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Trends



We have seen more change in the last 5 years than we have seen in the last 100 – and yet there is much more yet to come.

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2017 will prove to be a watershed year as trends continue to accelerate. Self-driving cars, the Internet of Things, business model disruption, hyper-competition and hyper-connectivity, collaborative innovation, scientific acceleration, exponential technology, rapid product innovation, faster market change, empowered consumers — are you ready and focused on the trends that will continue to provide opportunity and challenge going forward?

Every year, organizations kick off a new year by bringing me in for a senior executive leadership meeting or corporate offsite strategic planning session, to get a clear and concise overview of what comes next, and what they should do about it.

2017 is almost here — are you prepared, and ready to kick off the year with the powerful insight that you need to know to move forward?

I’ll take you on a tour of the trends which are reshaping our world in a great way. Big transformative trends involving a renaissance in manufacturing enabled by 3D printing, advanced robotics and massive digitization, self-driving cars and the impact of intelligent highway infrastructure, space tourism, asteroid mining, vertical farming, and other fascinating fast paced trends!. Opportunities for the transformation of entire industries such as healthcare, sports and transportation through unprecedented levels of hyper-connectivity. The acceleration of ideas with science that are allowing us to solve some of the biggest challenges of our time in the world of education, healthcare, the environment and education. A generation of millennials who know that it is a great time to think big ideas and do great things with their boundless enthusiasm and global awareness.

It’s time to turn your mind to the future once again, restore a sense of hope and optimism, and link yourself to the fast paced trends which energize your outlook on opportunity! After all, 2017 is almost here! My clients include Disney, the PGA of America, NASA, Johnson & Johnson, the Swiss Innovation Forum and more — join this elite company and re-energize your view into the future.

Interested? Call me!

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“Using 3D-printed wax moulds for concrete components, we will have a completely different paradigm. This is transformative technology”.

It is perhaps the most staggering piece of artwork in the whole of human history, renowned for its accuracy in the depiction of the human body . Anyone who has seen it up close comes away in awe of the fact that someone had the ability to carve such a piece from stone.

Now, imagine, that one day we will see a 3D printer that could print Michelangelo’s David utilizing concrete and other advanced materials – and that if such a statue would be placed next to the original, most people would be unable to tell the difference!

Science fiction? Not to me.

That was one of my messages in my keynote last week for the American Concrete Institute, with with over 1,000 executives from this industry in the room. My job was to outline for them the opportunities that will come to the industry from embracing fast paced trends. And I put on the table for them the idea that the boldest goal in their industry would be accomplished when someone was able to print Michelangelo’s David utilizing a 3D printer.

It’s perhaps the equivalent of the well known Turing test, which is the ultimate challenge with computer technology — could a computer have the ability to exhibit intelligent behaviour equivalent to, or indistinguishable from, that of a human?

Farfetched? No. In fact, computer companies have been pursuing the goal of the Turing test in a feverish race.

This same thing will happen in the concrete industry with 3D printing — indeed, it’s a bold goal that some people are already thinking about in terms of the transformative trends sweeping the industry today.

Every industry has, or should have the equivalent of a Turing test. Think about robotics – how quickly will this industry mature? I just toured a robotics display at a museum in Philadelphia, and one display suggested that there should be a “Jetsons goal for robotics” –” the industry will have matured when it can build a robot that will be accepted by a family, just like Rosie the Robot from the popular 1960’s television cartoon.”

Here’s the thing — we might see these big bold bets be achieved sooner rather than later. I continually emphasize to my clients that the future is happening all around them, and that it’s happening faster than they think. In China, an entire 4,305 sq foot, 2 story home has been printed with a 3D printer, with walls as thick as 
8 feet and with 9 foot ceilings. It too 45 days from start to finish, and was printed in one go at the building site.

Consider this office building in Dubai which was printed in concrete using a 3D printer (from my slide deck).

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There are fascinating trends which come from the ability to 3D print with concrete. We can get more flexible designs, with concrete that is warped or twisted. Waste is significantly reduced, new design concepts are suddenly possible, and we can cut down on the cost of manufacturing. People are talking about the fact that it will lead us to an era in which we can “design for deconstruction” — printing in such a way that when a building is eventually decommissioned, we can dissassemble it rather than blowing it up!

