10 major health care / pharmaceutical trends
I'm off to do a half day session with a major player in the pharmaceutical industry; I've compiled a list of the 10 key pharmaceutical / health care trends that they should be thinking about.
I'll be walking through these issues, and will then lead a workshop focused on the question: how do we ensure we have the agility, insight and execution in order to survive and thrive in this period of rapid change?
I've done extensive work within the healthcare sector over the last many years; this is one industry where the rapidity of scientific driven change is simply unprecedented. Think about what is really happening around us, and think about what needs to be done:
- A transformative shift - Personalized medicine drives the agenda: the big picture item is that we are in the midst of a fundamental, significant shift in healthcare philosophy and medical research: from a world in which we “react” to disease and illness after it has happened, to one in which we will be doing far more to “prevent” health care problems through highly personalized medicine.
This is primarily coming about because of furious rates of discovery related to genomics. This more than anything will dominate the health care / pharmaceutical research / delivery agenda through the next years.
- Knowledge growth becomes exponential; pace of innovation / discovery picks up: medical knowledge is now doubling every eight years. Expect it to be doubling every two years by 2010 -- with the result that medical professionals will be struggling to an even greater degree in keeping up than they are today. Research taps out practical results faster than ever before. The key for everyone is tapping into global collaborative discoveries / keeping up / developing agility for rapid innovation, response, development, and implementation. For pharmaceutical and health care suppliers, it's about rapid development and rapid time to market.
- Discovery moves offshore: for a good chunk of the pharmaceutical industry, the proces of R&D, approval and application will increasingly move offshore, particularly to China / India, due to different regulatory requirements (or lack thereof). Also, such things as stem-cell research limitations, US visa policies and other factors play a factor in the diminishing role of the US as a pharmaceutical industry hub. The pharmaceutical industry will continue to spend a huge amount of time learning to work within the new shifting zones of influence in the world of research.
- Theory into practice becomes the primary focus; operational excellence is key: already, health care can’t keep up with the rate of scientific discovery: “Because of the rapid discovery of new medical knowledge, you'll get the most up to date treatment today only 50% of the time” is one key stat to remember. Tomorrow, the prime focus in the medical community will be how to ingest and incorporate this new knowledge into practice. In terms of the pharmaceutical industry, the key goal will be “operational excellence,” i.e. ….from the Financial Times 6 Jun article on Roche, “…the Avastin story also highlights a central issue for innovation-led companies: how to make sure advances in the laboratory are brought to market quickly and efficiently.” There’s a whole line of thinking emerging in that article and elsewhere that puts into perspective that collaborative excellence in managing complex teams is quickly becoming a key and critical success factor.
- Skills fragment and a battle for skills drives decisions: hyper-growth in knowledge and new medical discoveries means that every medical profession is becoming more specialized, leading to a greater degree of niche-oriented medical skills than we see today. In the pharmaceutical industry, small biotech companies will continue to dominate the research agenda over big-pharma, by focusing on ever tighter niche markets, as well as by discovering disease-oriented drugs based on specific genetic markers. Skills fragmentation results in challenges, but so does the looming baby boomer retirement wave. A war for medical talent drives much of the agenda of the industry by 2010, and the battleground is global in scope.
- Complexity partnerships take on an increasing role: because of the skills crisis, rapid discovery, need for operational excellence, knowledge growth and discovery, big/medium the pharmaceutical industry will continue to look to shed additional component pieces of the discovery / regulatory approval process; outsourcing takes on a whole new meaning.
- Bio-informatics emerges, core competence becomes critical: Microsoft estimates that at least 50,000 people worldwide are working in the field of bio-informatics – the folks who are developing the highly sophisticated computer databases and computational methodologies that can do the billions of measurements on an individual patient that is leading us into the era of personalized medicine.
- Bio-connectivity becomes the next big thing: a new generation of intelligent, Internet-connected medical devices flood the industry, providing new opportunities for monitoring and management of difficult health care conditions. Furious pace of innovation occurs here as consumer tech trends (collapsing product lifecycles) come to medical devices and medical technology.
- Hospitals get “de-physical”, customer service comes to the industry: today, a health care institution is thought of as the building or campus that makes up its constituent parts. Tomorrow, it will be defined by the reach of its virtual network, and the hospital will be thought of as the extended community network by which a good portion of its services are provided. Walmart is coming to health care; the Minute-Clinic business model and others like it mean that we are seeing a revolution in customer service come to the industry.
- Generational attitude transforms the system: the entrance of Gen-Y -- kids who are in 2005 aged 15 -- into the health care system -- will bring a flood of new ideas, innovation and new ways of thinking helping to break some of the organizational sclerosis that has clogged up the opportunity for change in the world of health care.
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The Google Car and massive market disruption
There are a few news stories today about Tesla Motors, which includes some of the founders of Google, involved in an effort to build a new electric car.
Let's just call it the Google Car.
I've been predicting this type of massive market shift since sometime in 2004; there's a video clip from January 2006 in which I talked at the Society of Cable Telecom Engineers annual conference about the concept of a Google Car (which in my view, will be delivered via FedEx and will come with a party in a box!). I even included the suggestion that you'd be able to pre-order online.
