Jim Carroll- Futurist, Trends & Innovation Keynote Speaker

Jim Carroll speaks to the annual general meeting of the PGA of America, challenging them to think about what happens “when science speeds up.”

Back in February, I flew into Aspen, Colorado, to speak at the leadership meeting for a major consulting firm. My topic? An extremely customized keynote on the trends and opportunities that are unfolding with the new era of analytics and what has come to be known as “big data.”

There was a tremendous amount of customized research for the event; it’s a big topic, so to speak. After that, I ended up focusing my upcoming May CAMagazine column on some of the ideas and concepts that I covered.

Cashing in on Big Data
CAMagazine, May 2012 

By analyzing and tying together massive amounts of information, we can change the way we conduct business, manage healthcare, work in the world of agriculture or manage energy consumption.

Have you ever noticed how, all of a sudden, a new phrase enters our lexicon and becomes the next big thing? So it is with “big data.” If you

haven’t heard this term yet, you will. What is it?

By analyzing and tying together massive amounts of information, we can change the way we conduct busi- ness, manage healthcare, work in the world of agriculture or manage energy consumption.

As everything around us plugs into the Internet — thermostats, fridges, washers, dryers, industrial HVAC equipment — we are generating huge amounts of information. Companies can examine this information through powerful analytical software to look for unique patterns and insight, which might then help to drive key business decisions.

Consider the energy industry, for example. The NEST thermostat, created by one of the original iPad designers, can recognize you when you walk in the room and adjust the heat to your favourite temperature. It’s also plugged into the Internet — and that’s where the potential for big data comes in.

Imagine the possibilities for an energy company to easily poll how millions of customers are using energy through such thermostats — and to then link that data with a deep analysis of upcoming weather patterns. Suddenly, it can predict and manage upcoming spikes in energy consumption, which could have a direct impact on the purchase of natural gas or other sources of energy. Through this analysis, it can do a far better job of managing its costs.

IBM expects big data to be a large driver of future growth, noting that “there are upwards of a trillion inter- connected and intelligent objects and organisms .. all of this is generating vast stores of information. It is estimated that there will be 44 times as much data and content coming over the next decade …reaching 35 zettabytes in 2020. A zettabyte is a 1 followed by 21 zeros.”

In the field of agriculture, people have been talking for years about the concept of “precision agriculture.” A farmer would use a system which knows, for each particular square yard of ground, how much fertilizer and seed to apply, based on real-time data insight and GPS information.

That world is arriving pretty quickly. Kenna, a data analytics firm in Mississauga, Ont., has put together a system which cross references customer purchase data to weather patterns to real-time tractor position based on GPS to do just that, with the goal of helping a farmer get the best yield possible.

Las Vegas is said to be using the idea of deep analytical research to offer a free lunch to a slot payer who is marginally closer to a payout — thereby reducing it’s risk.

Of course, there are big opportunities in big data. The data and analytics market is already worth an estimated $64 billion according to global management consultants McKinsey & Co. The firm also predicts there will be a shortfall of 140,000 to 190,000 graduates with deep analytical talent by 2018. Similarly, a survey by data giant EMC suggests that 65% of data professionals expect a significant shortage in “big data” skills expertise in just five years.

Accountants are, of course, supposed to be the folks with deep analytical insight. Do we have the capability to step up to the big opportunity that is unfolding here?

I do a tremendous number of keynotes in the agricultural sector — from groups such as the Texas Cattlemen’s Association to the Mid-America Crop Protection Association to the US Farm Credit Co-op. As I note on my agriculture trends page, I “spent so much time customizing the presentation for one agricultural conference that at the conclusion, one fellow came up and asked him how long I had been a farmer!“

With that in mind, I just got off the phone from a planning conversation for an upcoming agricultural keynote for the Grain Farmers of Ontario annual conference occurring this March.

I was speaking about generational turnover on the farm, the rapid emergence of new agricultural methodologies, and the impact of a significant acceleration in the science of agriculture.

Which brought me to mention an article I wrote way back in 2004, “I found the future of manure!” for Profit Magazine. Though a bit dated, it still helps to put in perspective some very critical and important trends — no matter what line of business you happen to be in.

What led to the article was that during my research, I discovered that a new career had emerged in this sector – professional manure managers. Heck, they even have their own magazine, Manure Manager. http://www.manuremanager.com/

Can you apply the rules of “I found the future in manure” to your particular industry? Probably!

“Believe it or not, manure can teach us a great deal about the future of business.” I wrote that back in 2004, and I still think it holds truth today!

Here’s the article!

Earlier this month, I was down in Amarillo, Texas, where I was the opening keynote speaker for Day 2 of the annual conference of the Texas Cattlefeeders Association.

Jim Carroll - "I'm willing to admit that it was the first time I've ever had audience members getting their boots shined before my keynote address! But talk about an audience focused on innovation!"

The event was lined as the result of another keynote I did in Sonoma County, California last April, where I spoke to a  gathering that included “what were probably the top 100 cattle, stockyard and feedlot operators in the US.” I reported on that event in a post, “Agriculture 2020: Innovation, growth & opportunity.”