Where is the world of construction headed? Consider this:

Your future home might be planned using virtual reality, built with a 3D printer and inspected by a robot for quality. What may sound like a sci-fi movie could become reality in a few decades as Singapore ramps up its construction productivity and employs more efficient building methods. Building with speed and quality through high-tech, Straits Times, Hong Kong, October 2016

Of course, 3D printing is already passe, I pointed out to my audience at the American Concrete Institute: people are already talking about 4D printing — which has materials that can change shape depending on the environemt they are in!

Bottom line? Consider this comment by Archite ct James Gardiner: “Using 3D-printed wax moulds for concrete components, we will have a completely different paradigm. This is transformative technology”.

What’s the Turing test or Michaelangelo’s David in your industry? And are you prepared to think in a big and bold way to get there before others do?

 

The Canadian Society of Association Executives had me write a series of articles with some of the unique challenges presented to associations in the context of fast-trends.

Here’s the 2nd one.

The nomadic worker carries different attitudes towards life and work, and rejects many of the currently accepted “norms” of the corporate environment. Their attitudes will revolutionize the world of work.

The nomadic worker carries different attitudes towards life and work, and rejects many of the currently accepted “norms” of the corporate environment. Their attitudes will revolutionize the world of work.

They provide good food for thought! More to come over the next week!

Nomadic Workers

The workforce is transformed as “nomadic workers” dominate the economy.

The number of full time jobs will continue to dramatically shrink – yet, we are only seeing the tip of the iceberg in the change of the relationship between employer and employee.  Companies will hire the best talent, regardless of where that person might be. A

new form of career competitiveness is emerging, with extreme competition for this group of nomadic workers – highly skilled individuals who call the shots.

All this in the context of a global economy in which where people work from won’t matter – a trend that has implications for the future of both rural and urban economies. Lifestyle choice will come to dominate career decisions.

The nomadic worker carries different attitudes towards life and work, and rejects many of the currently accepted “norms” of the corporate environment. Their attitudes will revolutionize the world of work.

The end result? The shape of tomorrow’s company won’t be defined by the walls in its offices – it will be defined by the reach of its computerized knowledge network, and its ability to tap into the skills and capabilities of the nomadic worker, at the right time, in the right place, for the right purpose.

Questions for Association Leaders

  • What are you doing to attract the new, independent contract worker into our association, and how do you remain relevant to their needs?
  • As your profession fragments into many different sub-specialties, how do you retain your relevance?

For years, I’ve made the observation that 65% of children in pre-school today will work in a job or career that does not yet exist. Given the rapid emergence of new careers around us today, it’s a statistic that is bearing fruit.

Given that, someone alerted me to the fact that the Dean and Vice Provost for Undergraduate Education at Duke University delivered a convocation speech to the class of 2018 quoting my thinking on the rapid emergence of new careers.

It was in August 2014 — and he challenging the new undergrads in the room to ask themselves about the future of their own careers in the context of their future education.

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A key skill of the future? ” A flexible, creative, and open mind, a mind that will continue to absorb new ideas and adapt to new ways of thinking throughout your life”

Here’s an extract:

Why you are here?’

My first reason has to do with the oft-stated and certainly accurate view that many of the jobs your generation will hold haven’t even been conceived of yet.  The futurist Jim Carroll suggests the imminent emergence of novel professions with colorful names such as “knowledge farmer,” “location intelligence professional,” and “mash manager.” If we don’t even know what a ”mash manager” is yet, how can we prepare you to excel in that job?

Moreover, how can we not only prepare you for professions that don’t yet exist, but help you be the ones who invent those jobs in the first place?

The answer is to train you not just with specific knowledge and skills, but to give you practice in maintaining a flexible, creative, and open mind, a mind that will continue to absorb new ideas and adapt to new ways of thinking throughout your life.  And to accomplish this, we do everything we can to broaden your perspective, not narrow it, from the structure of our curriculum to the ways we have you live together and to all the experiences you’ll have in between.

There is just so much in these few paragraphs that I will leave it at that, but will leave you with a phrase I coined years ago that I think is so critical when it comes to knowledge and education: the most important skill of the future is what I have come to call “just-in-time knowledge.”

