest trend is that we are about to witness a sea-change in the rate by which new ideas in the world of agriculture are accepted, as a new generation of technology-weaned, innovative younger people take over the family farm.
    
11. Partnership defines success: If there is one trend I emphasize in every industry I'm involved with, it is that no one individual or organization can know everything there is to know. As I indicated in my I found the future in manure article, this trend is also becoming prevalent in agriculture. We will continue to see an increasing number of partnerships between growers and advisers, suppliers, buyers, retailers and just about everyone else, so that they learn to deal with the massive complexities that emerge from rapid change and innovation.
    

Time for an innovation audit?

From an article I wrote for The Boardroom, a publication for associaton executives: "Take the time to do this simple to test to determine if your association and its members are in the right frame of mind for remarkably new and innovative things, or whether they and you are stuck in a rut, unable to respond and deal with the change that is swirling around you." It's based on some previous postings I did here.

Read the full article .

"...what lies ahead three-to-five years from now?"

SCTE SLATES FUTURIST JIM CARROLL AS ET 2006 KEYNOTE SPEAKER

DEC. 13, 2005 (Exton, PA)—The Society of Cable Telecommunications Engineers (SCTE) is pleased to announce that the keynote speaker for the SCTE Conference on Emerging Technologies® (ET) 2006 will be Jim Carroll, international futurist, trends and innovation expert.

ET 2006 is set for Tuesday through Thursday, Jan. 10-12 in Tampa, Fla. The keynote address, set for Wednesday, Jan. 11 at 9 a.m., is sponsored by BelAir Networks.

SCTE’s ET, which offers the cable telecommunications industry’s leading engineers and technologists a look at what lies ahead three-to-five years from now, includes four hard-hitting technical sessions and an array of networking opportunities, including the Thursday, Jan. 12 second-day keynote luncheon, sponsored by Scientific-Atlanta and featuring speaker Gary Traver, senior vice president and COO, Comcast Media Center.

Carroll’s Wednesday morning keynote address early in the conference’s first full day promises to help get ET attendees focused on future possibilities for the industry. Based on highly original research, Carroll provides a unique blend of demographic, lifestyle, and technological insight into global economic trends. He sets the stage for organizations to become more competitive, innovative, and adaptable—and more open to the opportunities of the future. His past client list includes the likes of DaimlerChrysler, the U.S Army Corps of Engineers, and Motorola.

For more about Carroll, visit http://et.scte.org/keynote.htm. For more about ET 2006, including registration details, visit http://et.scte.org/.

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"Volatility is the new normal"

I recently keynoted the Furtniture Today 2005 Leadership conference in Miami. This article reports on my talk.

Futurist: Changes will present new opportunities
Furniture Today, 12/14/2005 .

MIAMI -- If you aren't comfortable with change, you probably won't like Jim Carroll's vision of the future.

“Everything is changing so fast, you don’t know what is going to happen next,” he told the Furniture/Today Leadership Conference here. “Volatility is the new normal.”

Carroll should know. The “futurist” has observed trends for nearly 20 years. He can’t predict exactly what will happen, but understands how quickly things are changing and how that could affect business.

Technology and ease of communication are among the key factors influencing the spread of new ideas and products. For instance, there are now 19 million known chemical substances, he said. Thanks to online capabilities that allow scientists to share information quickly, this number is expected to grow to 80 million by 2025 and 5 billion by 2100.

Carroll cited a study that said 65% of today’s preschool children will work in jobs that don’t exist now. And half of what students learn in their freshman year about science and technology is obsolete by their senior year.

Such rapid change, he said, will have broad impact on the furniture industry. “The way ideas are generated has changed in a fundamental way,” he said. “All ideas are shared faster than ever before, and that is what is impacting your industry.”

Carroll wants people to embrace change, the future and the opportunities they present. “Most people approach the future as something to be feared,” he said. “To me, the future is full of opportunity.”

Aging baby boomers are one opportunity as they seek home health care service, a factor that will influence the type of furniture in peoples’ homes, he said.

“Dealing with the future with the right mindset is critical,” Carroll said. “When we are bemoaning the challenges, we need to think of the next waves of opportunity.”

He urged his audience to better understand customers in the context of a rapidly changing world. Customer expectations and needs are changing rapidly, and many are more demanding, he said, and brand or product loyalty “tends to go out the window with customer empowerment.” Also, customers view more and more products as commodities, which influences buying decisions.

He advised furniture companies to remain focused on core areas such as style, selection and service to best serve a demanding customer, and suggested they partner with industries such as electronics and health care to deliver in all three areas.