The common theme to both of these keynotes? There is massive, significant opportunity for global growth in the agricultural sector. While there might be a lot of short term volatility due to the daily twists and turns with the global economy, one undeniable fact remains: global food production has to double over the next several decades to keep up with population growth and increasing food intake, particularly within emerging economies. I’ve found with both of these audiences that there is a relentless sense of optimism, and certainly a pretty significant openness to new ideas and opportunities for innovation. Read the post about “agriculture 2020″ and you’ll get a sense of the reasons for their optimism.

That’s why I was fascinated to come across an article (“Future of ag is all about refrigerators“) that appeared in the Farm & Dairy Blog back in October (its the official for the well known Farm & Dairy Newspaper) that covered  my thinking and message in a nutshell:

“We still face a global food market — a world population that stands at 6.9 billion and could reach 7 billion by the end of October.

If those numbers make your head spin and you really feel disconnected from that reality, think about refrigerators instead.

Carroll reminds us, as other have, that the growing population also has a growing segment with greater income, and they will eat more meat. He cites figures that estimate per capita meat consumption growth from 2000 to 2030 of 49 percent in China, 79 percent in India, and 22 percent in Brazil, for example.

And in India, the number one consumer product on an individual’s wish list is a television.

Number two? A refrigerator.

“Right now, refrigerators have only a 13 percent market penetration,” Carroll wrote in a blog post earlier this year.

“Talk about opportunities for growth.”

 Sometimes the easiest way to think about future trends is to forget all the fancy analysis, detailed summaries, and simply concentrate on one simple statistic and trend. Most people in the world don’t have a refrigerator. Many want to have one. That fact alone is going to drive agriculture forward at a furious pace.

Farm & Dairy wasn’t the only one to pick up on this theme: over at The Social Silo (“Agriculture gets wired”), an article appeared, “Five Farm Things to Chew On This Week“, which offered up some “food for thought” for those in the agriculture sector.

Their last point? Refrigerators!

We’ve heard so much about world population growth and “who will feed the world,” that we’ve actually become a little distanced from that conversation. But the reality is this: As more people worldwide increase their income and class standing, they will eat more meat. In India, the number one item on wish lists is a television. The second wish? No, not a car, but a refrigerator, says futurist Jim Carroll. “Right now, refrigerators have only a 13 percent market penetration. Talk about opportunities for growth,” Carroll wrote in his blog last spring.

Carroll predicts per capita meat consumption growth from 2000 to 2030 will be 49 percent in China, 79 percent in India, and 22 percent in Brazil.

That alone should give you something to chew on.

Of course, agricultural producers have to balance the reality of growth with innovation in methods involving production, due to growing concerns about sustainability, safety and quality. The Farm & Dairy article went on to observe this issue around innovation.

We’re going to need more food, but we’re going to have to produce it more sustainably. That will take innovation, new ways of thinking, and new ways of farming.

Carroll predicts we’ll see more change on the farm in the next 10 years than we’ve seen in the last 50, and he might be right. Today’s farmer has reinvented himself at least once in his lifetime, and will have to be ready to reinvent his farm again.

Ag entrepreneurs will flourish. The opportunity is there for the future of agriculture. Just open the refrigerator.

I must admit, it certainly is a thrill to work with folks throughout the agriculture sector — I do find this to be one of the most innovative sectors of the population. That might come as a surpass to many people, who often view farmers and ranchers as folks who are stuck in tradition. Nothing could be further from the truth — the sector has come to accept innovation as a core virtue for years.

Indeed, I wrote about this way back in 2005, when i was out there talking to the theme, “I Found the Future in Manure: How to Capitalize on the Rapid Evolution of Science”. Those series of keynotes were based on the very theme of innovation that I was discovering throughout the agriculture sector in the early part of 2000-2001. I even ended up writing an article that made it into my Ready, Set, Done book, called “I found the future in manure!”

One thing I’ve come to appreciate is that farmers and ranchers and those who support theme can be some of the most innovative people on the planet. Here’s a video clip from a keynote to a US Military conference in Dallas — yes, the military — and I’m describing to them the unique innovation insight that can be learned from farmers.

 If you want to master innovation — then think about refrigerators, and think like a farmer!

More information:

• Farm & Dairy: The future of ag is in refrigerators 
• Agriculture 2020: Innovation, opportunity and growth 
• Farm Progress Magazine: Texas Cattlefeeders will Beef Up in Amarillo 
• Food industry trends 2011: Report from a keynote 
• Blog post: I found the future in manure 
  
• 2004 article: “I found the future in manure!” 

I found myself in Sonoma County, California earlier this week; I was the opening speaker for a small corporate conference that featured what were probably the top 100 cattle, stockyard and feedlot operators in the US.

This was a pretty heavy duty event, so to speak, with some individuals representing ranches with upwards of 30,000 to 50,000 head of cattle. We’re talking billion-dollar operations here. A very exclusive group – as noted in the invitation, the sponsors ” have partnered to create an advanced leadership development curriculum entitled the 4C Summit – an experience that will be unlike any other ever offered in animal agriculture.”

My role? To encourage this group to think about future trends in the world of agriculture and food production; opportunities for innovation; and how to live out on the edge in terms of thinking about big ideas.

What the client DIDN’t want was what he found  from a lot of other innovation speakers he spoke to, who seemed to offer up the same refrain: “Plug into Twitter, get onto Facebook, get social, and you’ve mastered innovation!”

