2007 and beyond: Understanding the velocity of change

It's that time of year when everyone is taking stock of the future -- what's going to happen in 2007? What trends will we see? What big changes will occur?

I'm not thinking much of 2007 -- I'm thinking about 2010, and 2015, and beyond. And one thing I do know is that things will be very, very different that far out.

The best way to understand the future is to understand the velocity of the future -- that is, the rate of change that is occuring. The key point is that we'e now in an extremely high velocity world, as the rate of change is speeding up to an unprecedented degree.

One of the best ways to get a sense of this velocity is by doing a "10 Things Test.” Sit in a room, whether you are at work, home, in a factory, retail store or wherever you might be, and take a look around. Compile a list of ten items that you see, and then sit back and ask yourself: “how might these change in the next decade?”

By doing so, you can spot opportunities for innovation: areas where you can apply your creative thinking to do new things; opportunities where you might invest; career paths that you might choose to follow.

I sat this morning in my home office, and here is what I saw:

• Paint. We painted the home office wall this year. My wife did a great job! How will paint change? Actually, it turns out that ‘white could be the new green’ when it comes to the world of paint. Dulux, one of the world’s premiere paint manufacturers, is actively involved in learning how to use starch based plants such as potatoes and wheat to replace upwards of 25% of the petroleum based products used in a typical paint.
  
• Window shades. Think “smart-glass.” Our need for window shades will soon be eclipsed by intelligent glass that will automatically adjust its opacity and transparency for various conditions. Whether it’s bright sunlight, a need to better manage heating and cooling costs, or to provide for greater privacy, it’s likely that we’ll see rapid changes with this basic component of the home and office.
  
• A Kleenex box. It’s not the Kleenex itself which will have changed, but the retail technology which interacts with the box as you worked your way through the store in 2010. The box itself will have developed intelligence; it was busy updating the stores inventory system and revenue sales figures as you walked with it out the door. (You didn’t have to go to a check out ; they’re so yesterday!)
  
• Eyeglasses. Sure, they’ll still be there. But maybe they will have the ability to link directly to an implant next to the neurons in your retina, providing a direct visual link through the bifocal part of the lens for close up objects. If that’s too farfetched, then a more realistic scenario would be genetic alteration of the macular tissue in your eye that would prevent any inflammatory genes from killing your vision cells – thus leading to a reduction in the leading cause of blindness in seniors -- AMD (age-related macular degeneration).
  
• Ceiling lights. They’ll be drawing upon the solar panels on the top of your roof and that of your neighbors. You’ll have established a small community energy grid, which bypasses a need to tap into the local electrical network during the days when the sun is ready to rock and the wind is ready to roll. Solar panels are decreasing in cost at a steady pace, just as their efficiency is increasing; the same holds true for wind power. Given the likely increased volatility with traditional energy supplies, we’ll see an increasing focus on alternate, micro-grid energy innovations.
  
• A laptop. What laptop? Your desk is now monitored by a 3D virtual sensor that traces the action of your fingers. You aren’t really typing onto a keyboard anymore, since there isn’t one. Instead, the ceiling light has directed holographic keyboard onto your desktop; simply simulate typing anywhere with the holographic keys that you see, and your words will appear on screen.
  
• Orange juice. It will still come from Florida, but it will be packaged in such a way that the shelf life has been dramatically extended. There are huge new innovations within the world of agricultural packaging; for example, some bananas are now shipped with a special membrane that doubles the shelf-life of the product, by regulating the flow of gases through the packaging.
  
• A telephone. It’s likely to be “so yesterday.” The next generation of kids is fully immersed in interactive tools; for them, an office with virtual 3D long distance video chat will be as normal as apple pie. Not to forget the technology behind the telephone as well; there’s a good chance that you’ll be sourcing your communications service from an offshore supplier, perhaps in China, Russia or South Africa. The entire industry will have defragmented and disappeared, as technological change drives many of the current business models into absolute obsolescence.
  