Most importantly, Carroll urged his listeners to keep an open mind to what is happening around them and the possibilities that presents for their businesses.

“You can become your own futurists,” he said. “You can discover your own trends simply by looking at what’s happening in the world.”

10 big trends for the legal profession

In the last few years, I've spoken to a variety of professional service firms, including legal organizations. In addition, I've become an expert witness in a number of court cases, include a successful leave-to-appeal to the Supreme Court. During this time, I've come to understand the big trends that the legal profession is faced with in the years to come, and have put together a list of these 10 trends:

1. Generational warfare: the predominant legal battles of tomorrow are already emerging today as small skirmishes, particularly in the world of entertainment. The younger generation, weaned on a massively interconnected global world, has rejected many of the accepted norms of legal principle when it comes to such legal principles as intellectual property, the role of government, censorship, and environmental matters. As they come to take over positions of authority in government and business, they will completely redefine our legal landscape -- with the result that they will go to legal-war with their older, more conservative legal peers.
   
2. The underground goes mainstream: One side impact of this generational warfare is that we will see "going underground" becoming more acceptable. in the last few years, we saw a fascinating battle between music companies and Kazaa, the music sharing organization, which used extra-terratorial jurisdictional issues to provide itself some shelter against legal action. That type of activity is going to become the norm, not the exception, in the future. Indeed, going legal-underground is about to go mainstream: we can expect to see a lot more of it in the future.


3. Risk minimization takes on priority
: events of the last several years have made it clear that volatility is the new normal. Much of the focus of the legal profession -- whether it involves corporate, M&A, tax, consumer law or other issues -- will be aimed at risk minimization. In a world in which we truly don't know "what comes next" in terms of new and complex risks, organizations, government and consumers will increasingly seek to protect themselves in advance, through the law.

4. Legal hyper-change becomes the rule, not the exception: as the pace of innovation and change continues to evolve at a furious pace in every industry, as product lifecycles disappear, as new knowledge is generated, and as industries disappear and appear, there will be a flood of new legal issues, challenges and concerns. The essence of the challenge faced by the legal profession today is found in the infinite idea loop which now envelopes every aspect of our world.
   
5. Just-in-time legal knowledge becomes the focus: The typical lawyer will find that their biggest day to day problem is simply trying to keep up with the ever more rapid evolution of law. The most critical and important new legal skill will be developing the ability to quickly immerse oneself in new legal issues, matters and knowledge, at the right time, for the right purpose, in the nick of the moment.
   
6. Rapid change and specialization
: The result of this rapid change in the legal space is that we will see an even greater degree of legal specialization than we see today. Already highly stratified, we'll see sub-specialties within specialties, and specialties within those specialties. The law will become so stratified that a hundred thousand professions will emerge in the profession of law.

7. A global battle for legal talent: This hyper-nicheing leads to a curious effect: a supply-demand shock, in which it will become the norm for only a very small number of lawyers who have any real knowledge of a very specialized area of the law. This will further increas the cost of basic legal services, and makes a battleground for access to talent the new competitive edge in the provision of global legal services.
   
8. Evidentiary challenges
: whether they like it or not, the Internet is increasingly going to be accepted as evidence in the courtroom, and the issues of information validity and integrity are going to become huge, complex challenges. The next generation of lawyers knows that the evidentiary rules of the last 200 years no longer have any effect, and will use this reality in many high profile cases, to devestating effect.

9. Alternative empowerment
: the legal consumer today is already dabbling with self-empowerment, seeking alternatives to traditional legal guidance. What we see today is miniscule to what we see tomorrow, when the generation of kids, weaned on global information, sets out to empower themselves with legal services in the same way they've empowered themselves with technology in so many other ways.

10. Quick response and agility become success factors: the legal profession, not known for moving at a fast pace, will find that glacial response to emerging issues no longer cuts it. The profession will seek a transformation in attitude, capability and adaptability, knowing that its future success will come from its' ability to respond to the rapid rate of change that surrounds us.

Change. Deal with it.

Outside my home office, I've got what my family has come to call the "squirrel highway." All day long, they scurry back and forth along the top of the fence, busy collecting and hiding food.

Earlier this summer, my sons and I wondered what would happen if we put up some highway signs for them to obey. We set up a video camera -- taped for six hours running -- and edited out the best bits. It's a project we're still working on.