Uggh. Yah, right! Real innovation comes from studying obvious future trends, and aligning yourself to those trends to seize opportunity and achieve growth.

So it was a thrill to speak to such an exclusive group — and I had a lot of ground to cover! First off, recognizing that this could be a dispirited crowd given past trends — they could be in a mindset that might not encourage innovative thinking.

After all, as I pointed out, they’ve suffered from:

• stagnant growth (6.4% over 25 years) while imports have tripled
• a continuing drop in the number of feedlots
• consolidation of buyers (top 4 meatpackers control 80% of market from 36% in 1980), which give them fewer options
• an overall decline in consumption in the US (94.3 lbs per capita to 59.1lbs from 1976 to today….)

What’s the result of these trends, and the impact of the recent recession? Aggressive indecision — a mindset that I’ve talked about on this blog for a long time.

“Many ranchers are wary of investing in expanding their herds, even with exports rising and prices climbing, because “they’re uncertain about the future,” said Gregg Doud, chief economist at the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association, which represents ranchers and feedlots.” Where’s the Beef: Food Inflation Fears, Wall Street Journal, August 2010

Yet given this uncertainty, what are the trends that drive the opportunity for innovation? I covered many; here’s a few.

1. There is massive, significant opportunity for global growth.

The statistics are simple and clear:

• the world’s population will increase 47%, to 8.9 billion, by 2050
• a simple fact: global agriculture production must double to sustain growth
• a stark reality: little new arable land will come to play a role in that production

In other words, existing producers will have to double production to keep up with global demand.

Clearly, a substantial number of people are entering the global middle class through the next decade; as noted by McKinsey: “Almost a billion new consumers will enter the global marketplace in the next decade …. with an income level that allows spending on discretionary goods.”

As this transition to middle class occurs, entire societies will transition to a diet that involves more consumption of meat. In India, the #1 “aspirational purchase” is a television. What do you think is #2? If you said a car, you are wrong — it’s a refrigerator! And right now, refrigerators have only a 13% market penetration! Talk about opportunities for growth.

The opportunity is clear – per capita meat consumption growth from 2000 to 2030 will be 49% in China, 79% in India, and 22% in Brazil.

2. There are significant long term trends that will drive global agricultural innovation and opportunity, if approached from the right perspective

I also covered four key trends that will have a huge impact on agriculture from every single perspective:

• food security becomes a foremost “national interest” agenda
• significant international agricultural investments
• sustainability practices moves to the forefront of customer agenda
• food quality and safety ratings become commonplace

On the first issue — we are going to witness many nation states work fast to ensure the security of their food supply. We are seeing it happen now with China, in order that it can ensure a sustainable reliable supply of food for its population in the future. How big an issue this is this?

“Food security will be the greatest challenge to civilization this century, with shortages leading to higher prices, political instability and mass migration, warn scientists, farmers and academics.” Looming food crisis showing on our shelves Sunday Age, April 2011

The issue of food security leads to the second big trend, and that is significant international agricultural investments. Quite simply, there’s a lot of investment money sloshing around involving agriculture.

“The World Bank reported this month that the number of large-scale farmland deals in 2009 amounted to about 45 million hectares, compared with an average of less than 4 million hectares each year from 1998 through 2008.” Investors bet the farm, Los Angeles Times, September 2010

“Food manufacturers, retailers and WWF are joining forces to address how to feed the world’s population, writes Paul Myers. When the World Wildlife Fund engages the ideologically distant interests of the cattle industry, Coca-Cola and McDonald’s to discuss global food production, it’s clear something is cooking…..Unlikely alliance, Sydney Morning Herald, February 2011

What is cooking is an effort by these organizations to move to sustainability practices to the forefront, in order to respond to consumer demand. And what the sustainability trend leads to is a world in which food quality and safety ratings become commonplace.

Wal-Mart, which sells more than 20 per cent of all US groceries, is developing an eco-labelling program that will give a green rating to all items sold in its 7500 stores worldwide…. Unlikely alliance, Sydney Morning Herald, February 2011

This will trickle right down to the farm and the ranch: agriculture is going to have to demonstrate sustainability at a micro-level:

“A group of cattle producers in Gippsland, Victoria, is marketing beef sourced from properties with independently audited environmental management systems that comply with the international ISO 14001 standard. Their “enviromeat beef”, sourced from 15 suppliers, is thought to be the first labelled food product backed by an environmental management system in Australia.” Unlikely alliance, Sydney Morning Herald, February 2011

Many farmers and ranchers might view these issues as a challenge, and a threat. But as I emphasized in my keynote, “Some people see a trend and see a threat. Others see opportunity!” The key innovation opportunity is now to work within these new realities in order to stay ahead of what the customer demands!

3. Ranchers need to think big! There are huge transformative opportunities!

In my keynotes, I always try and challenge the team to adapt to the mindset of Bill Gates, who observed that “we always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten.”

I always pull out a number of examples of some of the big, bold, whacky innovative thinking that is occurring in any particular industry.

