10 Truths about the Future

In my keynotes, I often talk about how the rate of change -- whether with business models, product lifecycles, skills and knowledge -- is speeding up. With such change, there's a lot of uncertainty within many industries as to what to do next: a senior executive of one client commented to me from his perspective, “….entities are engaged in survival tactics because they don’t know what to do next ….”

Innovation is all about adapting to the future -- and if the future is coming at you faster, then you need to innovate faster. Innovation shouldn't be about trying to survive the future -- it should be about thriving.

At a recent keynote to executives within the direct marketing industry, I outline some truths as to the future:

• It’s incredibly fast: Product lifecycles are collapsing. It's said that half of what students learn in their freshman year about science and technology is obsolete or revised by their senior year. There are furious rates of new scientific discovery. Time is being compressed.
  
• It involves a huge adaptability gap: Earlier generations -- boomers -- have had participated in countless "change management workshops," reflecting the reality that many of them have long struggled with change. Gen-Connect -- today's 15 and under -- will never think of change management issue. They just change.
  
• It has a huge instantaneity: The average consumer scans 12 feet of shelf space per second. Most news becomes old hat within 36 hours of emerging. We live in the era of the rapid idea-cycle.
  
• It hits you most when you don’t expect it: Every organization must deal with two realities: the rapid emergence of new technologies, the sudden adoption of old-hat ideas. If you want to understand what comes next, study Gartner's concept of "hype-cycles"
  
• It's being defined by renegades: Increasingly, the future of many an industry is being defined by industry expatriates. When a real innovator can't innovate within a company, they step outside, form a startup, and spark massive industry change on their own. Before you know, they've reinvented you.
  
• It involves partnership: Old business models involved asking, "what can we do to run our business better?" The new business model is this: "What can we do to run our customers, suppliers and partners business better?"
  
• It involves intensity: We must learn to run our business at video-game intensity: in fast paced markets, we need fast paced business capabilities.
  
• It’s bigger than you think: I used to joke about a futuristic GoogleCar. I don't think it's a joke anymore. Complacency is a dangerous thing, particular when every organization is faced with constant, relentless external innovation from unexpected competitors.
  
• It involves innovation intensity: With rapid change, everyone in an organization must innovate. My biggest frustration in appearing on Maria maria bartiromo's CNBC Business of Innovation show a month ago, was that it featured a lot of "innovation elitists" who seemed to indicate that only special people can "do" innovation. Wrong : thriving in the future has a leadership that involves everyone in innovation. No idea is too dumb, no opportunity is too small.
  
• It comes from experiential capital: With a fast future, you've got to learn and relearn. Corporate equity isn't just money: it's the cumulative experience and knowledge of the team. While Verizon takes a lot of abuse from analysts for its' big fiber optic bet, here's what I see: the CEO stating that the cost of installing fiber dropped 30% in 2005, and that there was a further reduction of 15-20% in 2006. By the end of end of 2006, they expect it to cost ½ that of 2005. That's experiential capital, and that's an invaluable asset.
  

The future is going to hit you whether you like it or not; it's your approach to it, and how you innovate with it, that defines your future success.

Links:

• Can you run your businses at video game intensity?
  
• The GoogleCar
• Gartner's Hype Cycles
  

Video - innovation and education

Some weeks ago, I spoke at the University of Oklahoma, on the role of innovation in education.

There's a brief video clip here.

The biggest area for any educational institution in the future is in the area of "just-in-time knowledge." Whether we are dealing with medical, scientific, financial and business, mechanical or engineering issues, one thing is clear: the knowledge that people need to know to do their job today is becoming infinitely more complex every minute, with a constant, relentless flood of that which is new. In such an environment:

• the ability of obtaining rapid, instant knowledge generation is becoming an urgent necessity in almost every field of endeavor;
  
• the ability to quickly digest, understand and assess new knowledge is an increasingly important skill – one that not a lot of individuals have mastered;
  
• the ability to reformulate our thinking, assumptions and capabilities to respond to the constant change being thrust upon us is of increasing importance
  That’s where the concept of “just in time knowledge” comes in, as it best describes the nexus of these realities.
  

And from an innovation perspective, there is plenty of opportunity for meeting the demands of our fast-paced world through just in time knowledge.

This video is linked to the post I originally made when visiting the folks in Oklahoma; you can read that post, What's happening with our workforce here

High velocity retail innovation

Back in October 2005, I identified the major trends that would sweep the retail and consumer products industries, and some of the key innovation methods that organizations should pursue in order to avoid product and service commoditization. You can read the original post here.

Since then, we've seen continued massive rates of change in these sectors. Three weeks ago, I keynoted a major convenience store conference, speaking both to store and franchise owners, as well as dozens of executives from major consumer product companies.

The retail industry today is now driven by hyper-innovation, rapid technological advance, increased customer expectations, rapidly evolving product trends, and increasingly fickle consumers driven by the rapidity of instant trends.

How can people turn these trends into opportunity? It comes from innovation -- not just with new products, but with business process, store design and layout, rapid adoption of new products, format mix, and partnerships between the retailers, consumer goods companies and packaging companies.