Hmm, look at that -- you can!
I don't think the scenario posted by Tesla is far-fetched at all -- given rapid science, hyperinnovation, low cost offshore production, and the slow response of other traditional business models .... every industry today is ripe for massive disruption and the rapid emergence of new competitors. A big part of the equation is avoiding 'legacy costs' both in manufacturing as well as sales and support. Think FedEx, not car dealerships. Think smart engine modules that pop in and out, not auto mechanics. Think WalMart, not ReadyLube.
It's all there, and someone just has to pull it together.
Watch the video clip here.
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What’s Next? Trends Shaping the Future of Commercial Horticulture
I've just returned from Vail after doing a keynote and workshop for the American Nursery and Landscape Association.
As the session description for the afternoon workshop commented: "Your mind is spinning from the morning’s trends discussion. Now it’s time to turn those trends and challenges into a tangible business opportunity! After 100 years, StarKist finally got rid of its tin-can, replacing it with a new resealable plastic tuna pouch. $200 million of new revenue later, they’ve realized the benefit of aggressive change and innovation. StarKist looked at the trend toward convenience, and modified their product accordingly.... Jim Carroll will roll up his sleeves and work with you to discover what your business’ tin can is…and help you see that opportunity comes from your ability to innovate and change, adapt and evolve, as the very foundation of the industry continues to evolve."
(The full session description is here)
Like every industry, horticulture and garden retailing is being influenced by a wide variety of trends; some of the issues I spoke about included:
- hyper-science, including the rapid evolution of new species for particular markets and hardiness zones based on plant genomics. But it's not just that: the global infinite idea loop is also seeing the emergence of new plant strains, which fuels new consumer desire, once they see the new things they can do in their garden that they could not do before .... imagine hydrangeas that bloom all summer long....
- marketing to the zero-attention span customer, who now scans shelf-space at an average rate of 12 feet per second! Gardening stores and others in the industry need to focus not on selling plants, but on selling brands and solutions. The customer isn't looking for a plant by a Latin name -- they want branding and design! Some growers are doing exactly that, such as with the "Tropical Splendor" design which involves cool brand names such as "Exotic Tahiti" or "Fiesta Cozumel"
- the emergence of pre-packaged life, a time in which today's gardener doesn't want to do the work -- they want an outdoor living room solution, of but which flowers and plants are but a part of an overall design. I identified the outdoor living room trend in 2003 -- and today, already, the outdoor living product market is now estimated at $15.7 billion, or 37% of total lawn and garden spending....
- the rapid emergence of new markets: all of the above means that retailers in this sector are witnessing new products and markets appearing faster than ever before, with the result that their team agility -- the ability to respond to rapid market change -- is critical to their fuuture success
- upside down retail -- as with every aspect of innovation, the retailer is now in charge of the design process, and producers must learn to listen and follow, rather than mandate and dictate.
- and programmable plants: yup, that's right! Pretty soon, many garden plants will have the intelligence and connectivity to signal to the home irrigation network when they need water. With water being the oil of the 21st century, the home gardening industry is faced with some pretty big challenges -- and science is quickly bringing us some pretty unique developments!
- Change acceptance is a challenge: I think one of the most challenging issues occurring is that traditional florists/nurseries and gardeneres are having a really tough time dealing with the new consumer. A fellow name Eliot Wadsworth of White Flower Farm commented in the May 11, 2006 issue of Greenhouse Grower that as gardeners, "we were selling a process and a way of life" but that all they are selling now "a canned and instantaneous-gratification product. " That's exactly what many consumers are looking for; and even so, many traditional gardeners and florists will remain. Innovation is all about understanding change -- as difficult and sad as it might be from an emotional perspective.
All in all, it was a great day and a great session -- although I'll be the first to admit that my energy was seriously drained by the 8,000 foot elevation at Vail combined with 95F temperatures....! That was some heat wave!
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It's summertime!
I'm working doing some research, out in the yard, next to this little fellow --now known as
- Captain Gnome.
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It's summer -- and it's in to be out!
Forgive me if you've seen me recycle this post, but it's a good trend overview. It's summertime, I'm writing a book, and I'm preparing for an upcoming keynote for the American Nursery and Landscape Association in Vail.
A year and a half ago, I was engaged for a New York City publicity event, where, I met with the editors of O (Oprah Magazine), Elle, Family Circle, Parenting, InStyle, Cosmopolitan, Working Mother, American Baby, Soap Opera Weekly, Woman's Day, Glamor, Teen Vogue, Seventeen, Good Housekeeing, Family Circle and about 40 other national trade magazines, in New York City.
My focus, on behalf of a consumer products company, was the presentation of my "10 Trends that Will Rock the Outdoor World." You can read the list and see the "fun facts" 
here.
In preparing, I undertook detailed research and analysis of leading lifestyle, demographic, social and cultural trends, to put into perspective what we can expect in terms of active, outdoor living in the future. And while I prepare for next week, it's certainly proving itself to be a document that is bang on.
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