Revenue from location based mobiles services will top $12.7billion by 2014

Home > Archives

Energy & infrastructure

The next phase of the world of energy involves massive connectivity, highly intelligent self-correcting technology, the rapid advancement of energy science, personal energy micrograms and other transformative trends -- Jim Carroll

Arrow
Arrow
ArrowArrow
Slider

Jim was the recent featured keynote speaker, opening the Accenture International Utilities and Energy Conference, with attendees from major utilities and energy companies from 37 countries. Other events include • Sandia National Laboratories • Black & Veitch International Utilities & Energy Conference • Southwest Gas Association • Allette • National Rural Electrical Cooperative • Midwest ISO Operators • Siemens XHQ • Enercom 2012 • BOMEX (Building Owner and Managers Association • Trane Ingersoll Rand • .

Recent Posts in the Energy & Infrastructure category



It is quickly becoming apparent that in 2017, there will be the emergence of two economies: one linked to the whimsical desire for the 1950’s, and the other firmly  set to accelerate to the year 2050.

Case in point: one will involve a desire to return to coal; the other, to solar, alternative energy and accelerating science.

Which economy do you want to link yourself to? One will be driven by politics, and will seem pretty ridiculous years from now. The other will be driven by science, and is inevitable.

I don’t know about you, but I’m with science on this one….

Science acclerates and takes us into a faster future. It provides us opportunities that are unprecedented. For example: what if we could grow plants that became  solar panels? What if solar adoption grew as quickly as Facebook did?

Crazy ideas? I don’t think so.

Solar is a barometer for two new economies. I was thinking about that this morning when a Bloomberg article caught my attention: “Solar Could Beat Coal to Become the Cheapest Power on Earth”  That’s a 1950 vs a 2050 economic issue right there!

Consider this key paragraph:

In 2016, countries from Chile to the United Arab Emirates broke records with deals to generate electricity from sunshine for less than 3 cents a kilowatt-hour, half the average global cost of coal power. Now, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Mexico are planning auctions and tenders for this year, aiming to drop prices even further. Taking advantage: Companies such as Italy’s Enel SpA and Dublin’s Mainstream Renewable Power, who gained experienced in Europe and now seek new markets abroad as subsidies dry up at home.

Two really cool statistics stand out from the article:

  • since 2009, solar prices are down 62 percent
  • every time you double capacity, you reduce the price by 20 percent

The trend will start to accelerate further as science accelerates. Science is inviolable. It doesn’t slow down. And solar is science.

The fact is, there is incredible momentum with solar.

Innovation in 2017 will be about linking yourself to 2050….

Here’s a clip where i spoke to the National Rural Electrical Cooperaitve, and am challenging them to think about some of these questions.

Today, the Wall Street Journal ran an article,”Why Saudi Arabia’s Oil Giant Aims to Be Big in Chemicals, Too“, with the subhead: “Aramco’s plans to vastly expand its petrochemical operations are part of the kingdom’s effort to remake its economy as oil’s future clouds.” 

bn-qv896_1117ar_j_20161117132853

“Aramco’s strategic goal is to create a global network of refining and petrochemical plants that let Saudi Arabia turn its biggest asset into hundreds of higher-value products crucial to modern life, from chewing gum to auto parts”

Why would one of the world’s largest oil companies shift to a new focus on the chemical industry as their key opportunity? One reason is that the math, and hence the scope of the opportunity, is so overwhelming. (The other being that in a world awash in oil, energy is no longer a growth industry. So after the world gets flat, you put a ripple in it!)

Here’s why: years ago, I dug out a fascinating observation having to do with the world of chemistry. I’ve used this in keynotes for BASF, the American Chemical Society, and many others. Consider the simple math at hand that spells opportunity with a capital ‘O’.

  • “…The number of known chemical substances has been growing exponentially since 1800, from some hundreds then to about 19 million today….”
  • “…. the number constantly doubles every 13 years….”
  • by 2025: 80 million chemical substances
  • by 2050: 300 million
  • and by 2100: 5 billion……

19 billion known chemical substances to 5 billion? That’s a pretty exponential change….