I’ve long observed that one of the key global economic drivers is that a lot of people are spending a lot of time solving the big problems faced by the industrialized world. In my “Where’s the Growth” trends document, I make the observation:  ”What’s likely to lead us out of this recession? A combination of bold goals on energy and the environment, significant investment in health care to fix a system that is set for absolutely massive challenges, combined with high-velocity innovation in all three sectors.”

In the spirit of that observation, think about this report!

America’s dairy farmers could soon find themselves in the computer business, with the manure from their cows possibly powering the vast data centers of companies like Google and Microsoft…..With the right skills, a dairy farmer could rent out land and power to technology companies and recoup an investment in the waste-to-fuel systems within two years, Hewlett-Packard engineers say in a research paper to be made public on Wednesday…According to H.P.’s calculations, 10,000 cows could fuel a one-megawatt data center, which would be the equivalent of a small computing center used by a bank.

”The cows will never replace the hydroelectric power used by a lot of these data centers,” Mr. Kanellos said. ”But there is interest in biogas, and this presents another way to make manure pay.”“One Moos and One Hums, But the Could Help Power Google”, New York Times, May 2010

Whacky? Crazy? Who is to say! I actually wrote about this opportunity back in 2004 when I penned my “I found the future in manure” article!

4. Innovators concentrate on all kinds of innovation opportunities

I’ve always stressed that people can challenge themselves to innovate by focusing on 3 key questions; what can we do to run the business better, grow the business, and transform the business.

In that context, for these ranchers, there’s plenty of innovation opportunity. When it comes to running the business better, there is a massive opportunity for the continued deployment of technology to better manage the herrd, deal with food safety and tracability issues, manage the health of the herd; the list is endless! Growth of the business? Consider the opportunities that come about with direct-to-consumer relationships as our world of connectivity continues to expand. Transform the business?  Change the business model! One Australian group was faced with the challenge of getting fresh meat to Indonesia — and so they built the MC Becrux — basically a floating stockyard for thousands of head of cattle! (I admit, to go forward this will have to be done to fit into the sustainability model….)

5. Innovators ride accelarating rates of change

Quite simply, there’s a lot of scientific driven innovation in the agricultural sector. One conference I spoke at noted that we are seeing a lot of “advances in genomics, combinatorial chemistry, high throughput screening, advanced formulation, environmental science and toxicology, precision breeding, crop transformation, nanotechnology, synthetic biology and bio-informatics are tools that will transform the industry.”

It couldn’t be said better. Even the field of animal genomics is evolving at a furious pace — the same trend in which Moore’s law is driving down the cost of sequencing the human gene, so too it is with animal genetics, which has a big potential impact on the quality of future production.

6. Innovators adapt to accelerating generational change

Perhaps the biggest trend occurring in agriculture today is that we are seeing a generational turnover. As the family farm and industrial ranch transition from the baby boomer to today’s 25-30 year, there will be more rapid ingestion of new technologies. Quite simply, we are going to witness more change on the farm and ranch in the next ten years than we have seen in the last 50! That’s providing even yet more opportunity for innovation.

—-

As always, I had a lot of interaction with the audience through Q&A, and live text message polling. I walked through the innovation killer attitudes that I often talk about, and asked the audience what they thought they were most guilty of. Here’s what they had to say!

Overall, it was a great day, a great keynote, with a lot of the unique research and background that I take on for this type of assignment!

Yesterday I spoke to several thousand people as the closing keynote speaker for the 2010 Fresh Summit for the Produce Marketing Association in Orlando. I focused on several issues, including the rapid changes occurring in the world of retail and consumer change.

But in addition, my message included insight into how innovative people focus on opportunity, not threat; on growth, not fear. It’s an important message right now, given the continued economic volatility.

Coincident with my keynote, the Produce Marketing Association published an article in Fresh magazine.

Are you guilty of aggressive indecision?

Fresh Magazine, Fall 2010

Acknowledged as a leading global futurist, Jim Carroll is also an author and motivator with a massive global blue chip client list. He helps transform growth-oriented organizations into high-velocity innovation heroes.

How many times in the past two years have you heard this sentiment: We’re not going to pursue that opportunity right now due to the current business climate? Jim Carroll calls this mindset aggressive indecision, and believes it is a trap that all too regularly blocks progress and ensnares opportunity.

Jim Carroll considers this most recent recession the fifth downturn he’s experienced, a sentiment that suggests he is a seasoned Boomer who has been around long enough to pos- sess a decent perspective on the cyclical nature of markets. And, while he acknowledges that every downturn has had its challenges, he reminds us that each has also been followed by a recovery.

But rather than simply saying to look on the bright side, Jim points to what he calls Long-term Transformative Trends. “These are the big issues that will impact our lives 15 years down the road,” he outlines. He invites us to calm our fears, to step back from the precipice, and take a look at what these big changes mean and the opportunities they present.

“I can’t be a futurist and be a pessimist,” states Carroll. “When I look ahead, I see nothing but opportunity. We are constantly witnessing the birth of new industries, new jobs, new careers. These transformative trends represent huge potential.”

So just what are some of these transformative trends? Carroll covers five here:

Healthcare: With an increased focus on healthy lifestyles, a greater emphasis will be placed on managing diet by in- creasing the use of fruits and vegetables. This represents enormous opportunities for the produce industry to create innovative ways to differentiate and market existing products and come up with new varieties and packaging solutions.