One thing I always stress to potential clients is that they are getting much more than just a keynote or presentation for a leadership group — they are getting highly customized insight based on significant original research.

That fact has led to the client list that I have — which includes Disney, two (!) talks for NASA, the PGA of America and more….

I must admit, it’s always a thrill to read the tweets that are sent while you are on stage — realizing that you have really changed lives and changed perspectives!

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You know you are doing something right when you research gets carried further into the industry:

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To that end, here’s an overview of some of the talks I’ve done this fall:

  • Disruption and Change in the Insurance Industry: a keynote for GAMA International, a global organization for leaders in the global insurance/financial services industry. There’s a tremendous amount of change happening, and much more yet to come. What did I cover in my keynote? You can read about it in my post, Insurance and Innovation: The Challenge of Change . This is one of many talks I’ve done in the insurance industry over the years; I’ve done talks for most major property and life insurance companies at one time or another, and have shared the stage with CEO’s of many of the organizations in the industry.
  • The Future of Insurance Risk: continuing on the insurance theme, an opening keynote for the client conference of FMGlobal, a leading underwriter of insurance risk in the commercial real estate space. My talk took a look at a broad range of trends that will impact the future structure of buildings, architecture, manufacturing facilities and more. Over the years, I’ve done many talks that have looked at the trends impacting the world of commercial real estate.
  • The Future of Medical Device Technology & Healthcare: a talk for an innovation recognition dinner, and then a talk for key R&D staff, for Philips Respironics, a division of Philips Medical Devices, on how the industry will be transformed through hyper-connectivity, changing consumer behaviour, the acceleration of science and much more.
  • The Future of Education. I was the opening keynote speaker for the EdNet 2016 conference in Dallas, with several hundred senior executives from the “education knowledge industry” (aka textbooks) in the room. Read at overview of my talk, Forge Ahead and Move Fast, in an article from an industry publication.
  • Wealth Management and Industry Change: a private event for CEO’s of 40 companies, each with $1 billion+ in revenue, for a private equity company. It’s one of many talks that I do to help senior executives think about the trends that might impact their lines of business and investments – read more in a blog post, Global Wealth Managers Turn to Jim Carroll for Insight on Trends .  It’s kind of cool to think that family wealth managers for such groups as the Wrigley family foundation, the Rothschild’s, the Bill & Melinda Gates family office, and the  Google and many, many others, have turned to me for insight over the years.
  • The Future of Manufacturing: keynotes for the Association of High Tech Distributors in Napa Valley; for Alignex in Minneapolis; and then a rip-roaring motivational keynote full of the latest manufacturing trends for the the Greater Philadelphia Manufacturing conference. The tweets coming out of these events have been astonishing — people in the manufacturing sector are looking for hope and inspiration, and I seem to be giving it to them in spades. Read more at my post, The Disruption and Reinvention of Manufacturing.
  • The Future of Seniors Care: two talks in Nashville for senior executives from the North American assisted living and seniors care industry. I was booked by the American Healthcare Organization and the Centre for Assisted Living, and took a look at the opportunities that come from innovative thinking in dealing with one of the most significant challenges of our time.
  • The Future of Construction, Architecture and Infrastructure: a keynote to open the annual conference of the American Concrete Institute. They admitted to me that they’ve never engaged a keynote speaker to open their event — they’ve been rather ‘stuck’ in their ways, if you pardon the pun. Will they do it again! You bet — my talk took a look at what happens when the world of concrete is influenced by fast trends — 3D printing is coming to concrete, and its coming fast!
  • The Future of Rail and Manufacturing: a talk for Amsted Rail, one of the leading manufacturers in the rail industry. This talk involved a lot of intensive preparation, with about 6 pre-planning conference call with the team bringing me in, as well as very specific, detailed research.

 

The Canadian Society of Association Executives had me write a series of articles with some of the unique challenges presented to associations in the context of fast-trends. Over the new week, I’ll play out these articles in a series of blog posts. They provide good food for though!

Your future members will work in industries, businesses and organizations that evolve faster in terms of their focus, products, services and mandates - what are you doing to challenge your mandate to deal with that?

Your future members will work in industries, businesses and organizations that evolve faster in terms of their focus, products, services and mandates – what are you doing to challenge your mandate to deal with that?