Why is this important? I always point out on stage, when using these stats, that the discovery of a single new chemical substance led to the opportunity for Apple to miniaturize the hard drive — that led to the first iPod.

Which was the birth of a multi-billion market.

For every new chemical substance, similar massive new opportunities exist.

That’s what it means to live in an exponential world! And that is what it means to focus on future opportunities through innovation. Which is precisely what Said Aramco is focused on….

 

 

So … I regularly get approached to speak at a lot of corporate leadership meetings …. and have done so for organizations like Johnson & Johnson, The GAP, Dupont, BASF, Siemens, Lockheed Martin. I frame for them the issue that the future is arriving faster than they think, and offer concise guidance on key trends that they need to align themselves to…..

To help emphasize the issue of the era of acceleration I’ve been using the story of the Jetson’s over the last 5 years while on stage. Remember it? It’s that cartoon show from 1962, purporting to show what the world will look like in 2062. Remember George Jetson? Remember the fact that there were autonomous vehicles, robot assistants, drones, and Skype and FaceTime seemed to be everywhere?

Now consider this! About a month ago, I was approached by Arconic to headline a leadership meeting for them in Phoenix; this is a newly spun-off entity from Alcoa that is focused on advanced technologies. I’ll be the opening kickoff – outlining and reaffirming the trends that will provide massive opportunity in the future.

Great minds think alike! They think the world of the Jetson’s is going to arrive here soon too — and are planning to play a major role in helping to make it happen. So much so, that they engaged Hollywood filmmaker Justin Lin of Star Trek Beyond fame, to do  a live-action re-imagination of the world of “The Jetsons!

 

Give it a watch!

Check their tagline: “Arconic: A Company Where the Future Takes Shape.” And my talk for them? I’m thinking this: “A keynote with the motivation that can help to make it happen!”

Do you need to accelerate your team into the future? Do it now, and read my keynote topic, The Jetson’s Have Arrived Fifty Years Early: What Are You Going to Do About It?

This is all just too much fun — just yesterday, while in Washington, I had some time to kill before a meeting, so I visited the Smithsonian Institution. What did I find, but a Jetsons lunchbox!

jetsonslunchbox

I so want this item….

Learn more about the making of the video

Here I am on stage in front of 2,000 in Chicago on the Jetsons!

david-full-front

“Using 3D-printed wax moulds for concrete components, we will have a completely different paradigm. This is transformative technology”.

It is perhaps the most staggering piece of artwork in the whole of human history, renowned for its accuracy in the depiction of the human body . Anyone who has seen it up close comes away in awe of the fact that someone had the ability to carve such a piece from stone.

Now, imagine, that one day we will see a 3D printer that could print Michelangelo’s David utilizing concrete and other advanced materials – and that if such a statue would be placed next to the original, most people would be unable to tell the difference!

Science fiction? Not to me.

That was one of my messages in my keynote last week for the American Concrete Institute, with with over 1,000 executives from this industry in the room. My job was to outline for them the opportunities that will come to the industry from embracing fast paced trends. And I put on the table for them the idea that the boldest goal in their industry would be accomplished when someone was able to print Michelangelo’s David utilizing a 3D printer.

It’s perhaps the equivalent of the well known Turing test, which is the ultimate challenge with computer technology — could a computer have the ability to exhibit intelligent behaviour equivalent to, or indistinguishable from, that of a human?

Farfetched? No. In fact, computer companies have been pursuing the goal of the Turing test in a feverish race.

This same thing will happen in the concrete industry with 3D printing — indeed, it’s a bold goal that some people are already thinking about in terms of the transformative trends sweeping the industry today.

Every industry has, or should have the equivalent of a Turing test. Think about robotics – how quickly will this industry mature? I just toured a robotics display at a museum in Philadelphia, and one display suggested that there should be a “Jetsons goal for robotics” –” the industry will have matured when it can build a robot that will be accepted by a family, just like Rosie the Robot from the popular 1960’s television cartoon.”