Demographics: Ethnicities will represent a larger percentage of the population, which will result in different demands. Carroll tells the story of two farmers, one of whom continued to plant the same crops year after year, even though he was losing money. The other one saw that there were more ethnic groups demanding more egg- plant, so he switched his crops to eggplant, resulting in his unprecedented prosperity.

Ethical Packaging: There will continue to be a push to create more efficient packaging that has less impact on the environment. Wal-Mart has set a goal date of 2015 to be completely envi- ronmentally friendly in its packaging. Other companies are following suit.

Retailer/Consumer Relationships: Citing companies such as Apple and Trader Joe’s, Carroll notes that the retail landscape is changing in terms of brand loyalty and customer relationship. As social media infiltrates our culture, mobile technologies with apps that generate electronic coupons will influence pur- chasing decisions, as will greater in-store promotions.

Smaller Niche Markets: With more single consumers living in large cities, an opportunity will be created for portion size, consumer relationship. It doesn’t take a social scientist to see that large department stores are losing market share to smaller niche stores.

“Twenty years from now, we [Boomers] will have less of an impact on what happens in the world,” admits Carroll. “If we can acknowledge that the world is changing, step away from the fear, and make the decision to adapt,” he believes that the opportunities are virtually limitless

Welcome to the folks from FarmSecure – Great to see you here!

Over the last fifteen years as a futurist and innovation expert, I’ve spoken to a tremendous number of agricultural groups. This has often included large groups of farmers, attending an event where I’ve been asked to speak at a community economic development event.

These talks have long involved a lot of research into key agricultural trends. And one thing I’ve come to appreciate is that farmers can be some of the most innovative people on the planet. Here’s a video clip from a keynote to a US Military conference in Dallas — yes, the military — and I’m describing to them the unique innovation insight that can be learned from farmers.

What are the trends they are innovating with? Take a look at 10 Key Trends for Agriculture.

In February, I was the closing keynote speaker for the American Nursery and Landscape Association. This was a second booking by this group; they had me in previously for a leadership meeting in Vail.

Here’s a clip in which I’m setting the stage for the rapid changes occuring in their industry: in the context of how quickly basic knowledge is evolving, suggesting that “learning is what most adults will do for a living in the twenty first century.”

Does this line of thinking apply to garden store managers/owners? You bet — individuals in the nursery and gardening industry indeed have to be masters of fast knowledge. There is a regular and ongoing release of new products; new store formats; new retail and branding methodologies; not to mention the need to have a lot of innovative strategies as to growing the business during a recession, or managing costs to survive challenging times. It’s all about learning, sharing ideas, and gaining new insight. Continually learning.

If you’ve been reading the press, you know that recently, many meetings and events have been under attack, driven by what has come to be known as the “AIG effect.” Quite a few organizations have cancelled leadership meeting, fearing that it might look bad. Yet any politician or journalist continuing to beat up on the meetings industry should watch the video that “Today’s Garden Center” magazine has put online; it’s a video called “What I Learned at ANLA Management Clinic 2009.”

In it, we’ve got nursery, garden and landscape managers from across the US — small business owners — talking about the things they’ve learned at the conference; the ideas they’re taking away; the specific actions they’re going to pursue from what they’ve learned.

It’s a pretty compelling video, and if anything, it really puts into perspective what these events are all about.

More information

• Watch: What I Learned at ANLA Management Clinic 2009

I was the opening keynote speaker for CropLife Canada back in December; this article just came in, summarizing my keynote:

Jim Carroll’s keynote address on innovation – while offering solid advice for rising above the current economic maelstrom – contained some immutable truths: baby boomers in business could learn a lot from the ‘wired generation’ who have grown up with computer gear virtually fused to their bodies. Representing more than mere gadgetry, this technological panoply is in fact symbolic of an attitude which unselfconsciously embraces change, promotes exploration and
engenders innovation in all possible forms.

The simple, demographic reality, Jim Carroll declared, is that the post-baby boomers “are the folks who are going to play the primary role in moving agriculture forward into the future. This wired generation is taking the reins of power. They inhale change. They breathe by technology.” Agri-business can take a cue from their curiosity and fearlessness by scrutinizing existing corporate notions of innovation, intensifying focus and taking deliberate action.

Jim’s observations as a trend-spotter lead him to state that the economy, by nature, is volatile. It is transitional. Periods of economic crisis have occurred time and again; as such, there is no need for panic, pessimism or what he terms ‘aggressive indecision’.

“My challenge to you is: when do you start to innovate? Are you going to wait until we’re out of this thing? What innovation leaders do is to decide, ‘Okay, we’re in a period of uncertainty, a rough time… but we’re not going to be innovation laggers. We are going to focus on innovation as a core strategy right now.’”

The familiar phrase ‘rapid change’ scarcely hints at today’s rate of change in the marketplace, with emergence of new business, new competitors and ever-expanding consumer choice. Highly accelerated changes in the business arena now call for split-second response, so the all-important question is, ‘How do we become a high-velocity organization?’

“We’re in an era of instant obsolescence,” said Jim, citing media mogul Rupert Murdoch’s avowal that with the world evolving so rapidly, it isn’t necessarily the big organizations that are going to control the future. “It’s the fast organizations, the agile organizations – the organizations that can change quickly who will have a leg up. Fast beats big anytime.”