• Eyedrops. The trend towards hyperconnectivity will impact medical products in a big way. The packaging in which the eyedrops are purchased will "connect" to the global data grid that surrounds us, automatically pulling up a short interactive video on whatever screen that happens to be handy, with instructions on use and precautions. In effect, the role of product packaging will have been transformed from being that of a "container of product" to an intelligent tool that will help us with use of the product.
  
• The view outside. For more of us, it won't be of office towers and concrete jungles, but rather, our yards, the lake we cottage at, or the beach we play on. Ten years out, the concept of “what do you do for a living” will have changed completely to the idea of “what do you like to do?” as the itinerant career begins to dominate. (It’s estimated that in just a few years, some 60% of engineering professionals will be self-employed, providing their skills on a part time basis to the global economy.) You’ll be increasingly engaged in active life-design, carving out a series of activities that blend your personal interests with the need to go out and earn some funds. You’ll work at a regular series of short term, highly stimulating, frequently changing project assignments. You might not have a job, but you’ll certainly have some demand for your time.
  

Is all of this science fiction? It might seem like it, but most, if not all of the scenarios above are entirely plausible, based on science, technology and trends that exist today.
The challenge in thinking about the future is that it can be difficult to comprehend the sheer velocity by which trends are occurring. That’s why the “10 Things Test” can be such a valuable method of putting into perspective the velocity of change.

Why Santa rocks at innovation!

It's likely a good time to put into perspective the critical lessons we can learn from someone who is a true master of leadership, insight, creativity and innovation.

None other than the jolly old fellow himself!

Santa is an innovation master. Analyze his leadership style, and his operational insight, motivational style, approach to creativity, forward thinking orientation, or any other management trait, and he has it nailed.

Here's what we can learn from Santa Claus.

• He is future oriented: Santa knows. His talent for insight is unmatched. He's aware. He's sees you when you're sleeping, for example. He knows when you're awake. For goodness sake!
  
• His operational insight is pure genius: he's organized. He's got a list. He checks it twice. Operational excellence is his middle name.
  
• He's a fanatic on customer oriented innovation: he knows exactly what the customer wants. There's no other individual or organization who has such deep insight into the customer. And he's had this core focus for hundreds of years.
  
• He excels at customer service: he always answers customer's mail. And even if he doesn't, your peers (whether they be your parents or your friends) will let you know in no uncertain terms that even if he didn't answer, he did get and read your message.
  
• He has mastered organizational logistics: his delivery system puts FedEx to shame. The timing and execution of a massive burst of activity in such a brief period of time should be required reading for anyone interested in how to manage a supply chain in the global economy. Not only that, but he has been doing it for years without the benefit of a GPS.
  
• He inspires his staff with a singular mission: there's leadership, and then there's Santa. He has brought together a team that stays singularly, absolutely, completely, focused on one straightforward mission. They fulfill their duty with passion, enthusiasm and a smile. They wear cool hats that serve the purpose of reminding them that they are on a team. They are often known for even singing while they work. Now that's leadership!
  
• He is not afraid of hiring those who are different: Rudoph. Red Nosed. Reindeer. Enough said. Santa has got this diversity thing down to a science. Not to forget the previously mentioned staff, most of whom are quite altitude challenged.
  
• He is mindful of work life balance: some people take a few weeks off for a holiday. Some might take off a month. Santa takes off entire seasons in order to recoup from his big night.
  
• He has maintained the essence of the brand name despite massive change: ensuring brand longevity over a span of several hundred years is probably the most impressive feat in branding that we have ever seen. In an era in which brands can become boring, out of date or tired, Santa has managed to keep the brand image intact.
  
• He excels at keeping up with constantly changing consumer demand: he is a trend watcher, always on top of what comes next. A new toy? Santa knows. A new toy that isn't quite appropriate for a particular child? Santa knows. Santa was doing one-to-one marketing/selling long before marketing entered the college curriculum.
  