Here’s the thing — we might see these big bold bets be achieved sooner rather than later. I continually emphasize to my clients that the future is happening all around them, and that it’s happening faster than they think. In China, an entire 4,305 sq foot, 2 story home has been printed with a 3D printer, with walls as thick as 
8 feet and with 9 foot ceilings. It too 45 days from start to finish, and was printed in one go at the building site.

Consider this office building in Dubai which was printed in concrete using a 3D printer (from my slide deck).

dubaiconcrete
There are fascinating trends which come from the ability to 3D print with concrete. We can get more flexible designs, with concrete that is warped or twisted. Waste is significantly reduced, new design concepts are suddenly possible, and we can cut down on the cost of manufacturing. People are talking about the fact that it will lead us to an era in which we can “design for deconstruction” — printing in such a way that when a building is eventually decommissioned, we can dissassemble it rather than blowing it up!

Where is the world of construction headed? Consider this:

Your future home might be planned using virtual reality, built with a 3D printer and inspected by a robot for quality. What may sound like a sci-fi movie could become reality in a few decades as Singapore ramps up its construction productivity and employs more efficient building methods. Building with speed and quality through high-tech, Straits Times, Hong Kong, October 2016

Of course, 3D printing is already passe, I pointed out to my audience at the American Concrete Institute: people are already talking about 4D printing — which has materials that can change shape depending on the environemt they are in!

Bottom line? Consider this comment by Archite ct James Gardiner: “Using 3D-printed wax moulds for concrete components, we will have a completely different paradigm. This is transformative technology”.

What’s the Turing test or Michaelangelo’s David in your industry? And are you prepared to think in a big and bold way to get there before others do?

 

One thing I always stress to potential clients is that they are getting much more than just a keynote or presentation for a leadership group — they are getting highly customized insight based on significant original research.

That fact has led to the client list that I have — which includes Disney, two (!) talks for NASA, the PGA of America and more….

I must admit, it’s always a thrill to read the tweets that are sent while you are on stage — realizing that you have really changed lives and changed perspectives!

edutech

You know you are doing something right when you research gets carried further into the industry:

insuretech

To that end, here’s an overview of some of the talks I’ve done this fall:

  • Disruption and Change in the Insurance Industry: a keynote for GAMA International, a global organization for leaders in the global insurance/financial services industry. There’s a tremendous amount of change happening, and much more yet to come. What did I cover in my keynote? You can read about it in my post, Insurance and Innovation: The Challenge of Change . This is one of many talks I’ve done in the insurance industry over the years; I’ve done talks for most major property and life insurance companies at one time or another, and have shared the stage with CEO’s of many of the organizations in the industry.
  • The Future of Insurance Risk: continuing on the insurance theme, an opening keynote for the client conference of FMGlobal, a leading underwriter of insurance risk in the commercial real estate space. My talk took a look at a broad range of trends that will impact the future structure of buildings, architecture, manufacturing facilities and more. Over the years, I’ve done many talks that have looked at the trends impacting the world of commercial real estate.
  • The Future of Medical Device Technology & Healthcare: a talk for an innovation recognition dinner, and then a talk for key R&D staff, for Philips Respironics, a division of Philips Medical Devices, on how the industry will be transformed through hyper-connectivity, changing consumer behaviour, the acceleration of science and much more.
  • The Future of Education. I was the opening keynote speaker for the EdNet 2016 conference in Dallas, with several hundred senior executives from the “education knowledge industry” (aka textbooks) in the room. Read at overview of my talk, Forge Ahead and Move Fast, in an article from an industry publication.
  • Wealth Management and Industry Change: a private event for CEO’s of 40 companies, each with $1 billion+ in revenue, for a private equity company. It’s one of many talks that I do to help senior executives think about the trends that might impact their lines of business and investments – read more in a blog post, Global Wealth Managers Turn to Jim Carroll for Insight on Trends .  It’s kind of cool to think that family wealth managers for such groups as the Wrigley family foundation, the Rothschild’s, the Bill & Melinda Gates family office, and the  Google and many, many others, have turned to me for insight over the years.
  • The Future of Manufacturing: keynotes for the Association of High Tech Distributors in Napa Valley; for Alignex in Minneapolis; and then a rip-roaring motivational keynote full of the latest manufacturing trends for the the Greater Philadelphia Manufacturing conference. The tweets coming out of these events have been astonishing — people in the manufacturing sector are looking for hope and inspiration, and I seem to be giving it to them in spades. Read more at my post, The Disruption and Reinvention of Manufacturing.
  • The Future of Seniors Care: two talks in Nashville for senior executives from the North American assisted living and seniors care industry. I was booked by the American Healthcare Organization and the Centre for Assisted Living, and took a look at the opportunities that come from innovative thinking in dealing with one of the most significant challenges of our time.
  • The Future of Construction, Architecture and Infrastructure: a keynote to open the annual conference of the American Concrete Institute. They admitted to me that they’ve never engaged a keynote speaker to open their event — they’ve been rather ‘stuck’ in their ways, if you pardon the pun. Will they do it again! You bet — my talk took a look at what happens when the world of concrete is influenced by fast trends — 3D printing is coming to concrete, and its coming fast!
  • The Future of Rail and Manufacturing: a talk for Amsted Rail, one of the leading manufacturers in the rail industry. This talk involved a lot of intensive preparation, with about 6 pre-planning conference call with the team bringing me in, as well as very specific, detailed research.