Some of the trends I highlighted in my talk included:

• the rapidity of change: The retailer of today is drowning in new product innovations. According to the Washington Post, some 33,679 new products were introduced into the consumer products sector in 2004, up 53% from 10 years earlier. With room for only so many new SKU’s, it can be pretty difficult to keep up.
  
• constant format change: There’s a lot of innovation with in-store formats and display technology : constant experimentation with store formats, brand partnering promo innovation, new in-store displays, logistics and tracking studies, and countless other new ways of doing things within the store are all critical.
  
• zero-attention span customers: The average consumer now scans 12 feet of shelf space per second. News becomes old news within 36 hours. The average age of a video game player is now 37 years old. Today's consumer has precious little attention, and you've got to work extra hard to get them interested in a product while in the store.
  

In a follow article that I wrote for the conference, which will come out in June, I summarized my guidance to the audience: "Get on board the tornado of change in retail and ride it for all it is worth! You should develop a team that has a finely-tuned radar for unique trends, experiments, success stories and innovations. They’re swirling around you continuously, they are constantly reinventing the world of retail on a minute by minute basis – and you’ve got to understand them and capitalize upon them."

Article: Innovators look beyond the horizon

CAPITAL Magazine in Dubai has run my article, "Tomorrow is the New Today."

The article is based on several of the postings to this blog over the last year, opening with the observation that "with all the organizations I've studied, I've long realized that innovation comes naturally to those organizations that are focused on the opportunities of tomorrow rather than the challenges of today."

While that might seem like simple common sense, I've come to learn that quite a few companies don't do this. They are too busy dealing with the 'here and now;" in the meantime, their markets are changing, their customers are evolving, the products and services they sell are rapidly transitioning before they know it, they wake up and things have changed quite dramatically.

I catch this reality in my "3 types of companies" video: it's worth a quick watch.

That's why I suggest that companies should "instill a culture that has everyone thinking about what can be done, rather than what needs to be fixed."

Read the full article in Acrobat format (5.2mb)

The Future of Risk: Achieving Skills Agility in the High Velocity Economy

Back to work, and I'm off to San Antonio, Texas, to keynote the Property and Casualty Insurers Association of America Joint Underwriting/Marketing conference.

I'll be speaking to them on the broad theme of the "future of risk;" what unique new risks might we face in society as we go forward. I look at technological, social, demographic, international, bio/health care issues, and a wide variety of other trends that are changing our ideas about risk.

The session description reads:

In today's high velocity economy, it's all about rapid time to market balanced by appropriate underwriting caution. The insurance industry today is immersed in a period of unprecedented, relentless change; impacted by hyper-innovation, fast-paced technological evolution, the rapid emergence of new forms of risk, and increasing business market turmoil. Permanence has been torn asunder, as customers and business organizations empower themselves with information, and as underwriting decisions become ever more complex. In an era such as this, every insurance organization needs to ensure that they are are focused on the concepts of "agility, insight and execution." The way to the future is clear: it's no longer about simple risk management: it's about having the flexibilty to adapt to rapidly changing circumstances; the insight to spot emerging new forms of before they impact the bottom line; and operational excellence in deployment of new insurance products based on sound, reliable underwriting. Join international futurist, trends and innovation expert Jim Carroll, as he shares his insight into the how organizations are focused on management strategies that focus on agility, insight, and execution.

I've done this talk for quite a number of organizations. What's with the zorbing ball? One thing I talk about is how global connectivity is resulting in the more rapid emergence of extreme sports and extreme ideas, and we are witnessing a society that simply seems to take on new forms of risk quicker!

Zorbing is a sport in which you place yourself in a big plastic ball, and roll down a hill! The sport has gone global because of global connectivity: blogs, mailing lists, and web sites.....more connectivity means more rapid sharing of strange ideas!

Innovation? Do things you've never done before!

Several people who have read this blog for a long time have commented that I seem to be a bit obsessed with skiing. I am!

And here's the thing -- I only took up sking at the age of 40! I decided at that point that it would be a pretty smart thing to do. And it is likely the smartest decision I have ever made: rather than a time of dark gloom, winter is now a time of bright opportunity! There's hills to be had!

I've gone from being barely able to get down a to skiing some of the world's largest resorts; last year, I was able to ski the Swiss Alps -- and even blended that into a quirky little, self-absorbed video that you can watch here. I think that there is an important innovation message here: you can only innovate if you do things you've never done before!

For the March break, I'm off to Big White, BC. When I'm not on the hills, I plan on reading the book The Story of Modern Skiing by John Fry. I found out about this book after being called by a reporter in Colorado for my views on the future of skiing; the article that resulted ended up in newspapers in San Francisco, Colorado, Alaska and elsewhere. The article covers John's insight and my own.

I will probably learn quite a bit more than I profess to know once I get through John's book -- he is the former editor of SKI, America's oldest ski magazine, and is someone who has truly helped to define the sport. I also expect that I will continue to learn quite a bit more about how to ski -- it is an adventure in which a rank-beginner-turned-intermediate can never stop learning!