Stay focused on opportunity. Set bold short-term goals. Commit immediately to three new ideas. Jim urged his audience to reframe the concept of innovation itself by turning fundamental concepts upside down. “Innovators get ahead by looking at the world around them and realizing there is an absolute flood of new ideas and new ways of doing
things. ”

‘Think about our world today compared to ten years ago. Ten years ago, the pace of scientific advance was really, really slow. But compare it to today. Everybody’s plugged in; we’re all plugged into this global idea machine. What that’s doing is speeding up fundamental science on an exponential basis. So structure for velocity, focus on faster knowledge
deployment and partner up to better adapt to what’s coming. Think big by focusing on growth. You have to try to do things you haven’t done before. Innovation is all about risk.”

I’ll keynote a major agricultural conference tomorrow morning, with an audience of plant science companies as well as a group of grain growers. There are about 300-400 people in the room.

Here’s a video clip from a keynote in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, where I spoke of the mindset that is often found in the world of agriculture — in that there are “two types of farmers.” Ask yourself — no matter what industry you are in — whether you see a similar mindset.

Then ask yourself if your own “future-positive” attitude has been sliding into the “apathetic / pessimistic” category as of late. Probably so!

But here’s the thing: despite economic turmoil, there is still no lack of innovation in agriculture, as in many industries. Just read a bit of the backgrounder for this conference: agriculture is “currently in the midst of a technology explosion in plant science. Advances in genomics, combinatorial chemistry, high throughput screening, advanced formulation, environmental science and toxicology, precision breeding, crop transformation, nanotechnology, synthetic biology and bio-informatics are tools that will transform …. global agriculture in ways never before imagined. These technologies will also take agriculture beyond food and feed production, with applications in health, nutrition, medicine, energy, industrial materials and the environment.”

You can’t really disagree with anything there.

The challenge right now is that rapid global turmoil is challenging the ability of innovators — such as those in the room tomorrow — to keep momentum going; to see the the adoption of new ideas and methodologies. There’s not a lot of innovation risk capital out there right now.

That’s why a good part of the message in the room tomorrow morning will focus on the “pendulum.” It’s likely that given fast paced economic events, far too many people are swinging over to the “apathetic/pessimistic camp,” away from the “future-positive camp,” and not thinking about the longer term implications of rapid-science driven innovation.

Back during the dot.com bust, many people convinced themselves there wasn’t a lot of upside to come from technology. How wrong they were: their pendulum had swung too far. And that’s what’s going on in almost every single industry out there today. Innovators refuse to let that happen, and look for opportunities of disruptive innovation that they can pursue today.

I was in Colorado Springs yesterday, as the opening keynote of the Leadership Institute for Directors for FCCServices — they’re the business services arm of the US federal Farm Credit System.

In attendance were members of the Boards of Directors for a wide variety of state and community farm credit co-ops; these folks are the backbone of the US farm lending infrastructure. The Directors are local farmers, community leaders and business executives, and hence, need to be aware of the trends impacting the local and global agricultural industries, so that they can plan accordingly, assess risk, and make sound business decisions with respect to their co-ops.

My keynote took a look at “what comes next in the agricultural sector” – it’s one of many talks I do within the industry. And agriculture is certainly subject to high velocity change: there’s rapid evolution in science (bio-crops); new markets (bio-fuel) ; rapidly changing skills; new direct to consumer market opportunities; globalization (current food production must double in the next 30 years to keep up with global population growth.) All of which could spell opportunity if approached correctly — or turmoil and challenge if ignored.

The intent of the talk — and the overall theme of the leadership conference — was to ensure that these folks have the insight to direct their organizations into the future. That’s an important and critical role for Boards; and FCC Services is an example of an organization that has made sure that the “future” is closely linked to the issue of “governance.”

I think there are too many organizations that don’t do this. Sadly, with all the current focus on “compliance,” I’ve come to believe that there is a critical lack of future planning on many other corporate boards around the world. The result is that potential risks are often ignored; then things go wrong; then the company gets sued for significant sums of money. Is this Board negligence? That’s an interesting question, isn’t it!

Here’s an example: years ago, I wrote an article indicating that one of the critical CEO/Board level issues that must be addressed had to do with network security; certainly, everyone knows that organizations should properly secure their information assets. Yet in the article, I suggested that I believe that many Boards aren’t dealing with the issue, and that it was an area ripe for future exposure, noting that:

“If I were a tort lawyer, I’d be licking my lips in anticipation of the opportunities to come in the next few years.”

Boards and CEO’s should ensure — as they are required to do with financial controls — that the information assets of the organization are properly locked down. They must understand obvious future trends, and ensure that management has planned accordingly. I strongly believe this to be the next wave in Board responsibility.

Do many Boards of Directors ensure that the organization is properly preparing for the rapidity of trends? Not many. Witness the shenanigans with the TJX Group, which had its corporate network hacked and millions of credit card numbers stolen. (The company runs HomeGoods, Marshalls, A.J. Wright, Bob’s Stores and The Maxx stores; in Canada the chain consists of Winners and HomeSense.) Now comes news that a group of banks want to sue the company with respect to the issue.