This clip was the funniest one -- and seems to tell a bit of a story as to the right way to deal with change. I spend a huge amount of my time in keynotes and workshops helping organizations adapt to the rapid rates of change that surround us. And it's certainly clear that lots of people just aren't good with change. This little fellow is!

Watch the video clip  

The future of media in the era of the infinite idea loop

Way back in 2002 -- doesn't that seem like a long time ago? -- I was asked to keynote a get together of the International Newspaper Marketing Association. The title of my talk? "How Consumer and Advertiser Markets Will Differ in a Post-Recession
Environment -- And How Newspapers Should Strategically Respond."

Back then, media and advertisers were convinced that the future was over; the Internet was no longer something to be concerned about; that there were precious few ideas to be had when it came to creativity in the media and advertising. I came in with a different message -- that we were yet to see a blossoming of truly creative potential in the world of media....

That's where we are today -- and in June of 2006, I'll keynote a major magazine conference. I wrote up a session description the other day for the conference organizers -- and it gives you a hint of where I'll take the crowd.

It's all about creativity, inspiration, innovation, and adapting to change -- furious rates of change.... here's the session description.

What Comes Next? (And What Should You Do About it?"

The Google-Car? A printer of things? Wireless energy? Personal ink?
Bio-connectivity? Join us as noted international futurist, trends and
innovation expert Jim Carroll takes us on a fascinating voyage to
2016. It's a world that involves topsy-turvey business models, ever
more rapid innovation, and even more contentious consumers.
Our future is full of both challenge and opportunity. . And the fact
is, to thrive with magazine publishing opportunities today and in the
future, you've got to understand both short and long term trends, and
be in the proper frame of mind to cope. That's why we've brought in
Jim Carroll, a Kenneth R. Wilson award winning columnist, author, and
all around nice guy, to give us a glimpse into the long term future --
and the short term issues that we are now wrestling with.

In addition to a gaze out far into the future, Jim will also take a
comprehensive look at the opportunities and challenges we are faced
with today, including: demographic realities, the essence of
advertising market shifts, the rise of blogdom and issues of
editorial integrity vs information rapidity; Nintendo-influenced-
attention-spans and writing style; and rapid technoligical change and
magazine business model agiltiy. Add on to this the longer term
trends that will drive us through the next 10 years, and there is no
doubt that we're in for a wild ride -- and a lot of fun!

In his keynote, Jim will outline how to turn both short and long term
trends and challenges into opportunity! In his keynote, he provides a
key message -- opportunity comes from your ability to innovate and
change, adapt and evolve, as the very foundation of the publishing
industry -- and the world around you -- continues to evolve at a
furious pace.

Fortune Magazine and the infinite idea loop

i>Fortune Magazine's Business Innovation blog linked to my "infinite idea loop" video clip, and the traffic has been pretty heavy from right around the world.

They had this to say of my clip on how innovation has forever changed in the context of what I call "the infinite idea loop: "It's hard to discuss all of these trends succinctly within a brief 3-minute period, but Jim does a great job - it was like watching a motivational speaker up on stage exhorting companies to embrace open collaboration and global connectivity."

Cool -- and thank you for the compliment!

"It's in to be out!"

I'm doing a dinner talk tonite for a government group involved in managing recreation and camping parks throughout the province. It's my last event before Christmas break, at which point I'll focus son skiiing and writing my Masters of Business Imagination book.

I'll base the talk tonite on the "10 outdoor trends" identied earlier this yaer when doing a New York City publicity event. Earlier this year, I met with the editors of O (Oprah Magazine), Elle, Family Circle, Parenting, InStyle, Cosmopolitan, Working Mother, American Baby, Soap Opera Weekly, Woman's Day, Glamor, Teen Vogue, Seventeen, Good Housekeeing, Family Circle and about 40 other national trade magazines, in New York City.

I was there on behalf of Banana Boat, in their annual product launch, talking about my "10 Trends that Will Rock the Outdoor World in 2005." You can read the list and see the "fun facts" here.

In preparing, I undertook detailed research and analysis of leading lifestyle, demographic, social and cultural trends, to put into perspective what we can expect in terms of active, outdoor living in the future.

It's a good example of the unique type of event that I am hired for -- in this case, I was retained by a leading global PR agency on behalf of their client.

The Masters of Business Imagination

One of the biggest challenges in writing a book is getting the title right..... and this one has taken a long time.

But while sitting here today in the snow! it finally clicked in: and it will come out :The Masters of Business Imagination: Why It's the Only Degree You'll Ever Need.

Another alternative: :The Masters of Business Innovation: Why It's the Only Degree You'll Ever Need.

Yes!