If you really, really need to reach me, then send an e-mail!

I can't promise you that you'll get a rapid response; I'm not taking my Blackberry onto the hill! You will get a response within the day, though!

Minds of their own

One of my regular columns focused this month on the issue of "hyperconnectivity."

Quite simply, we're entering an era in which almost everything is becoming plugged into everything else. For example, consider what is happening in the world of sports:

"I recently spoke to a group of CEOs of some of the world’s largest sporting goods manufacturers and challenged them to think 20 years down the road. I suggested they imagine a baseball bat — would it still be a simple, shaped piece of wood?

The bat of the future, I suggested, would have intelligence and connectivity embedded into it. The young uber-wired kids of 2025 could use that technology to analyze their swing. A backyard virtual sensor net could even feed the details to a virtual catcher 20 miles away, allowing them to carry on a dynamic, if somewhat impersonal, game of virtual baseball.

Far-fetched? Not at all. Scary? Definitely. The trend toward such embedded intelligence is extremely real. And, as I said to the CEOs, the future “isn’t bad, it’s just different."

As this future unfolds, there will be tremendous opportunities for innovation: from the development of new products and services, through the redefinition of existing models, as well as innovative strategies to avoid market commoditization. If you want one trend to watch for the next twenty years, this is probably the one.

You should even consider what is happening with intelligent highway cones. ...... which I also cover in the article....

Read the full article

Corporate banking at high velocity

I spoke last week at a senior level banking conference; in attendance were C and VP level executives from such major banks as JPMorgan Chase, Merrill Lynch, Harris NA, Wells Fargo, RBC, HSBC Bank USA, MasterCard Worldwide, Bank of America, Citibank, and SunTrust Bank. The conference, sponsored by global banking research firm Barlow Associates, was built around the broad theme of "Just in time business banking," and focused on trends and innovation within the corporate banking sector.

My keynote took a look at the major trends that will impact corporate banking relationships in the years to come. I also hosted a panel discussion featuring senior executives from Merrill Lynch, Zurich North America and US Bank, examining the broad theme of "how do we innovate in a world of high velocity change?"

What's going on in this sector of the economy mirrors so many others, as we are seeing:

• Demographic driven velocity. Huge change is coming about in the ‘corner office’ as a generation of change-adverse boomers' is set to retire…Gen-connect as bankers embrace velocity, are born innovative, and are fundamentally impatient with the "rest of us!"
  
• Gen-connect as business bankers? The YouTube / IM generation will demand a different type of “customer interaction” in corporate banking. Rapid adoption of new business models, structure, methods, markets, products, ideas……. and constant new forms of service delivery / interaction will emerge!
  Will they even “do” banks, or is their banking future around PayPal?
  
• Rapid idea cycle = rapid market shift. The bar of expectations is constantly rising. The skin to stay in the game is volatile, increasing, and instant. Customer expectations are evolving at high velocity.
  
• Rapid product / service development. Time to market is the key operational focus; the ability to respond to massive, sudden market / product shifts is now key the success factor. Awareness of emerging challenges / opportunities is critical.
  
• Externally focused innovation. Partnership oriented collaborative efforts goes critical (“what can we do to run your business better?”). Rethinking the real strategic role of IT from a different perspective -- tactical to strategic transitions are the magic!
  
• War for talent goes supernova. Skills access becomes the next corporate battle ground – those can get it and lock it up are the winners. Complexity partnerships, infrastructure offloading, next wave outsourcing (“core competencies, not cost”) provide opportunity. Innovative retention, attraction and engagement strategies becomes critical.
  
• Rapid emergence of fundamental change. Complacency is a dangerous thing…Constant, relentless external innovation from unexpected competitors – “as goes Ford and GM, so too go I….” There are *no* barriers to entry and no loyalty beyond this generation to the concept of a bank?
  

This event comes on the heels of my recent talk in the Cayman Islands, on the broad theme of globalization of the financial services industry. You can read more about that event here.

Fast to innovate. Fast to build. Fast to market.

Though I spend my time travelling the world with my innovation message, it's nice to find some recognition at home. I've been living in Ontario, Canada, for the last 22 years, a region that has long been an economic powerhouse.

The economy here, like many others, has its ups and downs; and in going forward into an economy of rapid change, it's the innovation capability that will make the difference.

The Premier of the province, Dalton McGuinty, has just issued his first Ontario Innovates newsletter; I'm interviewed within it. The Premier notes that "we’re living in an exciting era where ideas are springing to life faster than we can blink." He goes on to note that "in today’s hyper-competitive global economy, "it’s not about the big overtaking the small. It’s about the fast overtaking the slow."

I agree, commenting "“We can be wide open to the world and participate in global opportunities, or we can retreat and hide away from it ..... I sense folks are dispirited, especially in smaller communities. It’s like they feel they tried it and it didn’t work. We need to remind people of what is possible."

Read the full newsletter

Read an extract