I can only imagine the questions that the Board of TJX is now asking!

Currently, much of the focus of board governance has to do with “compliance” — how well are boards, and the companies they are responsible for, dealing with the new realities of the post-Enron era.

I believe that within the next decade, we will see Board responsbility quickly evolve into a new and much more complex era than simply making sure that “i’s are dotted and the t’s are crossed.’ All we need are a few savvy lawyers to launch a few negligence suits against a few public companies, alleging that a Board failed to develop a plan for and respond to obvious future trends.

It’s a trend worth watching.

More information

Next governance grenade – Jim Carroll, August 2004

More than 94 Million Credit Card Accounts Compromised by TJX Theft

There are two types of people in the world — those who view the future with fear, worry and concern — and the rest of the people who look at the future as an opportunity.

The latter group are the innovators; the former group will do everything they can do dismiss the idea of doing anything differently. (They use the “innovation killer phrases” which I often use on stage…..)

I just grabbed a quick video clip from a talk I did for the Cedar Rapids, Iowa Chamber of Commerce earlier this fall (which drew a standing room only crowd of 800 people), in which I’m talking about the attitudes of farmers towards the future. I spent a bit of time talking about the 10 Big Trends for Agriculture, and put into perspective that we really need to focus on the opportunity of the upside.

It might be worth a watch, because it really puts these two camps into perspective.

It’s agriculture week! At least, it seems that way — on Friday, I keynoted the Alberta Beef Industry Conference; for three days this week, I’m speaking to a select group of growers who are customers of Syngenta, one of the world’s leading agribusinesses; on Friday, I keynote the Ontarion Farm Equipment Association, and two weeks hence, an association of soybean farmers!

I’m focusing on my trends for agriculture. What is fascinating with this group of people is that they tend to be some of the most innovative individuals on the planet. They’ve been regularly buffetted by the ups and downs of the agricultural cycle, the vagaries of weather, the unrelability of commodity markets, and a flood of new science, methodologies, treatments and seed varieties.

The typical city-dweller has an image of someone who complains and runs to the government for subsidies; the reality is that the typical farmer is an astute business person with a fine ear for innovation, someone who thrives by the exhiliaration and challenge of an extremely complex business; someone who is optimistic about the future and the potential profitability of their industry. The groups I have been dealing with relish learning about the new science surrounding the industry, and are eager to learn what needs to be done to continue going forward with a focus on opportunity.

Key fact: global food consumption is going to double in the next 20 years due to population growth. There is little new arable land coming on stream. This means existing producers will play a key role. Good thing, since their attitudes are certainly there!

I’ve got a number of keynotes coming up in the New Year focused on the agricultural sector, and have done quite a few in the past.

My insight resonates with the agricultural crowd, whether farmers, ranchers, or agricultural support and bio-science companies. I recently spoke to the top 100 cattle, stockyard and feedlot operators in the US at a private event in Sonoma County, California. The US Farm Credit Cooperative has brought me in twice. Want to think about opportunity? Read the post, Agriculture 2020! Innovation, Growth & Opportunity — and also read on below.

Jim Carroll was the keynote speaker for 2011 Texas Cattle Feeders Association annual conference, speaking about the massive growth opportunities in the world of health care. He has headlined a wide variety of agricultural events throughout the industry.

I’m preparing for a series of events at the end of February, and now is a good time as ever to put up a list of what I see happening.