 

Is your community positioned for success in the era of autonomous vehicle technology? Are you thinking about this from an economic development perspective?

intelligenthighway

“Towns withered and died on whether they were on the mainline of a railroad – Do you want to be a community that wants to be on the forefront of this shared technology…or are you going to sit back and wait? It’s going to be a big economic driver.” – Futurist Jim Carroll

It’s a valid question, and one that I’ve been addressing for a number of years. I covered this issue in a keynote for 2,000 mayors and elected officials when I was the opening keynote the Texas Municipal League, as well as the Colorado Department of Transportation Summit. There have been many other similar situations. But I think that perhaps now, the opportunities that come from community that supports advanced, intelligent and hyperconnected transportation infrastructure is only just beginning to hit the radar of those responsible for economic development.

At least, because I’m finding an increasing number of people reaching out to me to talk about the issue. For example, BisNow recently ran an article, The Future Intersection of Driverless Cars and CRE (Commercial Real Estate); read it here.

Jim Carroll, a noted futurist who has spoken to a number of automotive companies as well as such organizations as NASA and the PGA, says autonomous vehicles will have the same economic impact railways did in the 19th century and highways did in the 20th century. And those cities that quickly adopt and build “intelligent infrastructure” to accommodate driverless technology will be the ones to thrive in this new world. “Towns withered and died on whether they were on the mainline of a railroad,” Jim says. “The same went for highways: Cities that were connected directly by major interstates thrived. And now cities are facing a similar paradigm shift, “and really that becomes an economic decision,” Jim continues. “Do we want to be a community that wants to be on the forefront of this shared technology…or are we going to sit back and wait? It’s going to be a big economic driver.”

And Ian Frisch (who sometimes writes for : The New Yorker, WIRED, Bloomberg and Playboy), notes in his article, So, Do Self-Driving Cars Mean We’ll Work During Our Commutes? – read it here.

We will see situations where some cities will want to be at the forefront of this trend and encourage the infrastructure needed to support self-driving cars,” says Jim Carroll, a futurist, trends, and innovation expert. “That will have bigger implications because companies will want to relocate to where this technology is emerging first.”

If your company does relocate, and your commute gets bumped up a few hours, being able to work while your car drives you to the office would dramatically increase efficiency.