Over 20 years, I’ve keynoted numerous association and meeting professional events. Check the Association section (under Trends) of my Web site for more!

Crowd Thinking

Crowd thinking has replaced most forms of peer research. Most long established medical and science journals have transitioned – big time – accepting a new form of instant crowd thinking as
the best way to evaluate the new world hyper-science. In an instant, a researcher can summon acrowd of vetted, quality specialists who have niche knowledge in a rapidly changing field.

The result? A further acceleration of knowledge and in the pace of the discovery of new ideas and concepts. The impact? Massive velocity in the development of new technologies,pharmaceuticals, medical devices and forms of treatment, agricultural concepts an methodologies — every industry and profession has seen a profound shift bigger than the once amazing macro-knowledge burst of the Manhattan project.

Questions for Association Leaders:

  • Are you capable of migrating the professional education component of our role, so that rapid advances with crowd thinking become part of the curriculum/training?
  •  How quickly will the acceleration of knowledge that comes from crowd thinking challenge our professional skill set?

The NEST Learning Thermostat is a great example of the type of typical business model disruption that we are going to witness in every industry through the next decade!

Give it a few years.

You won’t even recognize the industry you are operating in.

That’s because the rate of business model change is accelerating in every single industry. Here’s why:

  1. Right now, there are probably a bunch of really smart people figuring out to disrupt your business model
  2. If you aren’t busy thinking about to disrupt your business model, they most certainly will.
  3. They’ll probably do this sooner than you think they will.
  4. The result is that 10 years out (or less), your business model will look nothing like it does today.
  5. Those that do mess up your business model are quite likely to be younger than you; for many folks, age provides for complacency.
  6. The fundamental change to your business model driven by this younger generation will be the result of digital, smart, intelligent, location-oriented technology.
  7. They’ll use this technology in such a way they’ll come out of left field with a business model idea that you’ve never even thought of before.
  8. Their business model will carry an undeniable ‘coolness factor’ that you can’t simply match.
  9. Most likely, you’ll discount the importance of their innovation, until it is much too late.
  10. The result will be dramatic change :its likely that your current business model will not even survive: and your company might not as well!

Examples of this type of disruption are occurring all around us right now.

It’s going to happen to you too. So — what are you going to do about it?

 

It’s been a brutal and challenging time what with politics and an election, and much of the country seems to be wishing that it is over. It soon will be!

One unforeseen impact of the constant stream of negativity has been a storyline that the economy is in disarray; that America has seen its better days go by; and that the future is glum, chum!
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Which doesn’t match the reality of the opportunities that already exist in the world’s largest economy – an era of acceleration, with ideas, business models, science, technology and more — trends that place people and organizations at the edge of an era of unprecedented opportunity.

I’ve noticed that my keynotes of the last few months have revolved around this them, and it has resonated in a big way.

So much so, that this now deserves its own new keynote topic!

It’s easy to be great again — in fact, you just need to link future trends to a mindset of innovation!

Here you go America — here’s a motivational keynote for your innovation soul!

The Lessons of Powerful Optimism: Rethinking the Future Right Now

We have seen more change in the last 5 years than we have seen in the last 100. With economic, political, career and business model volatility all around us, it’s all too easy to fall prey to a swirl of negative thinking — with the result that you lose sight of the fascinating opportunities from what comes next.

The best antidote? An uplifting, hopeful and motivational view into the future with futurist Jim Carroll. In this engaging, humorous and yet powerfully refreshing keynote, he takes you on a tour of the trends which are reshaping our world in a great way. A renaissance in manufacturing enabled by 3D printing, advanced robotics and massive digitization, self-driving cars, space tourism, asteroid mining, vertical farming, and other fascinating fast paced trends. Opportunities for the transformation of entire industries such as healthcare, sports and transportation through unprecedented levels of hyper-connectivity. The acceleration of ideas with science that are allowing us to solve some of the biggest challenges of our time in the world of education, healthcare, the environment and education. A generation of millennials who know that it is a great time to think big ideas and do great things with their boundless enthusiasm and global awareness.

It’s time to turn your mind to the future once again, restore a sense of hope and optimism, and link yourself to the fast paced trends which energize your outlook on opportunity!

We live in interesting times, to say the least. It’s a time in which some people see the future, and see despair.