Want more insight like this? Then read the post,

1. Massive growth in food demand: The UK Food and Agriculture Association estimates that the world population will increase 47%, to 8.9 billion, by 2050. That’s a potentially huge food marketplace. That fact, more than anything, spells the reality that the agricultural industry is full of potential opportunity!
2. A continuing rampup in efficiency: Simple fact: global agriculture must double in the next 30 years to sustain this type of population growth. Add this reality check: there is little new arable land in the world. The result is that existing producers will have to continue to focus on smarter, better, more efficient growing in order to meeting demand.
3. Hyper-science: One of the realities of the infinite idea loop in which we now find ourselves is this: while there are 19 million known chemical substances today, the number is constantly doubling every 13 years… with some 80 million by 2025, and 5 billion by 2100. Science is evolving at a furious pace, and with science at the root of agriculture, we will continue to see constant, relentless new methods of improving crop and livestock yield.
4. Innovation defines success: Growers that focus on innovation as a core value will find success; their innovation will focus on the triple-feature need for growth, efficiency and ingestion of new science. It will be by adopting new methodologies, products, partnerships and ideas that they will learn to thrive.
5. Retail and packaging innovation drive agricultural decisions: Do this: stare at a banana. Did you know that Chiquita banana has come up with a special membrane that doubles the shelf-life of the product, doing this regulating the flow of gases through the packaging? Take a look at Naturepops: each lollipop is wrapped in fully bio-degradable film made from plant matter, and the bags they come in are made from recycled paper, water-based ink and poly lactic acid made from cornstarch. There’s a huge amount of innovation happening with packaging companies and on the store shelf, and all of these trends have a big impact on agriculture.
6. Intelligent packaging moves front and center: Innovation with packaging will take an even bigger leap in years to come, and will involve hyperconnectivity, a trend that will be driven by food safety, tracability, country of origin and nutrition labelling needs. Our lives are soon to be transformed by packaging that can “connect” to the global data grid that surrounds us; and its’ role will have been transformed from being that of a “container of product” to an intelligent technology that will help us with use of the product, or which will help us address safety and tracability issues.
7. The energy opportunity: Agriculture is set to play a huge role as we wean ourselves away from our dependence on oil and natural gas. The US Department of Energy plans to see alternative fuels provide 5% of the nations energy by 2020, up from 1% today. And it is expected that there will be $1.2 billion in new income for farmers and rural landowners by getting involved with new energy sources such as windpower. Europe plans to have a market that involves at least 20% usage of bio-fuels by 2020, and Feed & Grain estimates that liquid fuels from agricultural feed could replace 25% to 30% of US petroleum imports by that time.
8. Convenience and health take center stage: We will continue to see rapid change in consumer taste and expectations as people comes to place more emphasis or doing their best with the little time that they have. For example, it is expected that fresh-cut snacks grew from an $8.8 billion market in 2003 to $10.5 billion by 2004, according to the International Fresh-Cut Produce Association, as part of a trend in which produce and fruit continue to compete with traditional snacks. Expect such unique trends to growth both in terms of number and rapidity.
9. Direct consumer-producer relationships blossom: As this technology evolves and as people become more concerned about the safety of what they eat, a natural result is a frenetic rate of growth in direct relationships between growers and consumers. Check out SouthDakotaCertifiedBeef– that type of thing defines the future of this trend!
10. Generational transformation: perhaps the biggest trend is that we are about to witness a sea-change in the rate by which new ideas in the world of agriculture are accepted, as a new generation of technology-weaned, innovative younger people take over the family farm.
11. Partnership defines success: If there is one trend I emphasize in every industry I’m involved with, it is that no one individual or organization can know everything there is to know. As I indicated in my I found the future in manure article, this trend is also becoming prevalent in agriculture. We will continue to see an increasing number of partnerships between growers and advisers, suppliers, buyers, retailers and just about everyone else, so that they learn to deal with the massive complexities that emerge from rapid change and innovation.

Wait — that’s 11 trends! And that’s indicative of just how rapidly this industry is set to be transformed……

Technology key to future of ag
11 November 2005
The Californian, Salinas

Industry women hear message at peninsula conference

The Salinas Californian

MONTEREY – The future of American agriculture will hinge on changes in technology and marketing, agricultural officials and an author told an audience of women agricultural leaders Thursday.

Agricultural growth was the topic as about 300 people attended a dinner on the first day of the four-day American Agri-Women Conference at the Monterey Plaza Hotel and Spa.

Through workshops and field visits, the goal of the conference is to explore how pervasive change is impacting the U.S. agribusiness industry.

The ag industry must continue to listen to its customers if it wants to keep up with a fast-paced market, author Jim Carroll told the audience at Thursday’s dinner.

“Innovation has swept the food sector to where the package is now the brand,” Carroll said.

Quick: what’s the average number of fridges per 100 people in China today?

If you guessed 82, you’re right.

And if you knew that there were but 29 per 100 in 1990, then you have found the secret to innovation. After all, if you think about it, that’s a massive increase in the potential market for food exports……

Innovative people focus on opportunity, not threat.

When confronted with the issue of globalization, most people sit back and stress out about “how bad things are going to be.”

Innovators sit back and look at globalization and think, “man, what an opportunity!”

It’s all in how you approach the future. Last Thursday, I gave the dinner keynote in Monterey, California for the American Agriwomen Association, and chatted with the folks about the key trends impacting agriculture. And that’s the type of message I brought — don’t focus on threat — think of opportunity! There’s a lot of fridges to be filled!

This week, I’ll be keynoting the National Seafood Sector Council with a similar message, and will take a look at global packaging, food and consumer market trends. Then I’ll be doing an awards dinner in Wolfville, Nova Scotia for a group of community innovators. Both talks will carry a similar theme — if you look at the future as nothing more than a threat to worry about, rather than an opportunity to be grabbed — then you are looking in the wrong place!

Think fridges!

On Monday, I’ll be the luncheon keynote luncheon speaker at ICE – The Tech Conference in Edmonton.

My topic? “I Found the Future in Manure: How to Capitalize on the Rapid Evolution of Science”

Here’s the description for my talk:

“In the last decade, the world has seen the emergence of a globally connected scientific mind. The impact is dramatic — while there are 19 million known chemical substances today, it is estimated that by 2025 there will be some 300 million — and 5 billion by 2100. As Apple learned with the iPod, the discovery of a single new chemical substance can lead to the emergence of a billion dollar market, literally overnight. Since science is at the heart of every industry — and with such rates of discovery, innovation abounds. Join leading international futurist, trends and innovation expert Jim Carroll as he explores the impact of hyper-science, and what it means in terms of bio-tech, nanotech and everything-tech. What does this have to do with manure? Join Jim and find out!

If you search my Web site a bit, you’ll find the article that brought this whole topic up.

Oh, and for the fun of it, I’m going to explain the relationship between manure, a ’57 Chevy, and transportation in the year 2016.

Seriously.

“Believe it or not, manure can teach us a great deal about the future of business.” That’s what I learned about the future from manure, and it’s covered this week in my column in Profit.

Here’s the article!