• He has integrity as a core virtue: his leadership core is based on knowing who's naughty, and who's nice. Ethics are at the heart of his mission, and he uses this to inspire and lead his staff, suppliers, customers, and elves. He rewards those who excel, and provides a blunt management point of view on those who have been naughty. He puts success into simple, basic, concrete terms, and in doing so, inspires those of us who have been naughty to do better the next time. And the essence of his ethical message means that there is an entire generation who maintain good behavior, careful of his watchful eye.
  
• He constantly transitions his brand to the next generation: Santa is the master of reinventing the brand. Even while one generation becomes aware that Santa will play a different role in their life, they ensure that other generations have deep loyalty to him. There's no other leader who can pull off this feat!
  
• He is a wizard at HR management: the elves are there for the busy season, and then redeploy themselves as garden gnomes during the summer time. Santa mastered proactive job-oriented skills access long before human resource professionals even came to realize that multiple career paths would be the way of the future.
  
• He's reliable: he shows up. He's coming to town. We know that. There's a song about this reliability. Even Jack Welch doesn't have a song.
  

I dunno about you, but I'm inspired by the fellow!

Generational change and the future of health care

I woke up this morning with a pretty big sty on my eye; I could feel it coming on last night. Big, puffy, and sore : I couldn't get my contact lenses in, which is kind of a drag since I do a talk for SAP today (Theme: Velocity, Agility, Complexity and Flexibility: The Four Key Drivers for Competitive Advantage: more on that to come.)

At 6:45am this morning, I went down to the home office, and e-mailed my eye doctor asking what I should do. At 6:47AM, he emailed me back with a few suggestions, and advised me to come in at 9:30am. Talk about customer service!

My eye-doc is a bit younger than me -- and he's grown up with technology. In terms of his medical practive, he has always been at the leading edge of the curve in terms of adoption of new equipment and technology. He has had quite a consultative approach with me through the years, taking a cumulative series of hi-resolution digital pictures of my retina for example, in order to be able to show me the slow and steady (and normal) impact of aging. (And, in effect, helping me get over the fact that I increasingly need to use reading glasses.)

So it is with his rapid response on e-mail; he commented in our exchange this morning that "instead of a Blackberry, I use an ultraportable Thinkpad. Wireless at home, wireless at work, wireless at Starbucks -- the 3 places where I live 95% of my life. :)"

As a medical professional, he's wired up, interactive, and providing a different type of medical service. To him, interactivity with the patient is a good thing, and all part of the service. That's innovation right there.

The 21st century medical professional is:

• collaborative: the patient is a partner in the process: they know we are empowered with information, and they work with us to help us understand how to best use it given our medical circumstance
  
• responsive: yes, they have a life. They use technology to balance how they spend their professional and personal time, and in doing so, provide rapid customer service.
  
• interactive: the online world plays a key role in the service element; from e-mail appointments to a prescription that includes an online information source
  
• progressive: there's a flood of new ideas and methodologies coming into the world of medicine. They adopt it, understand it, and utlize it to improve health care delivery

I wrote about this trend with my Future Medicine: Prescriptions for 21st Century Health Care overview, noting that one of the 10 biggest trends to impact health care in the future will be the impact of such interactivity on medical delivery: " The entire medical system is set to be transformed with the entrance of GenConnect (those born after 1990) into the health care system. As they take on careers as medical professionals and administrators, they will bring with them a flood of new ideas, innovation and different ways of thinking. Health care institutions currently clogged with organizational sclerosis cannot keep pace with today’s demands. But GenConnect’s aggressive attitude towards change will quickly break down this sclerosis."

As the Gen-Connect generation -- the ultimately wired crowd -- gets involved in health care delivery, we are going to witness a massive and significant transformation of the system. And that can only be a good thing!

Read Future Medicine: Prescriptions for 21st Century Health Care

EyeDoc: Port Credit Optometrists and Dr. Peter Rozanec