I see the future and see nothing but opportunity. And that’s the message I am carrying on stage at every event — including the industry that seems to be defining the gloom of the US election cycle – manufacturing.

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The reaction to my keynotes in the manufacturing sector in the last 3 weeks has been staggering. What I’m witnessing is an industry that is seeking a message of hope, a dose of optimism, and specific guidance on how to align themselves to a future of opportunity.

What’s the reality of this industry? We live in transformative times — there is so much opportunity around us today it is staggering!

The acceleration of ideas is leading to new discoveries at a pace that rivals anything in the past: such as the rapid emergence of sophisticated new manufacturing methodologies. 3d printing or additive manufacturing, the Internet of things, process reinvention, the opportunity that comes from rapid prototyping. The massiveness that is the global maker community! The list goes on.

In the last 3 weeks, I’ve done keynotes on the future opportintities in the world of manufacturing events in Napa Valley, Minneapolis, and in Philadelphia. Folks in the industry are feeling battered and bruised, and have been convinced that the North American manufacturing sector continues in a state of decline.

What I’m witnessing from the reaction and feedback on my talks is an industry that is seeking a message of hope, a dose of optimism, and specific guidance on how to align an organization to a future of opportunity.

If you do anything in this industry today, open up your mind to the opportunity that surrounds you. Don’t succumb to the negativity that surrounds you! Those who embrace the future in this industry today are those who will own the future. If that is your mindset — give me a call!

Is your organization an innovation laggard, a timid warrior without the resolve to try to achieve great things?

A common focus for many of the keynotes I’ve given for senior executive as of late revolves around the theme, ‘what is it that world class innovators do that others don’t do?”

Over a period of time of 20 years, I’ve had the opportunity to observe and learn from many organizations as to what they are doing to deal with a time that involves both massive challenge as well as significant opportunity.

Everyone is being impacted by business model disruption, the emergence of new competitors, the impact of technology, the collapse of product lifecycle, ongoing political volatility and ever-more challenging customers.

In that context, it’s clear that those very things which might worked for them in the past might be the very anchors that could now hold them back in the future. In the era of Uber, Tesla and Amazon, leaders must have the insight into unique opportunities for innovation and change.

That’s why they are booking me, as I am providing them with a customized overview of the key trends impacting them, and invaluable leadership lessons that provide a clear path for going forward.

What are some of these lessons? Here’s a short list:

  • fast beats big: In a time of unprecedented change, those who are prepared to think fast are those who are moving forward. Those who move fast get things done, and keep getting things done. Others wallow in a state of aggressive indecision; inaction breeds decay.
  • bold beats old: all around you right now, there are countless numbers of people and organizations who are out to mess up your business model. Given that, are you the Elon Musk of your industry, prepared to think big and take big bold steps? Or is your organization an innovation laggard, a timid warrior without the resolve to try to achieve great things? Bold thinkers make bold steps, aggressive moves, and big decisions. This is not a time for timidity; it’s a time for BIG ideas and the pursuit of the offbeat.
  • velocity trumps strategy: careful strategic planning can be a critical step in adapting to the future, but in some areas, things are happening so fast that you can’t take the time to strategize: you just need to jump in and go. That’s experiential capital it’s one of the most important investments that you need to be making now. Understand what it is, and why you need to be investing in it NOW.
  • flexibility beats structure: successful innovators have mastered the ability to form fast teams: they know their that their ability to quickly scale resources to tackle fast emerging opportunities or challenges are the only way that they can win in the future. They avoid the organizational sclerosis that bogs too many organizations down
  • disruptors destroy laggards: step into any industry, and there are people who are busy messing about the fundamental business models which have long existed. Start your own disruption before you find yourself disrupted
  • connectivity is the new loyalty: with the forthcoming dominance of mobile technology in everyday lives, everything you know about customer relationships is dead. Right now, it’s all about exploring and building new relationships throughout the mobile data cloud in which the customer lives. If you don’t get that, your brand is dead.
  • location is the new intelligence: with connectivity comes location, which results in new applications, business models, methods of customer interaction, and just about everything. If you don’t have a location strategy for your business, you really don’t understand how quickly your world is changing around you

For more on this thinking, check out the ‘innovation’ tag on my blog.