Right now, there are buses in the Bay Area with wi-fi,” Carroll says. “If you have a three-hour commute to San Jose, you’re fully equipped to jump in on a meeting on that bus. This will be a more personalized extension of that trend. People are already shifting how they work, but autonomous vehicles will push them to shift work in new and different ways. But, before that’s a reality, we will see organizations investing in communities that are open to the intelligent infrastructure that encourages things like auto vehicles. That’s the key to all of this.

I’ve covered this issue in numerous keynotes: here’s a clip from my Texas Municipal League keynote:

The key issues are this:

  • self driving cars, tractors and trucks – there’s a lot going on, but it’s not going to happen all at once
  • this new era isn’t just about the vehicle — it’s about the infrastructure that surrounds and supports them
  • in other words, there is a lot going on with intelligent highway infrastructure ….
  • there are going to be different levels of intelligence when it comes to the roads and highways that support such vehicles
  • communities will discover that they have an opportunity to get in front of others if they support advanced intelligent highway and road infrastructure
  • some will upgrade existing transportation corridors that accelerate the adoption and use of intelligent autonomous vehicles
  • others will put in place entirely new transportation corridors – self-driving dedicated roads
  • an increasing number of companies will begin to make relocation decisions to those communities who have advanced intelligent transportation plans in place

If you are involved at a political or economic delveopment level, the big issue for you is : where do you want to position your community?

Or will you go the way of communities that died when railroads and the interstate highway system came along?

MakeItHappen

 

What are the big issues that organizations need to be focused on?

Think about three simple words: transformation, acceleration and collaboration.

That’s been the focus of a number of CEO-level keynotes I’ve recently done. A good example was a dinner keynote I did for key clients of BASF, a global chemicals company, in San Antonio, Texas.

How do these three words help senior executives reframe the idea of innovation? Like this:

  • transformation: nothing will ever be the same, and complacency with strategy is not a great idea for going forward. What worked in the past surely won’t work in the future!  Everything is changing at a furious pace: business models, customers, products and services, new competitors, organizational structure. Give me a minute with your company or association, and I can give you deep insight into how your world will look entirely different five to ten years out.
  • acceleration. Companies need to relentlessly reinvent themselves, particularly in terms of the products or services they offer, the markets they operate in, the business proposition at their core. In this world of hyper-connected global business models, speed is the new metric for success going forward. Give me a minute with your company, and I’ll give you innovation heroes who are busy reinventing themselves at the velocity that is demanded today.
  • collaboration. To transform and accelerate, be relentless with structure. Constantly rethink you skills they employ, the partnerships you pursue and the insight you glean from shared ideas. We’re in the era of the global idea machine as witnessed with crowd-thinking and crowdfunding — align yourself to the new insight that comes from the connected organization. Give me a minute with your company, and I’ll give you insight into the new hive-mind of success that is a 21st century innovation hero.

Does it work? One fellow at the dinner came up to me after, observing: “I’ve seen a lot of speakers, but your crystallized todays’ world in a really unique hard-hitting way. Oh, and it was great fun too!

It was an awesome event, in an intimate setting, with senior executives of some of the largest energy and infrastructure companies in the world!

Arrow
Arrow
ArrowArrow
Slider

 

Here’s a clip from a keynote I did for GE — what is the real impact and potential of the Internet of Things (#iOT)?

 

I’ve written another article for the global GE Reports publication : you can find it online here.

GoingGray

The U.S. and other countries are doomed by tremendous water usage and leaky infrastructure. But a thirst for innovative solutions is leading entrepreneurs and communities to rethink ways to use everyday wastewater.

Let’s talk about water.

There are big energy opportunities that come from innovative thinking about water usage, particularly given that much of the Western world’s infrastructure is not set up in such a way that wastewater is reused and recycled.

Consider some key statistics:

  • 16 percent of the U.S. water supply is lost due to leaky pipes and goes back in the ground.
  • Only 7 percent of U.S. communities recycle wastewater.
  • Compare that to Israel, where more than 80 percent of household wastewater is recycled, with half of that going to irrigation.

Bottom line for the U.S.? Utilities lose enough water every six days to supply the nation for a day.

That infrastructure challenge of wasted water exists for many Western nations. Canada is one of the highest per capita users of water on the planet. The average person there generates 300 liters of waste water per day, compared to 20 to 30 liters in developing countries. Other developed countries show similar patterns.

That doesn’t have to be the case if strategies are adopted to more aggressively recycle “grey water ” within a community. What’s grey water? Quite simply, it’s the water we send down the drain from showers, toilets, sinks and other commercial and residential sources. Most of it disappears, draining into oceans, lakes or ground aquifers.

What if we could recycle that water and reuse it, and thus engage some of the expense of moving so much other water around?

Consider the Irvine Ranch Water District in California, which has had a recycled water program since 1961, serving areas such as Newport Beach and parts of Orange County. The results are impressive: recycled water meets some 21 percent of the area’s water demands. While initially aimed at water use for agriculture, it now provides services for landscape irrigation, industrial use and toilet flushing in commercial buildings. The system now delivers 23.5 million gallons of recycled water to more than 4,000 customers daily.

This is while water supply and access are becoming increasing challenges in many areas of the world.

In California, the energy cost of water is particularly expensive. In an article in The American Journal of Public Health, some of the numbers are pretty clear:

  • Pumping, treating, transporting and heating California’s water currently represent nearly 20 percent of the state’s energy use.
  • Much of this energy use is the result of a heavy reliance on “imported” water, because the majority of California’s water users are concentrated far from major water sources.
  • Transporting water via California’s State Water Project –the state-built water delivery and storage system — is 2 to 3 percent of the state’s total energy alone and results in roughly 4 million tons of greenhouse gas emissions per year.

The potential energy savings are huge if more recycled grey water is utilized. If 10 percent of imported water in California was replaced by recycled water, there would be a savings of 80 million kWh of energy annually .

It is estimated that some 9 percent of U.S. carbon emissions are related to transporting water, and that heating water totals 58 percent of the national energy footprint of water usage.

That’s why the grey water opportunity is clear.

One of the companies using technology to deal with the challenge is Nexus eWater. They market themselves as the world’s first home water and energy recycler, providing a solution for residential water reuse. Nexus has some pretty bold goals that can be met utilizing their system:

  • reducing city water into the home by up to 40 percent;
  • reducing sewage from the home by 70 percent;
  • reducing water heating energy by 70 percent;
  • generating total savings of $50 to $200 per month per home for water, sewer and electric bills, at least for the the River Islands community in Lathrop, California.
  • Oh, and harvesting rainwater as well.

How does it work? With advanced filtering and energy capture technologies, they provide recycled water of a quality that is safe to use on lawns and in toilets. In addition, they can capture the heat in grey water, and thus produce hot water using 75 percent less energy than that from the electrical grid. The cost? Currently at least $10,000 per home.

Nexus is just one such initiative. ReWater Systems, also based in California, offers a grey water solution that reuses sink, toilet, shower and other residential water for lawn and garden irrigation. Spend some time on crowdfunding sites like Kickstarter, and you can find all kinds of initiatives geared towards the idea.

There are plans to develop communities that employ efficient recycled water systems. The Sea Cliff community, under construction in San Diego, is specifically built with this purpose in mind. It is estimated that each of the 52 upscale homes there will save up to 100,000 gallons of water per year.

It’s clear there are leaders who are looking at this problem as an opportunity. I’d hazard a guess that this will be a pretty big growth market in the years to come.

What should you do?

As I suggest with any new area of opportunity, you should “think big, start small and scale fast.”

Gain some inspiration from the many initiatives in this area; and maybe take on a pilot grey water program. Learn from your efforts, and then determine how to go further, either from a simple residential project or an overall community initiative.

Here’s a new video from my Sao Paolo Worldskills keynote: I’m taking about the global water challenge, and opportunities that come from wastewater recycling.

In this context comes Nexus e-Water, an innovative and fascinating solution to encourage use of “grey water”.

The focus of my WorldSkills keynote was how skills, trades, knowledge and education would be challenged by accelerating rates of change. This type of technology is a really good example!